U.S. President Joe Biden attends a campaign event at Sherman Middle School, in Madison, Wisconsin, U.S., July 5, 2024.Nathan Howard/Reuters
Seven days ago, the conventional wisdom was the week that followed was the critical period for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. In a time of enormous political turmoil, where convulsive change has become the norm, this remains the same: It is possible – it is irresistible – to say this is the critical week for Mr. Biden and his party.
As members of Congress return to Washington for the first time since Mr. Biden’s disastrous debate performance and gather to assess the party’s electoral prospects, and as the country waits to learn the resolution of the Democratic crisis, an awkward shadow race for the party’s nomination is under way.
It is being conducted in the expectation that the profile of the party is being overhauled within a mere fortnight’s time – and the identity of the team that will face Donald Trump in November has yet to be determined.
Meanwhile, a new issue is emerging to accompany the vital question of how this matter is to be resolved: How long can the party, now six weeks from the opening of its nominating convention, afford to allow this spectacle to continue?
In a parallel political universe, Mr. Biden, fired with combat rage, continues to campaign, behaving as if no legitimate barrier to his nomination and his re-election has appeared in recent weeks. His staff remains solidly and stolidly in his corner, at least in public.
This wall of resolve remains in place as Democratic elected officials are increasingly lining up behind the notion that he must abandon his campaign.
They have not conjured up any way to do so. That is only adding to their anxiety – and to the urgency as polls show dramatic seepage of support for Mr. Biden. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows Mr. Trump, who held a 2-percentage-point lead in February, now leads Mr. Biden by 6 percentage points. Some states regarded as safely Democratic, such as New Hampshire, Maine and Minnesota, may no longer be safe for the party.
“He has to go, from the party’s perspective,” said Richard Murray, a political scientist at the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. “He’s not in that place yet. It looks as if he has to be forced, and the next week will be the critical period. The objective numbers look pretty overwhelming that he cannot win.”
One of those who has broken publicly with the White House is Democratic Representative Seth Moulton.
“It shouldn’t be hard to do the right thing,” Mr. Moulton, a decorated Marine veteran of the Iraq War, said in an interview. “But doing the right thing sometimes is painful. I love Joe Biden. He has been great to me and he’s been amazing for our country. But I think this is a moment for people to be patriotic for America because the stakes are so high.”
Leading candidates to replace Mr. Biden are increasingly winning public attention, some of them campaigning by pretext, much the way General Winfield Scott, the 1852 Whig party presidential nominee, campaigned by saying his travels were really scouting expeditions to identify ideal locations for military hospitals.
The 2024 version is to make appearances ostensibly to demonstrate their fealty to the President in a way to show their party loyalty, and in a manner to play down any whiff of personal ambition, but also to remind the public they are gifted campaigners.
Vice-President Kamala Harris campaigned in New Orleans on Saturday, telling the annual Essence Festival of Culture convention of Black women that the 2024 contest “is probably the most significant election of our lifetime.” She also stressed abortion rights in the state, which has banned almost all abortions.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has campaigned in recent days in Pennsylvania and Michigan, which not coincidentally are both regarded as swing states – and that are home to other possible White House aspirants, Governors Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer.
Other Democratic governors including Tim Walz of Minnesota, regarded as a possible vice-presidential nominee on a refreshed Democratic ticket without Mr. Biden in the top position, proclaimed the President was “fit for office.”
One of the themes that has emerged in the past two weeks is contemplating the way this crisis could have been avoided.
Just as the Vietnam War consumed the Lyndon Johnson presidency, eventually forcing him from his 1968 re-election campaign, concern about Mr. Biden’s age is now out of his campaign’s control. And, like the conflict in Southeast Asia, it has spilled over in a way that is difficult if not impossible to be contained.
“If Biden had said in June, 2023, that we have a big bench and there are loads of talented people in our party and they should have a chance to lead, things would be different today,” said Matthew Dallek, a George Washington University historian.
“But these campaigns are years long and the top concern that people had about Biden – his age – has suddenly come forth in a dramatic way late in the campaign.”
Over the weekend, Mr. Biden distributed an e-mail fundraising plea, seeking to reinforce his image as someone who is congenitally underestimated but who prevails in the end.
“I understand you can’t turn on the television or get on the internet without seeing some pundit talking about how I need to drop out of the race,” he wrote. “Nonsense.”