An Osprey MV22 lands on Japanese Yonaguni Island, located 110 kilometres from Taiwan, on Oct. 26. U.S. and Japanese forces participated in the biennial training exercise, Keen Sword, on the island in October.Steven Chase/The Globe and Mail
The roar of the hovering Marine Corps aircraft drowns out the sound of waves breaking on the rocks around Yonaguni Island, among the most isolated locations in Japan, as the U.S. military conducts an evacuation drill on territory that may one day be the front lines of a conflict over Taiwan.
Japan’s westernmost inhabited island, Yonaguni is more than 2,000 kilometres from Tokyo but only 110 kilometres from the coast of Taiwan, where the self-governing democracy is the target of increasingly menacing actions from China, which seeks to annex it. Beijing has encircled Taiwan with warships and military planes three times since 2022 and has not ruled out using force to take it.
Reaching subtropical Yonaguni can be challenging. Flights are prone to weather cancellations, leaving the only option a four-hour ferry trip that travellers call the “vomit ship.” The most likely reason anyone outside of Japan would have heard of Yonaguni is global pop star Bad Bunny’s chart-topping hit of the same name, in which he croons about how far he would travel for his sweetheart.
On a late October afternoon, it’s the Americans who have come a long way, flying an Osprey MV-22, a hybrid helicopter/propeller plane, from a U.S. base on Okinawa Island, 500 kilometres to the northeast. A joint exercise, planned for the morning with a Japanese military Osprey, was cancelled because of bad weather.
The training scenario on this day at Camp Yonaguni, Japan’s defence outpost here, is that United States Forces Japan – one of the biggest American military deployments overseas – is responding to a request by the Japanese government to evacuate residents and tourists. The Japanese are providing medical support.
It’s part of biennial training exercise Keen Sword, which, as the U.S. military said in an Oct. 23 statement, seeks “to demonstrate to the world our will to defend Japan and the ironclad nature of the U.S.-Japan alliance, which has stood for more than 70 years.”
Fumiko Sasaki, who teaches East Asian security at New York’s Columbia University, said evacuation drills on Yonaguni also make sense in the context of a conflict over Taiwan. More than 21,000 Japanese citizens live in Taiwan and close to one million Japanese tourists visit Taiwan each year.
The Irozaki Lighthouse is located on the westernmost point of Japan on Yonaguni Island. Reaching the subtropical island can be challenging as flights are prone to weather cancellations and a four-hour ferry trip is referred to by travellers as the 'vomit ship.'
Steven Chase/The Globe and Mail
“We expect that many refugees would come to Japan, and perhaps some ships from Taiwan. And perhaps Yonaguni would be the first place where many refugees, including Japanese people, arrive,” Prof. Sasaki said. “Japanese people are very passionate to help the Taiwanese but at the same time, they are deeply concerned about getting dragged into the conflict.”
Japan got a taste in August, 2022, of what a fight over Taiwan could mean. Six ballistic missiles fired by China, as it vented anger over a Taiwan visit by Nancy Pelosi, then-Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, landed in waters that formed part of Japan’s exclusive economic zone. One of them splashed down 80 kilometres from Yonaguni.
Japan and the United States appear to be deepening their military co-operation.
Just three months ago, U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin announced what he called a “historic decision” for the American military in Japan. It was upgrading U.S. Forces Japan to a joint force headquarters that pundits have described as a war-fighting command: giving it a “direct leadership role” over American forces in the area even though it still reports to brass in Hawaii. This extra authority helps the U.S. military work more closely with Japan’s Self-Defence Forces command.
The historical division of labour between Japan and the United States in the defence of Japanese territory was that “any offensive operations would be assumed by U.S. forces and defensive responsibilities would be assumed by Japan,” Satoru Mori, a professor with Keio University’s faculty of law who used to work for Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said.
“We used to call this the American spear and the Japanese shield.”
This separation of roles is changing with 12 years of successive military budget increases in Japan, its commitment to pacifism tempered by growing concern over China and North Korea. As well, in 2022, Tokyo acquired counterstrike capabilities in the form of cruise missiles such as Tomahawks.
“I think Japan is gradually assuming the offensive operations to defend Japan itself,” Prof. Mori said. “And that would actually allow and free up U.S. forces that have been previously assigned to defend Japan, to concentrate on the defence of Taiwan.”
Even before China stepped up its intimidation of Taiwan, Tokyo’s growing anxiety over Beijing was being fuelled by their bilateral dispute over the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, home to rich fishing grounds and what are believed to be significant oil and gas deposits.
Kokichi Irabu, 55, managing director with the Yaeyama Fisheries Cooperative, which represents fishermen on local islands including Yonaguni and the regional hub of Ishigaki, said he regularly hears stories of Chinese vessels chasing Japanese fishing boats away from the Senkaku. He said fishermen regularly see four Chinese coast guard ships trying to intimidate Japanese boats, declaring the islands are Chinese territory and telling them to leave.
One training scenario for American and Japanese forces on the island saw forces practice responding to a request by the Japanese government to evacuate residents and tourists.Steven Chase/The Globe and Mail
Mr. Irabu said fishing around Senkaku is attractive and the waters contain lucrative red snapper.
He supports Japan’s increased defence investments in this remote archipelago, where Tokyo has installed guided missile batteries and new bases. “Our nation should be protected by us,” Mr. Irabu said.
Craig Mark, adjunct professor at Hosei University in Tokyo, described the fate of Taiwan as “probably the great strategic question of our time in the 21st century.” The Chinese Communist Party, which has never governed Taiwan, is determined to gain hold of this island where the defeated Chinese Nationalists fled during the country’s civil war. The question remains: Will the United States risk going to war to defend Taiwan and or Japan risk being dragged into it?
Prof. Mark said exercises such as Keen Sword send a message to China that “if any potential threats to Taiwan escalate” and threaten the U.S. Pacific presence and other allies, “they’re willing to basically take on any Chinese aggression.”
Mr. Irabu said he expects that under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, which commits both countries to defend each other if attacked, the Americans will come to Tokyo’s aid. But, he said Japan, which has already experienced one term of a Donald Trump America-First presidency, “cannot totally rely on the United States any more.”
Ishigaki businessman Hiroaki Yonemori, 70, echoes a similar sentiment.
Citing the 2021 American withdrawal from Afghanistan, he points out the United States can alter course, including when presidents change.
Japan has to be ready to defend itself if the United States isn’t there to help out, Mr. Yonemori said. “We have to believe the United States,” he said. “However, the American people, they can change their mind.”