For more than two weeks, heavily armed gangs have been seizing control of Haiti’s capital. They have stormed government buildings in the heart of Port-au-Prince, attacked police stations and busted thousands of people out of prison. They have blockaded the port, airport and highways, preventing supplies of food, medicine and gasoline from getting in and residents from escaping.
The proximate cause is the unpopular government of Haiti’s unelected prime minister, Ariel Henry. But the roots of the crisis go back much further, to the decades-long intertwining of gangsters, politicians and business leaders in the country.
An international summit in Jamaica this week produced a possible solution: a Transitional Presidential Council to replace Mr. Henry. It is still unclear when it will take power, much less whether it will be able to tamp down the violence. Also up in the air is a long-delayed Kenyan-led security force meant to stabilize the country.
Both measures are also contentious. Some Haitian observers doubt the ability of the political parties meant to run the interim government to co-operate. A history of violence and exploitation during previous foreign interventions, meanwhile, has many wary of the current plan to send in international forces.
Canada, for its part, chartered a helicopter to partly evacuate its embassy in Port-au-Prince this week. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has tried to walk a fine line between staying engaged with the country – with which Canada has close ties, including the large Haitian diaspora in Montreal – while resisting being drawn further into the chaos.
Mr. Henry, a 74-year-old neurosurgeon, was appointed prime minister in July, 2021 by then-president Jovenel Moïse. Mr. Henry took control of the government days later after Mr. Moïse was assassinated in his home by commandos. Mr. Henry has repeatedly delayed holding elections, saying the country’s security situation must improve first. Instead, the situation worsened, with gang blockades of Port-au-Prince’s port and hundreds of kidnappings-for-ransom every year.
Starting Feb. 29, while Mr. Henry was in Kenya pushing for the security force, the gangs launched a co-ordinated offensive. Their highest-profile leader, Jimmy (Barbecue) Chérizier, framed the carnage as a protest against the Prime Minister’s leadership. Unable to return to Haiti and refused entry to the Dominican Republic, Mr. Henry has been holed up in Puerto Rico since last week.
Earlier this week, leaders of Caribbean Community, or CARICOM, countries met in Jamaica with representatives from Canada and the U.S. to hammer out a solution. The loss of international backing, which previously sustained Mr. Henry in the absence of an electoral mandate, pushed him to agree to resign as part of a political transition.
In some ways, the current fighting is the culmination of mounting gang power in the country that far predates the current government. The relationship between Haitian leaders and armed enforcers is long-standing, including the 1950s creation of dictator François (Papa Doc) Duvalier’s Tonton Macoute secret police.
Most experts peg the start of the current gang alliances to the 1990s, led by Fanmi Lavalas, the political party of former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Following Mr. Aristide’s example, other political and corporate leaders began using gangsters to back their power, said Michael Deibert, a Haiti researcher for the Center for International Studies at the University of Lisbon. For instance Michel Martelly, another former president, has been accused by the United Nations of financing several gangs and even setting one up.
“The more the political and business classes became entwined with these gangs, the weaker the state got,” Mr. Deibert said. “The current violence is the most dramatic illustration of the complete collapse of the Haitian state.”
The Jamaica summit produced an agreement for Haiti to be run by a Transitional Presidential Council, which will consist of seven people appointed by the country’s political parties, plus two non-voting representatives of civil society and religious groups.
Exactly when the group will take power is unclear. One of the seven political parties has so far refused to nominate a representative. Some Haitians aren’t sure the complicated structure will allow for swift agreement on how to stabilize the country and organize elections.
Mathias Pierre, a former cabinet minister, contends that it would make more sense to follow Haiti’s constitutional provisions for filling a presidential vacancy. This would entail the head of the Cour de cassation, the country’s supreme court, taking power and holding elections within three months.
Also unclear is how the new government will re-establish state authority. “How are you going to install civil leaders in an environment controlled by gang members?” Mr. Pierre said.
Monique Clesca, a human rights activist and former UN official in Port-au-Prince, agreed that making the transitional council work will be “extremely difficult” because of all the different factions involved. Still, she contended, it is a good idea.
There were irregularities in the nominating process for the supreme court, she said, which means the judges “are not legitimate either” and installing one as interim president would not be a better solution.
President Joe Biden, under political pressure over waves of migrants from Haiti and other countries arriving at the U.S. southern border, pressed Mr. Trudeau to organize an effort to crack down on gangs. Mr. Trudeau demurred, pledging money but declining to lead a security mission.
Kenya ultimately agreed to take charge of a “stabilization” force. Its funding, however, is still not entirely in place and the Kenyan government has been locked in a court battle with domestic opponents of the deployment. Kenyan President William Ruto said this week the mission would start once the interim government is in place.
The plan also faces significant skepticism given the history of foreign interventions in Haiti. During a UN mission from 2004 to 2017, for instance, peacekeepers caused a cholera outbreak and ran a child-trafficking ring.
“When something is not working, you get rid of it,” said Chantal Merzier-Elie, a former Haitian government policy adviser, over the prospect of peacekeepers returning.
A more useful action for Ottawa and Washington to take, she said, would be to break Haiti’s culture of impunity for elites who have allied themselves with gangs. Many of these people face financial sanctions and Ms. Merzier-Elie contended it was time for the international community to help Haitian authorities bring them to justice.
“Canada and the United States, they put those sanctions out and now those people are roaming free in Haiti,” she said. “They should help the National Police arrest these people and keep them somewhere where they cannot escape.”
Mr. Pierre, the former cabinet minister, said at least part of the way out of the crisis must be restoring the power of government forces over that of the gangs. In one irony, a U.S. arms embargo on Haiti has made it harder for police to buy weapons while illegal American guns have continued to flow, he said.
He also argued that stabilizing the security situation must move in tandem with preparing elections. “The new Haiti will not be born from gang members, from corrupt politicians. The new Haiti will be built by decent Haitians whose voices need to be heard.”
Adrian Morrow