Donald Trump and Joe Biden will square off in front of a national audience during a 90-minute debate on CNN, starting Thursday at 9 p.m. ET.The Associated Press
The eyes of the American nation Thursday night will be on the two presidential candidates, who themselves have their eyes on the ultimate prize in the country’s political life.
In the first presidential debate between two people who have occupied the White House, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will square off before a national audience that would prefer neither man take the office again.
The 90-minute debate on CNN, which begins at 9 p.m. ET, will take place at an unusual juncture in American history. A quarter of the country holds unfavourable views of both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, according to new data from the Pew Research Center. It reports that, at this stage in the past 10 election cycles, never has there been this rate of what pollsters describe as “double haters.”
That phenomenon – as much as any development in the economy, at the southern border, in the Middle East or in reaction to various Supreme Court decisions – is what is shaping this debate.
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Voters’ impatience with the two candidates and their disappointment at having to choose between them in November means that viewers may be looking for reasons to spurn – rather than support – one of the contenders.
In any case, the number of Americans who are undecided about the November election is small. Considering the disinterest that circumstance may represent, it is possible that swing voters will not be tuned in to the debate at all.
Even so, Thursday’s presidential debate – the 36th in American history, beginning with four in the 1960 election, between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy – is an important moment in the arc of the campaign.
“The important thing for these candidates is to establish a contrast,” said Joe Trippi, a veteran Democratic strategist who has worked on six presidential campaigns.
“The candidate who establishes the greater contrast is going to have the better night.”
Both candidates – who are quietly pleased that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not qualify for the debate – sought this confrontation for different reasons.
Mr. Trump believes his rival lacks the mental acuity to react swiftly and effectively to his thrusts, and Mr. Biden thinks he can parry them with ease and grace.
Mr. Trump believes this session will confirm him as the candidate with unassailable momentum, while Mr. Biden believes it is an opportunity to jar some support from Mr. Trump’s column and move it to “undecided” – en route to an eventual resting place in the Biden column.
And – just as significant – Mr. Trump appears to hope Mr. Biden will make a careless stumble on the order of Gerald Ford’s assertion, in his 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter, that there was “no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe” when there plainly was. Mr. Biden, meanwhile, seems to be counting on Mr. Trump to make statements that are clearly, and provably, false.
Mr. Biden’s team sought an early-summer debate, perhaps to give the President five months to recover from any gaffes. (Over six decades in politics, he has made plenty of them.)
Mr. Trump had little to lose by accepting the challenge. Even if the things he says on the debate stage are false or unconventional, he has made such comments before with no negative consequences for his campaign.
As always in presidential debates – and especially when these two candidates tangle in person, as they did twice in 2020 – the focus will be on which of them is being tested more severely.
“Trump likes everything to be about him, so this is will be hard for him, but he has to make this a referendum on Biden,” said Michael DuHaime, a former Republican National Committee political director.
“In a year like this, voters are looking for a new direction, and so if this debate is about Biden more than Trump, then it will be good for Trump.”
In the 2020 election, the first debate between the two was a slugfest, full of interruptions and imprecations. Neither appeared presidential, though analysts agree that Mr. Trump’s aggressiveness seemed grating to voters.
How much the two watch their behaviour this time – and again on Sept. 10, when they are scheduled to meet a second time – is one of the great unknowns.
Also unclear is which of them will emerge appearing more suited for the challenges of the future, both at home (where social and cultural divisions remain strong) and abroad (where wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are continuing, and great shifts are under way in the global power balance).
“We want someone who is strong, confident and at ease,” said Christine Whelan, a fellow at the Center for Healthy Minds at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
“Research shows that we equate people who present themselves as confident with having strength and success in leadership. We know, of course, that someone who is thoughtful and who listens more than talks is important.
“But in a debate setting, that does not necessarily equate to success. We want someone who owns the stage, and showmanship matters.”
So on Thursday, the show begins. Mr. Biden blocked off time for preparation; Mr. Trump did not. Mr. Trump refused to join any of the five Republican debates in the primary season; Mr. Biden had only token opposition in his drive to the nomination, and engaged in no debates either.
Both will have some rustiness on the debate stage. But in any case, the viewers will come to their screens with weariness.