Former UN ambassador and 2024 U.S. presidential hopeful Nikki Haley speaks to Iowa residents during a visit in Spirit Lake, Iowa, on Dec. 9 ahead of the Iowa caucus.CHRISTIAN MONTERROSA/Getty Images
The last question before Americans vote in the presidential primaries – and for months it has been a consequential and substantial mystery – now has been answered.
Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, determined to keep Donald Trump from being the Republican presidential nominee, is siding with former governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina.
Mr. Sununu, a four-term governor of the state that holds the first primary, and the son of a three-term governor, has a natural affinity for state leaders, citing their need to provide balanced budgets and the relevance of their executive, rather than legislative, experience. For that reason, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida held out hope until now that he might win this endorsement, to pair with the support he received earlier this fall from Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, which holds the first caucuses Jan. 15, eight days before New Hampshire’s primary.
Over the past several months, Mr. Sununu has appeared with all the Republican candidates challenging Mr. Trump, including Mr. DeSantis. But anyone who witnessed Mr. Sununu joining Ms. Haley at a Hooksett, N.H., campaign event late last month saw the natural ease between the two, even if Mr. Sununu waved off appeals from the crowd to provide an endorsement right away.
Mr. Sununu has said for months that he wanted to use his endorsement to help clear away all of the alternatives to Mr. Trump but one, thereby increasing the chances of denying the nomination to the former president.
“If we can get it to a stage where it is a one-on-one race before Super Tuesday, we have a shot of beating him,” he said in an interview with the Globe this summer. “It can’t be two-on-one. It has to be one-on-one.”
On the surface, gubernatorial endorsements have little direct power to affect the outcome of presidential primaries, and with a small state work force in New Hampshire, there are few government employees to provide on-the-ground organizational efforts on their own time. But endorsements from a prominent (and immensely popular) governor of an important state can generate news coverage that, in turn, can have a ripple effect.
“If you’re a voter who is determined to defeat Trump,” said Brendan Nyhan, a Dartmouth College political scientist, “then this is a signal that you can use your vote most effectively by going for Haley, at least here in New Hampshire.”
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, speculated that another blow to Mr. DeSantis, whose support has plummeted in recent months, might injure his prospects in Iowa. Mr. DeSantis has visited all 99 counties in an effort to make his stand in a state where evangelicals and other social conservatives have backed the winner in the past five contests.
“This endorsement is Sununu’s blessing, and the timing is important,” said Mr. Smith. “The Republicans not named Trump have to winnow their field down as quickly as possible. And if coverage of this endorsement helps [Haley] pass DeSantis in Iowa, then DeSantis won’t have much of a future here in New Hampshire.”
The last UNH Survey Center poll put Mr. Trump at 42 per cent and Ms. Haley at 20 per cent, with former governor Chris Christie at 14 per cent and Mr. DeSantis in fourth place at 9 per cent. There is much speculation that Mr. Christie, whose devout aim is to keep Mr. Trump from returning to the White House, might also endorse Ms. Haley, a notion bolstered by his spirited defence of her at the last debate and the much-remarked-upon warmth of their postdebate meeting. Caveat: It is not automatic that Mr. Christie’s 14 percentage points would go directly to Ms. Haley and put her at 34 per cent, within striking distance of the 45th president.
One of the great unknowns in American politics is the power of preprimary expectations, which this year presume a strong Trump performance. The best example of that uncertainty may be the 1972 Democratic primary, when senator Edmund Muskie, a former vice-presidential nominee representing the neighbouring state of Maine and the national front-runner, was expected to come out of New Hampshire with more than 50 per cent of the vote. He won the Granite State, but his 46 per cent fell short of expectations, while the 37 per cent won by senator George McGovern of South Dakota far exceeded them. Mr. Muskie withdrew from the race the next month and Mr. McGovern won the nomination.
From the start, Mr. Sununu said that he would consult with family members and likely make an announcement shortly after American Thanksgiving, which occurred on Nov. 23. One of those family members said in an interview that spending time with all the candidates eased the governor’s decision, adding that the younger Mr. Sununu planned to work hard on Ms. Haley’s behalf. “It will make a difference,” the family member, who requested anonymity so as not to intrude on the governor’s moment in the national spotlight, said the morning before the endorsement was announced. “New Hampshire always makes a difference.”
Mr. Sununu has said that so great is his contempt for President Joe Biden that he would vote for any Republican, including Mr. Trump, in the general election 11 months from now. But he is sharply critical of Mr. Trump.
“He’s not selfless, he doesn’t show any great interest in the job, and he’s on the golf course all the time,” Mr. Sununu said in the Globe interview. “I want a hard worker. I want someone who says it’s not about him. We need a nose-to-the-grindstone type. We thought we’d get that from Trump. I’ve seen Donald Trump work. There’s very little to it. He makes decisions based on the last person he talked to. There’s no thought to it.”