There may be 345 million Americans from sea to shining sea, but on Nov. 5 only a sliver of them will determine whether Donald Trump returns to the White House or Kamala Harris makes history as the first woman elected U.S. president.

Because of the country’s Electoral College, the presidency is won state by state. Forty-three of these are considered to be firmly in the camp of one party or the other. Just seven could go either way and tip the election.

While this sort of regionalism has always been central to presidential elections, the specific states in play have shifted over time – a result of population and political trends. Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida were all swing states a decade ago, but the first two are now reliably Democratic at the presidential level, while the latter two consistently vote Republican.

The incentives of this system are easy to guess. Presidential candidates, campaign staff and volunteers are spending almost all of their time appealing to voters in these seven places and ignoring everywhere else. The airwaves and phone screens in these states are saturated by tens of millions of dollars worth of political advertising.

While the nationalization of politics means that the same issues that matter in Nevada matter in Pennsylvania – abortion for Democrats, for instance, or immigration for Republicans – each of these states’ unique features will help shape the result.

Every state has a number of electoral votes allocated based on its total of senators and representatives. To win the presidency, a candidate needs 270 of these, an absolute majority. Assign votes for each swing state below to game out the potential paths to victory.