Supporters of Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump display a banner as they attend a campaign event in Traverse City, Mich., on Oct. 25.Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
Little more than a week remains before the American presidential election, and the candidates are traversing the country, their advertisements are pulsating on television and social media, and their people are working to get as many of their supporters to the polls as possible. No suburb in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan, among other places, will be safe from a campaign assault.
The result is high stakes, high drama – and high stress.
A new poll released this week by the American Psychological Association found that 69 per cent of the country considers the election a significant source of stress for them. A third reported that election-related stress was causing strain among themselves and members of their families. Many Canadians may feel the same.
Here, in a guide for the perplexed, is what you can safely ignore in the final days:
Where former president Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris turn up in the last week or so of campaigning
There is no mystery here, because by now everyone knows that in this phase of a U.S. presidential election, the candidates take on the wisdom of real-estate agents: What matters is location, location, location. Actually in this case it is seven locations.
Those seven are the swing states. The campaign has essentially rendered 43 of the American states flyover territory. That’s because political and demographic data have rendered them reliable parts of either the Trump or Harris coalitions. The candidates know, for example, that Massachusetts will vote Democratic and Kansas will go Republican. No need to campaign there, or in the 41 other states where the outcome is certain.
One thing you can be sure of: The two candidates will be in Pennsylvania a lot. It has 19 electoral votes and is probably the most critical of the swing states.
The cascade of polls coming out this weekend and next
There will be a flood of information in the next several days. Ignore most of it. Especially ignore the national polls. They don’t matter. The election won’t be decided by the popular vote; both the 2000 and 2016 elections were won by the candidate (George W. Bush and Mr. Trump, respectively) who lost the popular vote.
Here’s an important nuance: If, for example, Mr. Trump, as expected, is close to Ms. Harris in the final moments, it may be because his numbers in California and New York, which will be Harris strongholds, are better than expected, though not enough better to swing either state his way. Those extra voters in secure Democratic states could bulk up his national numbers without affecting the outcome in the swing states. The reverse could be true for Ms. Harris in places such as Mississippi and Alabama that she surely will lose. The Black vote in those states could bulk up her popular-vote numbers without affecting the Electoral College.
Remember this: In every election cycle, the polls undercount one of the candidates. The pollsters know this; it’s part of their trade. What they don’t know is which candidate their surveys are undercounting. They’ll know this the day after the election. But for right now, realize that in a close election, the experts really have no expertise in the final days.
Reports about the surge in early voting, which could exceed 20 million ballots this weekend
It was a factor in 2020, to Joe Biden’s advantage. It likely won’t be a factor in 2024. Though Mr. Trump spent much of the past four years inveighing against early voting, this year he altered course and urged his supporters to vote early. That has muddied the matter. Despite what the campaigns and so-called experts will say, no one can be sure who those early voters are.
The American jobs report being released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics a mere four days before Election Day
Whichever way those numbers go, the dynamics of the contest likely won’t be altered. The two candidates’ views and campaign pitches have solidified most voters’ views and the number of undecideds are very few. Besides, with early voting, there are fewer potential voters who could be affected.
“Given how close the jobs report is to Election Day, it’s hard to see it making any significant difference in how people vote,” said Robert Feinberg, an American University economist. “There seems to be a disconnect for many voters between the historically strong labour market and perceptions of the economy, and one more data point is unlikely to change that.”
Worries about potential corruption of the electoral process
Justin Levitt, an LMU Loyola Law School specialist in election law, calls this talk “electoral-process porn.” He urges the public not to indulge in it – despite the enormous amount of talk about the ability of well-funded activists to manipulate the election.
“There’s no reason to think someone will grab a bag of ballots and destroy them,” he said in an interview. “That’s not a thing. People also may be worried about a legal trick that turns an election loss into an election win. That’s just not possible.
“The election process is designed to tell us who won by telling us whom we chose, and imagining it can be deployed to do something different than that is misunderstanding why and how it was built. It is the equivalent of asking: Does the law allow us to break into our neighbour’s house and steal a car?”