Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro walks at the Supreme Court of Justice, in Caracas, Venezuela, August 9, 2024.Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters
More than two weeks after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro claimed reelection victory, the U.S. and other Western countries are showing little sign of swift tough action over what many of them have condemned as voting fraud.
Most governments have demanded that Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) release a full set of voting tally sheets after both Maduro and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez declared they won. Brazil and others are trying to secure talks between the two sides, irreconcilable in decades.
A United Nations panel of electoral experts said that Venezuela’s electoral authority did not follow regulatory provisions when it published July election results and the lack of detailed results is without precedent in contemporary elections.
The panel’s comments, published on Tuesday but dated Aug. 9, come amid an ongoing election dispute in the South American country which has lead to at least 2,400 arrests and some 23 deaths during a crackdown on protests against Maduro.
Western governments are trying to “take it slowly,” with none wanting to move first, said one embassy official who was not authorized to speak publicly.
“This isn’t a race to see who can verbally go the furthest in their demands with zero effectiveness, but to be effective in our support for democracy in Venezuela,” Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares told a Senate hearing on Tuesday.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Monday urged the release of voting records, end of political persecution and dialogue between opponents. The bloc has not anticipated any action.
Three officials from different countries said the measured response comes as they are mindful of what happened after Maduro’s 2018 reelection.
Then, the vote was quickly condemned as a sham and led to the most severe sanctions yet on the OPEC nation. An interim government led by the opposition was widely recognized overseas, but the effort ultimately evaporated, fortifying Maduro in power.
In Washington, which under Republican President Donald Trump blocked Venezuela’s critical oil exports, there seems little appetite for more severe sanctions. Democratic U.S. officials have threatened but so far held off on new punitive measures.
The Biden administration has been keen not to complicate the way forward for the opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado and candidate Gonzalez, as Venezuelans seek “even small concessions” from Maduro, a person familiar with Washington’s thinking said.
Some of those concessions are related to open communication channels between the two sides that the opposition hopes could lead towards an impartial verdict on the election’s results and a possible political transition.
A review by Venezuela’s Supreme Court is likely to take time and may not be impartial given that it is packed by Maduro allies. Another option that might help resolve the dispute, repeating the election, has been dismissed by Machado and advised against by observers, two of the sources said, due to lack of guarantees for doing it in a safe and trustworthy way.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado attends a protest against election results that awarded Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro with a third term, in Caracas, Venezuela, August 3, 2024.Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters
Walking on broken glass
U.S. officials have been reaching out to regional and international partners to organize a coordinated response, the three sources said. Cautiously, the U.S. has recognized Gonzalez as the winner, but not called him president-elect.
“Now is the time for the Venezuelan parties to begin discussions on a respectful and peaceful transition,” said U.S. State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel on Monday.
A spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council told Reuters on Tuesday that Washington is evaluating what Maduro and his representatives do or do not do next and “will respond accordingly.”
However, the Biden government’s remaining options appear to be limited. The U.S. in April reimposed some oil sanctions, accusing Maduro of reneging on electoral commitments, and it has enforced numerous individual sanctions in the last five years, including on CNE head Elvis Amoroso.
U.S. officials have expressed concerns that post-election upheaval could spur more Venezuelans to leave and head for the U.S.-Mexico border, according to the Washington-based source. With immigration already a hot-button issue, that could create new problems for U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in her campaign for president.
Venezuela’s foreign ministry did not reply to a request for comment. “We will not discuss the content of our private diplomatic discussions,” a State Department spokesperson said.
The Washington-based Organization of American States has failed to agree a joint response, even as the bloc’s election observation body detailed “illegalities, flaws, and bad practices” during the election.
“The official results are not trustworthy or deserving of democratic recognition,” it concluded of the July 28 vote.
The presidents of Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are coordinating action while calling for full access to voting records, while a coalition including the U.S., Canada, Panama and others are holding separate talks among each other and with Venezuela’s opposition, people familiar with the matter said.
Panama offered political asylum to Maduro - a controversial move since he is under investigation by the International Criminal Court for allegations of human rights violations - and called for a regional summit.
Brazil will not recognize Maduro’s victory without full disclosure and validation of tallies, a Brazilian government source said, adding that officials’ worries about escalating violence and political arrests have increased.
“Messages to Maduro have been sent making clear that arresting Gonzalez and Machado is a no-go,” the source said, adding that Brazil’s focus is on dealing with both sides.
Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira plans to stop in Bogota on Thursday to talk with his Colombian counterpart on Venezuela, Brazil’s government said.
Countries including China, Russia, Nicaragua and Cuba have recognized Maduro’s victory and offered him support.
More than two weeks after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro claimed re-election victory, the U.S. and other Western countries are showing little sign of swift, tough action over what many of them have condemned as voting fraud.
Reuters