U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks as her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz looks on during a stop on their campaign bus tour in Rochester, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 18.ANGELA WEISS/AFP/Getty Images
It turns out that the route to the White House, and the route that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are taking to the Democratic National Convention, both run through this part of southwestern Pennsylvania.
The Democratic ticket began its trip to the DNC conclave, set to begin Monday in Chicago, with a stop the day prior at Pittsburgh International Airport, where Ms. Harris and her running mate embarked on a bus tour through this region.
That decision – and the fact that Republican nominees Donald Trump and J.D. Vance are also making appearances in the swing-state of Pa. – should be no surprise.
“It’s the pathway to victory – the biggest prize of the states that are up for grabs and it is a most essential one for the Democrats,” said Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., in an interview.
“The demographic makeup of the state – a range of urban, rural and suburban communities, age and educational diversity, and a fair share of moderate voters – makes it a natural battleground.”
The bus tour that the Harris team began in Pittsburgh was designed as something of an introductory tour for a candidate whose name is known, but whose character, views, inclinations and political style remain a blur after four years in the Senate and another four as Vice-President.
The larger purpose of her appearance here – as it will be in even more important appearances in Chicago and in a vital Thursday night acceptance speech – was to begin to define herself for the electorate in a positive light before Mr. Trump, who has begun referring to her as “Comrade Kamala,” does it in a searing negative impression.
Indeed, the race to define Ms. Harris is, in some ways, a proxy for the broader campaign. Mr. Trump is at work trying to portray her as a loony leftist and “lunatic” with limited experience, intelligence and competence. Speaking in the northeastern part of the state Saturday, the former president said Ms. Harris would “ruin” Pennsylvania.
Republican Presidential Candidate former U.S. president Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza on Aug. 17, in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania.Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
To set up her appearance at the DNC – and to counter Trump campaign charges that the Vice-President is avoiding setting out specific policy ideas – Ms. Harris on Friday delivered what her campaign described as a major economic speech in Raleigh, N.C. She emphasized controlling health care costs, a federal ban on what she called “price gouging on food,” subsidies for first-time home buyers, tax breaks for construction companies that build homes for first-time buyers and an expansion of the child tax credit.
The latest Financial Times/Michigan Ross poll showed that 42 per cent trusted Ms. Harris on the economy, as opposed to 41 per cent for Mr. Trump. Though that is basically a statistical tie, it represents a seven-percentage-point improvement for the Democrats from a month earlier, when President Joe Biden was still the party’s presumed nominee. (The poll was conducted Aug. 1-5 with 1,000 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points.)
Meanwhile, the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll gave Ms. Harris a 46-to-43-per-cent advantage over Mr. Trump in Pa. when third-party candidates are included. That edge is just within the margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.8 percentage points and is roughly in line with the two other polls conducted at about the same time. (The poll was conducted between July 31 and Aug. 11 with 920 registered voters.)
All four members of the two parties’ tickets were in Pennsylvania over the weekend, with Mr. Vance in Lower Burrell Township, 39 kilometres from where the Democrats spoke, and with Mr. Trump in Wilkes-Barre, a one-time coal centre in Luzerne County. The two Republicans are also set to return to the state on Monday.
The venues for the campaign visits underline the two parties’ matching strategies. Although the Democratic team scheduled a stop in Beaver County, which Mr. Trump carried by 17 percentage points four years ago, both tickets have decided to inspire their political bases more than try to persuade the few remaining undecided voters.
Can Kamala Harris sustain the momentum until November?
The latest Wall Street Journal poll found that only 15 per cent of the electorate was “up for grabs” in July, down from 28 per cent a month earlier. (The poll was conducted July 23-25 with 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points.)
That explains why the Democratic team began its Sunday in Allegheny County, which Mr. Biden carried by 20 percentage points in 2020. Meanwhile Mr. Vance appeared over the weekend in Westmoreland County, which Mr. Trump carried by 28 percentage points, and the former president appeared in Luzerne County, which he carried by 14 percentage points.
“They will be in the state physically and in the state through various advertising media,” Prof. Yost said.
The campaigns are running both ground games and air games. Thus far, the Harris campaign, with seven field offices in the western part of Pa. and with 36 Democratic offices across the state, has organized more thoroughly than the Trump team, which is concentrating its effort in the more diffuse rural areas in the central part of the state.
Since Mr. Biden withdrew from the race last month, the Harris and Trump teams have spent US$42-million, split almost evenly between the two campaigns, in Pa. That is more than double the US$17.8-million spent in Georgia. The spending here is the most per electoral vote in any of the swing states.
In recent days, the two campaigns announced a total of US$190-million in advertising in the swing states before Labour Day, with Pa. and its 19 electoral votes targeted for the largest share. The Harris campaign plans a digital and cellular advertising offensive, and said its purchase of television advertisements would be twice what Mr. Biden spent in Pa. in 2020.
But for four consecutive nights at the DNC, the Harris team has the attention of a slice of the electorate through what political professionals call “free media.” If they make effective use of their convention, they could continue their upward swing.