Trump’s threat to ‘encourage’ Russian attacks on NATO allies that don’t pay enough sparks concern

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Donald Trump says he once threatened to “encourage” Russia to invade U.S. allies that fail to pay their share of NATO costs, an assertion that is sending alarm through the alliance as leaders grapple with the rising possibility of the former president returning to the White House.

The threat lands as Ukraine warns it is running out of money and weapons to hold back Moscow’s invasion and President Joe Biden’s effort to send more aid remains stuck in Congress.

At a campaign rally on Saturday evening in South Carolina, Mr. Trump recounted a conversation with the president of an unnamed “big country.” The other leader, Mr. Trump said, asked whether the U.S. would protect his country from a Russian attack if the country missed its targets on NATO spending.

“No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay, you gotta pay your bills,” Mr. Trump said he told the leader. “And the money came flowing in.”

Mr. Trump has long complained that most countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have failed to honour a 2014 pledge to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence. Canada, for instance, spends about 1.38 per cent.

But his Saturday comments were the strongest indication yet that, if he gets back into office, Mr. Trump might violate NATO’s Article 5 collective defence commitment and allow Russia to invade vulnerable members of the alliance. Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have all expressed fear of Russian aggression.

“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the U.S., and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement after Mr. Trump’s speech.

Poland’s Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz warned on social media that “the entire NATO” would be weaker if any member failed to defend the others.

Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair’s office touted the value of NATO but did not directly address Mr. Trump’s threat.

“For almost 75 years, NATO has kept all of its members safer than they would be on their own,” spokeswoman Diana Ebadi wrote in an e-mail on Sunday. “In the face of Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, NATO’s mission is more important than ever.”

Ms. Ebadi would not say when or if Canada planned to meet its spending commitment. “Our contributions and defence investments remain on an upward trajectory,” she wrote. Since 2014, Canada’s NATO contributions have fluctuated between 1.01 per cent and 1.44 per cent of GDP, according to the alliance’s figures.

Thierry Breton, the European Union commissioner for internal market, said the conversation Mr. Trump was referring to at his rally occurred in 2020 with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, in Davos, Switzerland. During the meeting, at which Mr. Breton was also present, he said Mr. Trump told Ms. von der Leyen: “If you think that NATO will defend you, you’re wrong.”

Mr. Breton, speaking on French news channel LCI, said Mr. Trump appeared to be having “a little memory problem” in incorrectly recalling his interlocutor as a male country leader rather than the female chief executive of the EU.

Mr. Breton said that Europe had to prepare for the possibility of the U.S. cutting off funding for NATO or military aid to Ukraine. “We no longer have the choice to not increase our defence production capacity,” he said.

In his campaign platform, Mr. Trump promises a “re-evaluating” of “NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission.” He also pledges to end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours but does not say how exactly he would do that. This has stoked fears that he plans to either abandon both NATO and Ukraine or force Kyiv into a settlement that involves large concessions to Russia.

Polling of the likely presidential election matchup shows Mr. Trump tied with or leading Mr. Biden, a Democrat, nationally and in key swing states.

Mr. Biden and a bipartisan majority in Congress have so far sent US$75-billion in aid to Ukraine. But the next tranche of funds has been held up by far-right Republicans despite warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that a lack of continuing help from the U.S. will doom his country’s war effort.

The Senate on Sunday continued work on a US$95-billion military aid package for Ukraine and Israel but it remains unclear whether it will ultimately pass Congress.

Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump’s only remaining opponent for the Republican nomination, said that the U.S. must use other means to press the rest of NATO members into meeting their commitments.

“We do want NATO allies to pull their weight,” she said on CBS. “But there are ways you can do that without sitting there and telling Russia, ‘Have your way with these countries.’”