U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Aug. 20 and former U.S. president Donald Trump on Aug. 15 are seen in a combination of file photographs. Efforts from both candidates to stimulate voter turnout are aimed at bringing attention to state and local races in the swing states, particularly Wisconsin.Marco Bello/Reuters
In a country in upheaval, three things remain stable: The American presidential race is a dead heat, the election is coming down to seven swing states, and no amount of political rhetoric or media maneuvering is making much of a difference.
How do you run, or win, a campaign like this?
That – not how to frame an approach to the darkening picture in the Middle East, not how to reshape a candidate’s position on abortion, not whether to toss out new tax preferences and investment incentives – is the real question preoccupying the camps of former president Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris as the campaign approaches its final three weeks.
The Middle East positions, the abortion distinctions and the tax and investment policy adjustments are part of the campaign conversation, to be sure. But they are in service of the principal challenge: not to change anyone’s mind – it’s too late for that and, besides, very few minds remain to be changed – but to motivate the supporters the two campaigns already have.
That’s why former president Barack Obama, speaking in the Democratic stronghold of Pittsburgh in the swing state of Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes and the consensus most-critical battleground for both campaigns) made a special appeal late this week to Black voters, who had their highest turnouts ever in Mr. Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns and who voted for Mr. Biden four years ago by a nine-to-one margin. But his message went beyond Black people to every element of the Democratic coalition:
“Whether this election is making you feel excited or scared, do not just sit back and hope for the best. Get off your couch and vote. Put down your phones and vote. Help your friends and families and co-workers do the same.”
Both campaigns are hitting pressure points to juice turnout.
For Ms. Harris, the pressure point is abortion, a known motivator, as demonstrated in the support for abortion rights in ballot questions in recent years, even in customarily Republican states such as Kansas and Kentucky. This issue stimulates passions especially among women, who turn out to the polls by a larger margin than do men. They are also a segment already galvanized by the prospect of a female president, and together form a voter group that gave Mr. Biden a 2020 bump that is estimated at between 12 and 15 percentage points. Questions on abortion rights are on the ballot in 10 states, including the Nevada and Arizona battlegrounds – a surefire way to enhance voters’ reasons to go to the polls.
For Mr. Trump, the pressure point is immigration. While his advantage on economic issues is in eclipse, his edge on immigration and border security remains robust, at 52 per cent support in the swing states, compared with 36 per cent for Ms. Harris, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released Friday. That gap of 16 percentage points is precisely the size of the Harris gap on abortion. (A Quinnipiac University poll released this week shows a smaller advantage for Mr. Trump on immigration in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin than his rival has on abortion in those three swing states. The Harris advantage reaches 18 percentage points in Pennsylvania.)
These efforts to stimulate turnout are also aimed at bringing attention to state and local races in the swing states, particularly Wisconsin, which Mr. Trump carried in 2016 but Mr. Biden took in 2020 by almost exactly the same number of votes. The theory is that if voters are excited by Senate and state-legislature contests, they will go to the polls and cast ballots for president while they are there.
In the meantime, both candidates are seeking unconventional outlets to make their appeals: media followed by voters almost certain to support their campaigns but still useful as a way to stimulate interest and voter commitment. This is a technique pioneered by Bill Clinton in 1992, when he blasted out a saxophone rendition of Heartbreak Hotel on The Arsenio Hall Show.
That’s why Ms. Harris made an appearance on Howard Stern’s radio show, and also on two podcasts: Call Her Daddy, with an audience of young women, and All The Smoke, a way to reach Black voters. And it’s why Mr. Trump was on Full Send and Flagrant, two podcasts with conservative male audiences.
“They’re finding new avenues to reach people,” said Tobe Berkovitz, who has been a media consultant on presidential, senatorial, congressional and gubernatorial election campaigns. “It isn’t so much as getting the message out as it is getting news about that channel out to the public. Many more people read or saw accounts on social media about these podcasts than actually listened to them. And when people read about Kamala Harris being on Howard Stern, for example, they also read about what she said on Howard Stern – and that can push people to the polls.”