U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks in Bali, Indonesia, in a 2022 file photo.POOL/Reuters
Antony Blinken is, once again, headed to Beijing.
The U.S. Secretary of State had been due to visit China in February, but called off his trip at the last minute after an alleged Chinese spy balloon entered American airspace. At the time, there were hopes that Mr. Blinken could build on a positive meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping late last year, and bring some stability to an increasingly acrimonious relationship.
Four months later, ties are more strained than ever – in part because of the balloon spat – and expectations for what Mr. Blinken can achieve in Beijing are far lower.
“Blinken’s long-delayed trip is, in many respects, purely performative,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank. “Bilateral relations are all but set to deteriorate further, regardless of what happens in Beijing this week.”
Mr. Singleton said the communication breakdown in recent months was a symptom, rather than cause, of the downward spiral in relations, driven by fundamental disagreements over economic policy and Taiwan.
“China wants what the United States won’t give, namely a reprieve from Washington’s regulatory assault on China’s economy at a time when Beijing is grappling with how to stimulate growth,” he said. “Meanwhile, China is unlikely to take meaningful steps to de-escalate the situation in the Taiwan Strait.”
Beijing claims self-ruled Taiwan as its territory and has vowed to seize it by force if necessary. Earlier this month, when U.S. and Canadian vessels were transiting the Taiwan Strait, a Chinese warship came close to colliding with the U.S. destroyer, in a move denounced by Washington as “unsafe.”
Speaking to Mr. Blinken ahead of his departure this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said the U.S. needed to “show respect” to Beijing’s position on Taiwan, and urged Washington to “stop undermining China’s sovereignty, security and development interests in the name of competition.”
Mr. Blinken’s trip follows one by CIA director Bill Burns, kept secret at the time, and meetings between Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s top national security adviser, and Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat in May.
But even as engagement appears to be slowly ramping up, the White House has downplayed any potential for a breakthrough this weekend.
“This is not a visit in which I would anticipate a long list of deliverables coming out of it,” Daniel Kritenbrink, the U.S. State Department’s top diplomat for East Asia, told reporters. “This is a really critical series of engagements that we’ll have in Beijing at a crucial time in the relationship that we again hope will, at a minimum, reduce the risk of miscalculation so that we do not veer into potential conflict.”
That could involve restarting military-to-military talks, which were cut off last year when then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Beijing reacted furiously, suspending co-operation on a range of issues and staging large-scale war games around the island.
At a summit in Singapore this month, Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu rebuffed a request for a meeting from his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin. Beijing later questioned the “sincerity” of the invitation, and Tan Kefei, a Ministry of Defence spokesperson, told the media that the U.S. “disregards China’s concerns and creates artificial obstacles, seriously undermining mutual trust between the two militaries.”
“For this visit to generate practical results, the onus is on Washington to show more sincerity and respect, as it is the U.S. that is more eager to communicate with China, rather than the other way round,” the state-run Global Times said of Mr. Blinken’s trip.
Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the government-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the paper Washington seemed to have “realized the danger facing bilateral ties and the urgency of risk management.”
He said it was not too late for both countries to use this visit as a “window of opportunity” to prevent bilateral ties from sliding from “worse to worst.”
Mr. Xi himself hailed the importance of personal diplomacy Friday, in a meeting with Microsoft founder Bill Gates, who he said was the “first American friend I’ve met in Beijing this year.”
“I have often said that the foundation of China-U.S. relations lies in its people,” Mr. Xi told the U.S. billionaire. “We have always placed our hopes on the American people and hope that friendship between our two peoples will continue.”
Mr. Blinken’s trip could open the door for further engagement, with both U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expected to visit China in the near future. Mr. Kerry had previously seen success in talks over emissions reduction, a rare bright spot in the relationship.
Earlier this week, Ms. Yellen pushed back against those calling for the U.S. to completely decouple from China, saying doing so would be “disastrous.”
“I think we gain and China gains from trade and investment that is as open as possible,” she said, in remarks that were well received in Beijing. “I certainly do not think it is in our interest to stifle the economic progress of the Chinese people.”
Ms. Yellen echoed an approach of cautious engagement along with de-risking, which European leaders have also suggested as a way to reduce exposure without cutting off ties, in the face of some hawkish voices in Washington who wish to see the West as a whole take a tougher line on China.
Beijing for its part has attempted to shore up what support it has in Europe, amid a general downturn in relations caused by China’s backing of Russia over the Ukraine war. As Mr. Blinken lands in Beijing this weekend, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is heading to Berlin and Paris for meetings with some of China’s closest allies on the continent.