Illustration of the Statue of Liberty worriedly reading a mobile phone. U.S. presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have vastly different visions for how they want to govern, and how they see the world.Illustration by Romain Lasser
On Tuesday, America is set to decide the course of its politics for the next four years.
The two candidates running to be president, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, have vastly different visions for how they want to govern, and how they see the world.
Their diverging policies also apply to the business and financial worlds, with each having outlined in varying detail how they’ll handle such questions as taxes, energy initiatives, global trade and more.
Here’s a look at what they’ve said during their campaigns, and how Globe journalists and columnists have analyzed those propositions.
12 charts that show Kamala Harris’s and Donald Trump’s visions for the U.S. economy
The Globe and Mail
The unemployment rate in the U.S. sits at roughly 4 per cent, the stock market is riding a lengthy bull run and Americans are starting businesses like never before. Despite a rapid increase in interest rates over 2022 and 2023, the United States has not only avoided a recession, but it’s growing so quickly that it’s leaving peer countries in its wake.
Harris can point to any number of indicators that show the economy is scorching under the Democrats. And yet, Americans are feeling pretty glum about the state of affairs. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index has been considerably weaker under U.S. President Joe Biden than under his Republican predecessor, Trump.
Our reporters took a look at the Harris and Trump campaign promises and track records – and wrangled the data – on a range of financial issues. On corporate growth, for instance, Harris has promised to boost entrepreneurship and tax the wealthy, while Trump has vowed to lower the corporate tax rate for companies that make products in America.
Why Canada’s economy is facing a turbulent four years – regardless of a Trump or Harris win
Global leaders and ministers Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland, Robert Lighthizer, Donald Trump, Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal and former Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto participate in a signing ceremony for the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, in Buenos Aires, on Nov. 30, 2018.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
The results of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election carry massive implications for the Canadian economy, which depends, in large part, on a healthy trade relationship with its wealthy southern neighbour. Canada’s deep trade ties to the U.S. mean there will be spillover effects no matter the winner.
Trump’s promise of a 10-per-cent to 20-per-cent tariff on all imports into the U.S. poses a big problem for Canada. With more than 70 per cent of Canadian exports going to the U.S. and a large amount of investment premised on access to the much larger market to the south, some experts estimate it could lead to a 1.6-per-cent drop in Canadian productivity.
Harris is less of a threat to the status quo, but did vote against ratifying the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). And she has been vice-president in an administration that has kept many of the tariffs from the Trump presidency in place and raised some dramatically.
Both candidates have said they’ll reopen USMCA when it comes up for review in 2026.
Our journalists also explored the potential impacts on growth, taxes, migration, trade, energy and markets.
Opinion: A Donald Trump win could trigger a global trade war – with no winners
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are seen in a combination of file photographs taken in New York City on Oct. 17 and in Chandler, Ariz., on Oct. 10.Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Protectionism was one of Trump’s main economic themes while in the White House the first time. This campaign, he has threatened a ramped-up tariff regime that would include 20-per-cent tariffs on all imports and up to 60 per cent on Chinese imports. He has mentioned tariffs as high as 200 per cent on some foreign vehicles.
This apparent plan seeking to maximize exports by punishing imports could damage the American economy big time, as well as the economies of Europe and the rest of the world. The risk for all countries is that Trump might not realize his mistake until severe damage is done.
Read the full column from European bureau chief Eric Reguly here.
What accounts could look like for investors on Nov. 6
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on July 22. Columnist Gordon Pape predicts soaring markets, at least for a few months, in the event of a Trump victory.Spencer Platt/Getty Images
While it’s quite possible there won’t yet be a result on Nov. 5, columnist Gordon Pape has reassuring words for investors who are concerned about what may happen to their money with either election outcome, specifically when it comes to dividends.
He predicts soaring markets, at least for a few months, in the event of a Trump victory. With a Harris win, he says the markets may see a downturn with her less business-friendly policies, but that dividends are unlikely to be affected. Read Pape’s full column here.
Investing columnist Tom Bradley shares a similar perspective, noting that no matter what polls or campaign promises say, companies keep growing, innovating and allocating capital to where they find the best opportunities. “If the U.S. becomes less desirable to invest in after Nov. 5, management will turn their focus to other parts of the world that will be more desirable,” he writes. Read the full column here.
How Canada’s financial institutions could be affected
Bank towers in Toronto's financial district in a file photo taken June 16, 2010. IG Private Wealth Management chief investment strategist Philip Petursson says a Trump win would be better for Canadian banks.Adrien Veczan/The Canadian Press
Canadian banks and insurers with businesses in the United States can expect two very different possible scenarios after the U.S. election.
A Trump victory could see less regulatory scrutiny, lower corporate taxes and an inflationary environment that would prop up profits.
A win by Harris would likely preserve the tougher regulatory environment introduced by President Joe Biden and see an increase in the corporate tax rate.
Banks with significant U.S. businesses, including BMO and TD, could benefit from Trump’s promises, while institutions with plans that include countries with large trade imbalances with the U.S., like Scotiabank, might run into challenges.
“A Trump presidency would be incrementally better for the Canadian banks than the Harris presidency,” IG Private Wealth Management chief investment strategist Philip Petursson said in an interview. “A Trump presidency could see a steeper yield curve and a stronger U.S. dollar.”
Read the full take from analysts here.
With files from Matt Lundy, Mark Rendell, Jason Kirby, Stefanie Marotta, Clare O’Hara, Eric Reguly, Gordon Pape and Tom Bradley