Donald Trump speaks during a press conference, the day after being found guilty of falsifying business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, at Trump Tower in New York City, on May 31.Brendan McDermid/Reuters
On his first full day as a convicted felon, Donald Trump rambled and raged for 33 minutes, seeking to reframe his hush-money trial as the neck-and-neck election race with President Joe Biden heats up.
Standing in front of a bank of gold elevators in the lobby of Trump Tower on Friday for what had been billed as a news conference, he baselessly claimed that Mr. Biden had orchestrated the prosecution. “They are in total conjunction with the White House,” he declared.
He derided Justice Juan Merchan, who presided over the trial, as “a devil” who “literally crucified” witnesses. He called Michael Cohen, his former lawyer, and more recently a star prosecution witness, a “sleazebag.”
And he maintained that there was nothing criminal about the actions for which he was convicted – 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. “I paid a lawyer, totally legal, I paid a lawyer a legal expense,” he said. He vowed to appeal.
Mr. Biden fired back, accusing Mr. Trump of undermining the rule of law. “It’s reckless, it’s dangerous, it’s irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don’t like the verdict,” he said at the White House.
The clash set the tone for the pair’s presidential rematch, a campaign that may in large part be defined by how voters see Mr. Trump’s convictions. It also foreshadowed the legal questions that continue to hang over the former president: his sentence, his appeals and his ability to travel and to vote.
The next legal steps
Mr. Trump will return to court for sentencing on July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee to officially nominate him. Each count carries a potential sentence of up to four years in prison. In a case such as his, incarceration is unlikely. A more common outcome is probation.
“You’re talking about a 77-year-old man who is a first-time offender in a non-violent crime and has a record of some achievement. In normal New York practice, this would result in no jail time,” said John Coffee, a Columbia University law professor.
Still, he said, Justice Merchan could opt for a short sentence to send a message about the importance of holding powerful people accountable. Mr. Trump’s repeated attacks on the judge – whom he accused of being “corrupt” because his daughter runs a political consulting firm that has worked for Democrats – might also influence the sentence, Prof. Coffee said.
Donald Trump is a criminal – and his conviction is a catastrophe for America
Either way, Mr. Trump would likely have his sentence stayed pending appeal. He has two different levels of appeal in New York State and could also try the U.S. Supreme Court. All of this would likely push the start of a sentence past the Nov. 5 election.
Mr. Trump also faces three other criminal prosecutions, but none are likely to come to trial before the election.
The campaign
Mr. Trump’s new legal status does not bar him from running for president – nor do any of the other criminal accusations against him. The U.S. Supreme Court in March overturned an effort by Colorado and other states to disqualify Mr. Trump on the basis that he had “engaged in insurrection” by trying to overturn the result of the 2020 election.
Several polls suggest that his conviction could move votes, at least for a small number of Americans. A Léger survey last month, for example, found that in a scenario where Mr. Trump was convicted of a crime, Mr. Biden held a 6-per-cent lead among voters; without a conviction, Mr. Trump held a 1-per-cent lead.
Such numbers months before an election may be small. But given that a few thousand voters can tip the tightest swing states, that could make a difference for the moderate voters Mr. Biden is trying to sway.
More broadly, views of Mr. Trump are so hardened as to polarize the electorate. A YouGov poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the conviction found that 26 per cent of surveyed U.S. adults were more likely to vote for him, and 27 per cent less likely. Another 39 per cent said the conviction will make no difference at all.
The divided country
For every one of the 34 counts against him, Mr. Trump is boasting that he has taken in more than US$1.5-million in funds. In the hours after the verdict, his campaign says, he raised US$53-million.
Nearly all Republican leaders loyally lined up behind Mr. Trump. One of the few who called for people to respect the verdict – Larry Hogan, the former Maryland governor currently running for Senate – found himself immediately under fire from his own party. “You just ended your campaign,” Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to Mr. Trump, wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter) directed at Hogan.
Some conservatives called for Republican attorneys-general and prosecutors to indict as many Democratic officials as possible. “I want to see lists of which Democrat officials are going to be put in prison,” Sean Davis of the Federalist website wrote on social media.
Will Trump be able to enter Canada?
The conviction could erect new barriers to Mr. Trump outside the United States: Canada and several dozen other countries generally bar travel by criminals.
This could become particularly tricky if Mr. Trump wins in November. Among other international engagements, he would presumably want to attend Canada’s G7 summit next year. In such a case, Mr. Trump would have to receive special dispensation from Ottawa to cross the border.
Otherwise, he can expect little change.
As a criminal, Mr. Trump “could be excluded from certain employment opportunities and housing opportunities, although with his financial situation, such as it is, this shouldn’t cause him many problems whatsoever,” said Seth Chazin, a criminal lawyer in San Francisco who specializes in white-collar crimes.
While Florida, where Mr. Trump has his primary residence, bars felons from casting ballots, in the case of convictions in other states, it defers to those states’ laws. Under New York’s rules, felons can continue voting so long as they are not in prison on election day.
So, provided Mr. Trump can avoid or put off a stint behind bars, he should be able to vote for himself in November.