Then-U.S. president Donald Trump introduces Florida Governor Ron DeSantis during a homecoming campaign rally at the BB&T Center in Sunrise, Fla., on Nov. 26, 2019.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
It sure is getting crowded on the Republican stage that will decide the party’s next U.S. presidential nominee.
So crowded that the candidates’ struggle for attention will grow even more desperate. Former vice-president Mike Pence filed his paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for president on Monday. Former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey enters the race on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota formally joins the field.
So crowded that eight declared or possible candidates for the party’s 2024 nomination found their way to Iowa on Saturday night for a motorcycle-themed barbecue event.
So crowded that the planners of the first debate are contemplating splitting the field and holding two separate events to give all the contenders a chance to be seen, heard and evaluated by a party yearning to return to the White House.
So crowded that there are two candidates from two important Southern political states – an unusual geographical collision causing an unusual amount of internecine tension in both states, one of them (Florida) a huge source of convention delegates and the other (South Carolina) the site of a critical early political primary.
So crowded that the beneficiary of the collision of candidates benefits the one candidate who stands above then all: Donald Trump.
Who’s running for president in 2024?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Joe Biden, 80
U.S. President
(2021-)
Robert Kennedy Jr, 69
Nephew of former
President Kennedy
Marianne Williamson, 70
Best-selling author and
self-help guru
REPUBLICAN PARTY
Donald Trump, 76
U.S. President
(2017-2021)
Nikki Haley, 51
Former U.S.
ambassador to UN
Vivek Ramaswamy, 37
Indian-American
biotech millionaire
Tim Scott, 57
South Carolina
Senator
Asa Hutchinson, 72
Former Arkansas
Governor
Larry Elder, 71
Conservative talk
radio host
Ron DeSantis, 44
Florida
Governor
Chris Christie, 60
New Jersey Governor
Mike Pence, 63
Former Vice President
Doug Burgum, 66
North Dakota Governor
Sources: graphic news; Reuters, The Hill; Newscom; Getty Images
Who’s running for president in 2024?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Joe Biden, 80
U.S. President
(2021-)
Robert Kennedy Jr, 69
Nephew of former
President Kennedy
Marianne Williamson, 70
Best-selling author and
self-help guru
REPUBLICAN PARTY
Donald Trump, 76
U.S. President
(2017-2021)
Nikki Haley, 51
Former U.S.
ambassador to UN
Vivek Ramaswamy, 37
Indian-American
biotech millionaire
Tim Scott, 57
South Carolina
Senator
Asa Hutchinson, 72
Former Arkansas
Governor
Larry Elder, 71
Conservative talk
radio host
Ron DeSantis, 44
Florida
Governor
Chris Christie, 60
New Jersey Governor
Mike Pence, 63
Former Vice President
Doug Burgum, 66
North Dakota Governor
Sources: graphic news; Reuters, The Hill; Newscom; Getty Images
Who’s running for president in 2024?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Joe Biden, 80
U.S. President
(2021-)
Robert Kennedy Jr, 69
Nephew of former
President Kennedy
Marianne Williamson, 70
Best-selling author and
self-help guru
REPUBLICAN PARTY
Donald Trump, 76
U.S. President
(2017-2021)
Nikki Haley, 51
Former U.S.
ambassador to UN
Vivek Ramaswamy, 37
Indian-American
biotech millionaire
Tim Scott, 57
South Carolina
Senator
Asa Hutchinson, 72
Former Arkansas
Governor
Larry Elder, 71
Conservative talk
radio host
Ron DeSantis, 44
Florida
Governor
Chris Christie, 60
New Jersey Governor
Mike Pence, 63
Former Vice President
Doug Burgum, 66
North Dakota Governor
Sources: graphic news; Reuters, The Hill; Newscom; Getty Images
The former president doesn’t only stand above the others. He stands apart from them as well.
While Republican planners are beginning to organize the Aug. 23 debate in Milwaukee, Mr. Trump is contemplating not even attending. The thinking: He’s a magnet for attention, so why turn up and allow others a chance for the exposure they crave, or the chance to cut him down that they need if they want to emerge as the top alternative to the 45th president?
Mr. Trump wasn’t at the colourful Roast and Ride event that Sen. Joni Ernst sponsored at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. While entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley got their pictures taken by a Des Moines Register photographer in front of the hay bales that are the de rigueur backdrop for Iowa voters, and while Mr. Pence spoke from the back of a pickup truck, the former president was nowhere to be seen.
And yet his presence was everywhere. He’s by far the party’s front-runner. He’s the celestial body that changes the orbits of all the other planets in the Republican universe. Bombastic and boastful, he’s an immense figure in the party’s conversation, even when he’s thousands of kilometres away.
And one of the topics that dominates the conversation when Republicans gather is whether there simply are too many candidates in the 2024 race.
On the one hand the field of contenders – including the two South Carolinians, Ms. Haley and Sen. Tim Scott – is an emblem of the leadership depth of the Republican Party. That is a quality that the Democrats, who have no such richness should President Joe Biden decide not to run next year, do not possess.
On the other hand, the crowded field threatens to replicate the 2016 Republican race, when 16 candidates split the party’s vote and allowed Mr. Trump to emerge as the leader even though he often failed even to approach a majority. His victory in New Hampshire, the first primary, for example, came with 35 per cent of the vote.
Right now, the struggle for the other candidates is to break the 1 per cent threshold in some polls (not exactly an indicator of huge support), while having 40,000 unique donors (no easy task) from more than 200 individual donors in 20 different states (an even more formidable obstacle for less well-known aspirants). Those requirements for inclusion in the summer debate were announced Friday.
Such standards prompted indignant responses from lesser-known Republican candidates who want to replicate the success Jimmy Carter enjoyed in 1976, when he went from being what he called “an asterisk in the polls” to winning the caucuses in Iowa, the first contest in the presidential race, to the White House.
“The 40,000 donor threshold will keep some candidates from being on the debate stage and benefits candidates who generate online donations through extreme rhetoric and scare tactics,” said former Governor Ada Hutchinson of Arkansas, a vociferous Trump opponent, in a statement. “It also deprives the voters in Iowa and other early states of an opportunity to evaluate the entire field of candidates.”
Both Iowa and New Hampshire, which votes eight days after the Iowa caucuses, require what political professionals call “retail politics” – the campaign technique Mr. Carter perfected in both states 47 years ago. That requires courting voters in tiny groups, often around supper tables or in remote rural crossroads.
That sort of voter courtship has been an important test for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who in his early outings last week in Iowa and New Hampshire has tried to overcome his awkwardness in these settings. Governor Burgum —along with Mr. Hutchinson, Mr. Pence, Ms. Haley and Mr. Christie, all former governors — are accustomed to such circumstances.
So, too, is Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, a state where political meetings sometimes occur even in tiny mountain-climbing stores best known for their sales of second-hand crampons. Mr. Sununu has been speaking with candidates about forging an agreement to drop out of the race if they have weak early performances so as to prevent Mr. Trump from squeaking to victory with small pluralities.
But at least the crowded field won’t get even more congested this week. Mr. Sununu, who toyed with the notion of running himself, said Monday that he wouldn’t enter the race.