A protester holds placards outside Trump Tower in New York on April 3, 2023. Former President Donald Trump is expected to be booked and arraigned on Tuesday on charges arising from hush money payments during his 2016 campaign.Corey Sipkin/The Associated Press
Former U.S. president Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury over his role in paying hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels.
The indictment, the first of a former president, prompted a flurry of questions about what happens next: When will a trial take place? What is the likelihood Mr. Trump will be found guilty? How will this affect the 2024 presidential campaign? Contributing writer David Shribman answers readers’ questions.
What is an indictment?
An indictment is a formal accusation by a grand jury that there is sufficient evidence to believe that a person committed one or more crimes, as set forth in the counts of the indictment. A grand jury proceeding differs from a trial because the person charged is not present during the proceedings and does not have the opportunity to cross-examine witnesses and put on a defence. And an indictment requires only probable cause to believe a crime has been committed, as opposed to the trial, which requires a finding of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.
What’s the difference between an indictment and an impeachment?
An indictment is handed down by a grand jury and it charges an individual with a crime under state or federal law. In contrast, an impeachment is a charge of misconduct – not necessarily a violation of criminal law – committed by a holder of a public office, and is typically voted on by a legislative body. In the American federal system, an impeachment is voted on by the House of Representatives and it requires only a majority vote.
In each instance, the charge is followed by a trial. The trial of an indicted person is conducted in a court of law and typically involves a jury of the defendant’s peers. In contrast, a trial after impeachment is conducted by a political body – in the American federal system, it is conducted by the Senate in its chamber and requires a two-thirds majority for conviction, with no appeal possible. A person who is found guilty of the criminal charge lodged in an indictment faces imprisonment, or a fine, or both, and other potential criminal sanctions. In contrast, an office holder found guilty of misconduct charged in an impeachment is removed from office.
What is an arraignment?
An arraignment is the moment when a person charged with a crime appears in open court in front of a judge or magistrate to hear the charges that have been brought against the person. Typically at the arraignment the defendant is asked to enter a plea, but this does not necessarily happen at that time. The issue of whether the defendant will be kept in custody or allowed to go free on bail, or on the defendant’s own recognizance, will arise during the arraignment. In none of the cases against him does Mr. Trump likely face the danger of being detained.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump waves from a motorcade as he arrives at the Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida.MARCO BELLO/Reuters
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Who is the prosecutor who brought charges against Mr. Trump?
The charges were brought by Alvin L. Bragg Jr., the district attorney in Manhattan. A graduate of Harvard College and the Harvard Law School, he is a former assistant New York State attorney-general, eventually advancing to chief deputy attorney-general. In that role, he oversaw a budget of US$225-million and more than 1,500 people. He was directly involved in cases related to armed robbery, other gun-related crimes including gun trafficking, labour violations, money laundering, drug trafficking – and the state’s litigation against the Trump Foundation.
What has been the reaction to the indictment?
Much of the reaction has been completely predictable. Supporters of the former president are furious and regard the indictment as a bald political move out of proportion to the alleged crime and designed primarily to humiliate Mr. Trump, to injure his presidential campaign and to wreak vengeance on him.
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Opponents of Mr. Trump have varied reactions. Some are simply pleased – deliriously happy, in some cases – that their nemesis is facing discomfort and legal penalty. Others are troubled that there are alleged Trump crimes far more serious than the ones Mr. Bragg has pursued, and they worry that the nature of these charges will cause the public to look askance at further legal action.
What was the response of Donald and the other Trumps?
Mr. Trump was enraged and unleashed an attack on Mr. Bragg even as he used the indictment to raise money for his political activities. He repeated earlier assertions that he is the subject of an unprecedented “witch hunt” but did not shirk from the opportunity to use the indictment to rally his political base and, once again, to speak out against what he and his allies believe is an entrenched political elite that regards him and his movement as a danger to the nation. The other family members, including Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, who have kept their distance from the former president at least in public, issued statements supporting Mr. Trump.
How credible are the allegations against Mr. Trump, or the likelihood he’ll be found guilty?
The grand jury considered the allegations serious enough to vote to proceed to further judicial action. It is impossible to predict the verdict, as that will depend on the quality and persuasiveness of both the prosecutor and Mr. Trump’s defence attorneys. Other factors are the venue of the trial – New York City voted for Joe Biden over Mr. Trump by a three-to-one margin in 2020 – and the nature and composition of the jury.
Mr. Trump’s lawyers may well cite Manhattan’s anti-Trump vote as reason to move the trial elsewhere, to a venue more congenial to him. Mr. Trump took more than three-fifths of the vote in Staten Island, one of the boroughs of New York City. Mr. Trump would love to have the trial moved there. Mr. Bragg would likely resist that.
The cover-up of a US$130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels is a minor charge. What are the chances of Mr. Trump being criminally charged in regard to more serious charges, such as Jan. 6 and the classified documents?
That is the fondest hope of the Trump critics and a source of dread by his supporters. The focus is on cases in Georgia, where a grand jury is examining his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and in Washington, where the Justice Department is examining his possession of government documents, some of them classified, that should have been relinquished when he left the White House.
When would a trial take place?
Mr. Bragg very likely would like to proceed swiftly. Mr. Trump’s customary practice when facing legal action is to delay as long as possible. It may be to the advantage of Trump critics for this trial to be postponed long enough for charges to be filed in Georgia and Washington, if in fact they are. That might undermine the argument that Mr. Trump is being prosecuted, and persecuted, unduly in the New York case.
Could it run into the 2024 presidential election?
It already has. The 2024 campaign essentially began hours after the 2022 midterm congressional elections ended in November – or possibly the moment the last presidential election, in 2020, ended. (The phrase “permanent campaign” has been attached to American politics for decades, with some justification. The term first surfaced in a book with that title, published in 1980 and written by the journalist Sidney Blumenthal, later a close figure to the Clintons and a biographer of Abraham Lincoln.)
Mr. Trump has been an announced candidate for the White House for months. That is part of his defence – that these charges are being brought against him in the middle of a campaign in which he is the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. There never has been an indicted candidate, let alone an indicted nominee, in an American presidential contest.
How can Mr. Trump possibly campaign for election if he is constantly in court with four different cases?
Why not? He presumably will not be constrained physically. American politicians have campaigned for lesser offices while under indictment and, in some cases, even while in prison. Among the examples are James Curley, who ran and was elected mayor of Boston in the early years of the 20th century while in prison, and Eugene V. Debs, the socialist presidential candidate who won nearly a million votes in the 1920 election while incarcerated. Mr. Trump presumably would not be held in prison and would be free to campaign across the country.
In light of the indictment against him, is it fair and within the bounds of ethical journalism to refer to Donald Trump as an accused criminal? It seems many people facing criminal charges (but not convicted) are often referenced in news stories as accused fraudsters, accused murderers, and the like.
By virtue of this indictment, Mr. Trump is in fact an accused criminal and saying that is fair and proper – though prudent journalistic practice might dictate that the specific charges be noted as well, so as to distinguish his alleged criminal activity from, for example, murder or drug trafficking.
There is real jitteriness from Democrats around the prospect of successfully convicting Mr. Trump. We don’t know the charges yet, but paying hush money to influence an election outcome is both wrong and illegal. What are the weaknesses of that case? How does this indictment not come across as political?
The district attorney apparently believes there is little weakness to the case. The public may feel otherwise, though a CNN poll released this week showed that six out of 10 Americans approve of the indictment of Mr. Trump. Even so, many of Mr. Trump’s critics fear that this case seems too political and are worried that, as a result, Mr. Trump may profit rather than be penalized politically by this action.
The burden of making this not look political is on Mr. Bragg. The obstacles to success are great, particularly since most of Mr. Trump’s rivals for the 2024 GOP nomination – political figures who are otherwise working for his political demise – have faced pressure to label this entire matter a political jeremiad. The effort to portray the indictment as a political foray was under way 72 hours – maybe more, depending on how the time element is calibrated – before Mr. Bragg was scheduled to release the details of the charges.