Donald Trump has said little about the outside world since winning this week’s U.S. presidential election, other than a single line in his victory speech promising “I’m going to stop the wars.”
Those six words managed to hearten some of America’s long-time rivals, particularly Moscow, while worrying many of its friends. Instead of seeing peace on the horizon, a world already in turmoil is bracing for another series of shocks.
In Ukraine, where worries about Mr. Trump’s return are perhaps highest, there are fears that Mr. Trump plans to force a peace deal on Kyiv by cutting off the flow of U.S. military aid. In Russia, Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin is hoping that Mr. Trump is planning to do exactly that. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky got an early taste of the new world order when, according to U.S. media reports, Mr. Trump added billionaire Elon Musk – a controversial figure in Ukraine over his reported contacts with Mr. Putin – to a postelection phone call.
As Tehran learned of the U.S. election results on Nov. 6, the regime – often at odds with Mr. Trump in the 2010s – played down its significance for Iranians.ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images
In Israel, there are reports that Mr. Trump has signalled to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his words mean he has 10 more weeks – until his Jan. 20 inauguration day – for Israeli troops to finish their operations in Gaza and Lebanon.
Other leaders may be wondering about Mr. Trump’s definition of “war.” For Iran, it was Mr. Trump, during his first term in office, who shoved the Middle East toward its current state of chaos by withdrawing from a key nuclear pact and ordering the assassination of a top Iranian general. The Communist Party of China, meanwhile, is bracing for what could be an unprecedented trade war after Mr. Trump promised 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese-made goods.
For countries like Canada, the “rules-based international order” cherished by the governing Liberals looks set to come under renewed attack. In his first term, Mr. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on fighting climate change and threatened to withdraw from the NATO military alliance as well.
The law – international or domestic – often seems irrelevant to Mr. Trump, who is set to become the first convicted felon to occupy the Oval Office. During his first term, he recognized Israel’s illegal annexation of the Golan Heights, which were seized from Syria in a 1967 war, and ordered the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s feared Revolutionary Guards, an attack that a United Nations special rapporteur later found was unlawful and arbitrary.
The fact both Mr. Putin and Mr. Netanyahu have been accused of war crimes won’t bother Mr. Trump, or prevent him from making deals with them. Canada’s allegation that the Indian government is behind murders of Sikh activists on Canadian soil will also mean less to Mr. Trump than his warm relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Of course, fears were equally high when Mr. Trump first came to office in 2017. His initial four-year stint, however, proved to be a period of relative calm before the storm that’s followed with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. “We had no wars, for four years, we had no wars. Except we defeated ISIS,” Mr. Trump said in his victory speech. “They said ‘he will start a war.’ I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop the wars.”
Mr. Trump’s first team consisted of such national security and foreign policy stalwarts as James Mattis, H.R. McMaster and John Bolton, who were collectively regarded as having a restraining effect on Mr. Trump’s actions. All later described their former boss as unfit for the top office. Mr. Trump’s new picks for secretary of state, secretary of defence and national security adviser will be closely watched by governments around the world.
Pro-Trump billboards in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv echoed the sentiments of Benjamin Netanyahu, who is hoping for Washington's support in Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon.AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images
In Israel – where Mr. Trump’s election was cheered by billboards in Tel Aviv proclaiming “Congratulations Trump, Make Israel Great!” – expectations are high, at least on the political right. Mr. Netanyahu’s orbit believes Mr. Trump will continue to support Israel’s wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, as President Joe Biden has, though without the personal acrimony that had crept into the relationship between Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu as the death toll in Gaza has risen into the tens of thousands.
On Wednesday, an anchor on Israel’s Channel 12 asked Republican Party spokeswoman Elizabeth Pipko whether Mr. Trump’s vow about ending wars meant that Israel had to wrap up its campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon. “I would say he expects them to end it by winning it, 100 per cent, that’s how he always talks about ending wars,” Ms. Pipko replied.
A postelection analysis by the Institute for National Security Studies, which is part of Tel Aviv University, noted that Mr. Trump was calling for an end to the wars without outlining any kind of plan for what would happen afterward in Gaza and Lebanon. Even if the wars carry on past the inauguration, “Trump is unlikely to use U.S. military assistance to restrain Israel,” the INSS concluded.
As Japanese newspapers analyzed Mr. Trump's comeback, the country and other East Asian U.S. allies assessed what it would mean for their defence policies.Shuji Kajiyama/The Associated Press
Other American allies are less sure of what lies ahead. In South Korea and Japan, there are fears that North Korea’s nuclear-armed regime – which recently began sending troops to aid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could escalate its military provocations in East Asia in an effort to get the Trump administration’s attention and perhaps earn dictator Kim Jong Un another face-to-face meeting with the U.S. President. Mr. Trump is also expected to return to calling on both Seoul and Tokyo to pay more for their own defence.
Mr. Trump’s general dislike of paying for the defence of other countries makes his victory unwelcome news for most of the other 31 members of the NATO military bloc. During his first term, Mr. Trump reportedly favoured withdrawing from the alliance; Mr. Mattis and Mr. Bolton said they talked him out of it.
The president-elect said on the campaign trail this year that he would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member that doesn’t meet the alliance’s guideline of spending at least 2 per cent of their gross domestic product on defence. Canada is among eight member nations that don’t meet that target.
Vadym Prystaiko, a former Ukrainian foreign minister and ambassador to Canada, says Kyiv has long feared that Washington would barter away Ukraine's interests to get other concessions from Moscow.Olga Ivashchenko/The Globe and Mail
Europe’s anxiety about what lies ahead was on display as soon as Mr. Trump’s election victory became clear on Wednesday. “Good morning, Europe! Be ready to fight for yourself and your friends!” Marko Mihkelson, chair of the Estonian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, wrote on X as the votes were still being counted. “Europe urgently needs to take more responsibility for its security,” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski wrote a few hours later. “The winds of history are blowing ever more strongly.”
Those winds are whipping hardest in Kyiv, where the first hours and days after Mr. Trump’s win saw more of the air-raid sirens and drone strikes that mark daily life in the Ukrainian capital. Meanwhile the Russian army continued its grinding advance forward in Ukraine’s southeastern Donbas region.
That campaign is expected to accelerate ahead of Jan. 20, despite the onset of winter. Military experts believe Russia’s new aim is to shape any future peace negotiations by seizing as much territory as possible before Mr. Trump’s inauguration. On Thursday, Mr. Putin heaped praise on Mr. Trump – calling him “a courageous person” for how he handled himself during a July assassination attempt – and said he was ready to meet with the U.S. president-elect.
A frequently heard fear in Kyiv is that Mr. Trump, who views himself as the ultimate deal maker, will arrange another summit meeting with Mr. Putin – akin to their 2018 meeting in Helsinki – and seek the Russian leader’s help to resolve multiple crises.
“Ukrainian diplomats have always feared the so-called big deal,” said Vadym Prystaiko, a former Ukrainian foreign minister. “The United States will reach agreement with Russia on many other things, like Gaza or Iran or North Korean non-proliferation – whatever they believe is very important at this moment – using us as the price: ‘And you get Ukraine.’ ”
Win McNamee/Getty Images
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