Trump's pick for Vice-President, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and his wife Usha Chilukuri Vance arrive on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, in Milwaukee.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
After Barry Goldwater delivered his bell-ringing acceptance speech at the 1964 Republican National Convention, the crowd at San Francisco’s historic Cow Palace arena reacted with astonishment. “He’s running,” one commentator said of the Arizona senator, “as Barry Goldwater.”
The selection of J.D. Vance as Donald Trump’s running mate is a sure indication that the former president, who in recent days survived an assassination attempt and suggested that the episode would prompt him to redraft his acceptance speech, is going to run for a second term as Donald Trump.
No bland presidential campaign. No cooling of the Make-America-Great-Again rhetoric. No cooing of the “kinder, gentler” theme from the Bush family. No timid vice-presidential candidate.
Instead: a firebrand companion from Appalachian Ohio for the most fiery presidential candidate since the last populist contender, William Jennings Bryan. A freshman lawmaker with a swiftly shifting profile that includes being reared in privation, serving in the Marine Corps, working in venture capitalism, writing the bestselling Hillbilly Elegy, offering commentary on CNN, transforming his outlook on American politics and running as an unlikely figure for the Senate. An unsparing critic of the liberals and Democrats who once embraced him as a window into the mind of the striving and struggling Americans, mostly in rural areas, who rushed to the standard of Mr. Trump in 2016.
Who is J.D. Vance? Things to know about Donald Trump’s pick for U.S. vice-president
What to expect from the Republican National Convention
Like composers Ludwig van Beethoven and Robert Schumann, there is an Early J.D. Vance and a Late J.D. Vance.
The Early James David Vance was a “never-Trumper” who said there was a slice of the Trump appeal “that has as its basis … racism and xenophobia.” He argued that Mr. Trump was “cultural heroin” whose “promises are the needle in America’s collective vein.”
The Late Vance aims his blazing rhetoric at those who once celebrated him and his rise from difficult circumstances in Middletown, Ohio, to the collegiate Gothic setting of Yale Law School, designed to mimic the whispery environs of the English Inns of Court.
There is nothing whispery about Mr. Vance, now the most prominent political figure of the millennial generation. He is not Mike Pence 2.0. He is Donald Trump 2.0.
Just this week Mr. Vance posted on X, the former Twitter, that the “central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.” Former representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, a vocal Republican critic of Mr. Trump, said Mr. Vance’s characterization should “disqualify” him for the vice-presidency.
As a Republican Ohio Senate candidate, J.D. Vance spoke as Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump listens at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio., Sept. 17, 2022.Tom E. Puskar/The Associated Press
It is more likely that it was just the right remark to prompt Mr. Trump to make the selection, which had been ardently advocated by Donald Trump Jr.
“Vice-presidential choices matter mostly for what they mean to the broader campaign,” said Christopher Devine, an expert on the vice-presidency who teaches at the University of Dayton in Mr. Vance’s home state of Ohio. “This pick tells us Trump’s focus isn’t on governing. If that were the case, he would never choose a second-year freshman senator. This is a pick that’s more about politics than policy.”
While White House candidates routinely say they choose their running mates on the basis of their qualifications to assume the presidency, that is not always the case. They often look for the political advantage a running mate can offer, which is why Republican Richard Nixon chose governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland (from a Greek immigrant family) in 1968, why Democratic nominee Walter Mondale chose representative Geraldine Ferraro of New York (thinking the first woman on a major-party ticket might restart his faltering campaign) in 1984 and why Democrat John Kerry chose senator John Edwards of North Carolina (seeking inroads in the Republican South) in 2004.
At the vigils outside the RNC, prayers for Donald Trump mingle with battle cries
“Most people’s vote is based on the presidential candidate,” said Joel Goldstein, a Saint Louis University law school expert on the vice-presidency. “For voters who are indifferent, a running mate can have some influence. But, more important, the choice shapes perceptions of the selector. If the vice-president is a particularly good campaigner or has particular appeal to a particular group, the impact will be at the margins – but sometimes our elections are decided at the margin.”
Mr. Vance is just 39; he would be the youngest vice-president since Richard Nixon in 1953, and the third-youngest ever. (John C. Breckinridge was 36 when he took office under James Buchanan in 1857.) In choosing the junior Ohio senator, Mr. Trump has elevated an articulate, pugilistic figure who has veered into election denialism to be, as the old chestnut goes, a heartbeat from the presidency – but also, win or lose in November, instantly the front-runner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
But before that, Mr. Vance’s ability to energize the conservative base of the Republican Party also very likely will energize the liberal base of the Democratic Party. And one more thing: He now might have to debate Vice-President Kamala Harris – or, given the uncertainty in the wake of Joe Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate performance, whomever the Democrats nominate for vice-president.
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this column incorrectly reported that J.D. Vance could become be the second-youngest vice-president ever. This version has been corrected.