About 600 troops are being posted to Ishigaki, one of Japan’s most southern inhabited islands.Steven Chase/The Globe and Mail
The long arm of a construction crane soars above the thick jungle on subtropical Ishigaki Island where Japan, which embraced pacifism 80 years ago, is preparing for a war it hopes never begins.
Camp Ishigaki, a military base opened by Japan’s Ground Self-Defence Force in March, 2023, is still bustling with hard-hatted workers 18 months later as Tokyo builds up its military presence on remote islands near Taiwan.
About 600 troops are being posted to Ishigaki, one of Japan’s most southern inhabited islands. Also deployed are cutting-edge guided-missile batteries intended to stop threats approaching by sea or air.
Arming islands such as Ishigaki is part of a decade-plus shift in Japan’s defence posture. The most likely threat in this archipelago, adjacent to the East China Sea, comes from Beijing, experts say. And Tokyo has laid out plans to further boost annual defence spending by tens of billions of dollars, not long after a government defence strategy paper in 2022 called China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour “a matter of serious concern” and the “greatest strategic challenge” it faces.
It set a goal of raising defence spending to 2 per cent of annual economic output by 2027, a change for a country whose postwar constitution says the Japanese people “forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.”
A Sunday election in Japan cost Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition its parliamentary majority, adding further uncertainty over the country’s future.
Soldiers stand guard at Camp Ishigaki on Oct. 23. Japan has set a goal of raising defence spending to 2 per cent of annual economic output by 2027.Steven Chase/The Globe and Mail
Outside Camp Ishigaki, there is unrest with the changes that have come to a sleepy island prized by tourists for its white sand and turquoise waters. On a late October afternoon, about 20 protesters rally at the base entrance, carrying signs such as “No to military and missile bases.“ They deliver a letter intended for the garrison commander asking that local islands not be turned “into battlefields.”
Both the Japanese and American flags are flying above Camp Ishigaki as forces from both countries conduct a biennial training exercise known as Keen Sword. As part of this, the United States brought a mobile HIMARS missile launcher that has been used to great effect by Ukraine against Russian invaders.
Not everyone agrees with this rising military tempo.
Hidemasa Uehara, a 69-year-old doctor who represents a group opposed to the base, was the protester who presented the letter to a Camp Ishigaki soldier last week.
He says soldiers “bring trouble.” During the Second World War, Japanese troops forced Ishigaki residents to relocate to an area rife with mosquitoes and malaria, he noted. And today, they’re turning a peaceful island into a risky place to live.
Hidemasa Uehara, 69, a doctor who represents a group opposed to the military base, was the protester who presented the letter to a Camp Ishigaki soldier.Steven Chase/The Globe and Mail
Mr. Uehara said he believes, if anything, Japan’s military investments in these southwestern islands will provoke Beijing to attack. “We are now a target,” he said.
Satoru Mori, a professor with Keio University’s faculty of law, said Japan’s strategic orientation has shifted over nearly 15 years from its northern territory, where it focused on threats such as Russia, to its southwest, where China has been expanding its air and naval forces and pressing controversial territorial claims. Beijing also regularly sends vessels near disputed East China Sea islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku and China calls the Diaoyu.
Russia and North Korea are still important security concerns but “China looms larger these days and Taiwan has become the focus of our attention,” he said.
China has increasingly menaced Taiwan in recent years, at times surrounding the self-governed island with warships. It’s also militarized islands in the South China Sea and has laid claim to the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, home to rich fishing in a region believed to have oil and gas deposits.
Camp Ishigaki, a military base opened by Japan’s Ground Self-Defence Force in March, 2023, is still bustling with hard-hatted workers 18 months later as Tokyo builds up its military presence on remote islands near Taiwan.Steven Chase/The Globe and Mail
The guided missile systems on islands such as Ishigaki and Miyako, and a radar facility and electronic warfare unit on Yonaguni, responsible for intercepting enemy communications and jamming their signals, are intended to convince China to think twice about trying to seize control of the Senkaku Islands, under Japanese control, or mount an attack on Taiwan.
“It’s a denial capability that they’re building up here,” Prof. Mori said. Japan is “trying to send a signal to China that any kind of naval operations that they conduct will not be successful, because the Chinese fleet would be sunk by these anti-ship missiles.”
He said a significant portion of Tokyo’s increased defence spending is to buy missiles, other munitions and weapons systems components. Among Japan’s most significant announcements in recent years is a 2022 decision to acquire counterstrike capability through the purchase of hundreds of long-range cruise missiles such as Tomahawks.
“Japan previously did not have any capability to strike enemy targets within enemy territory,” Prof. Mori said.
Ishigaki businessman Hiroaki Yonemori, 70, whose company built dormitories for the self-defence forces, said the military investment is a boost for the local economy. He’s chair of the regional Yaeyama Defence Association, a group of business and political leaders who had urged establishment of a military base on Ishigaki.
Ishigaki businessman Hiroaki Yonemori, 70, whose company built dormitories for the self-defence forces, said the military investment is a boon for the local economy.Steven Chase/The Globe and Mail
Mr. Uehara, the doctor, said these islands throughout history have had good relations with China. Any conflict over Taiwan would be an internal conflict between Chinese people and no concern of Ishigaki residents, he said.
He said the economic benefits from 600 soldiers are dwarfed by the boon that tourism brings – a windfall that could be jeopardized by militarization. Last year, 1.1 million tourists visited Ishigaki and spent tens of millions of dollars, statistics show.
Mr. Yonemori said the base has demonstrated its value even for civil emergencies. Last December, Ishigaki’s water infrastructure was temporarily disrupted and Camp Ishigaki soldiers stepped in to help by distributing water to residents, he said.
He thinks Japan is still a pacifist country because its citizens remember the devastation of the Second World War. The businessman noted neutral Switzerland refrains from getting involved in armed conflict with other states and yet has a strong defensive military.
Japan formally reinterpreted its constitution in 2014, allowing for collective self-defence in certain cases and engagement in military action if an ally was attacked.
Prof. Mori said recent events helped build support among Japanese for stronger deterrence. “The ultimate change that brought this mindset was the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and people came to realize that countries can be subject to unprovoked armed attack,” he said.
“The meaning of pacifism has changed. People want peace, and they used to believe that having military power was going in the wrong direction, but now they understand that having military power is actually going to contribute to peace,” he said.
Mr. Uehara, on Ishigaki, however is not buying this. “We live on a small island,” he said. “We will end up being the victims.”
With a report from Reuters