A billboard with a picture of the presidential candidates on a street in Tehran, on June 17. Voter turnout – which hit a new low in 2021 when former president Ebrahim Raisi was elected – will be monitored as closely as the race itself.Majid Asgaripour/Reuters
Iranians go to the polls on Friday in a closely run presidential election that will be watched as much for turnout as for the actual result.
Polls suggest the snap election, called after the May 19 helicopter crash that killed then-president Ebrahim Raisi, won’t be settled on Friday. None of the four candidates are expected to receive more than 50 per cent of the vote, a result that would necessitate a runoff at a later date between the top two candidates.
The most likely outcomes are either a second-round showdown between a pair of staunch conservatives – Bagher Qalibaf, a former mayor of Tehran, and Saeed Jalili, a hard-liner who handled nuclear negotiations with the United States – or a runoff pitting one of those men against Masoud Pezeshkian, the only reformist candidate permitted to enter the race.
A victory for either Mr. Qalibaf or Mr. Jalili would signal a continuation of the status quo, and an extension of Iran’s regionwide confrontation with Israel and the U.S. Both men are considered close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Mr. Pezeshkian, who served as health minister under Mohammad Khatami two decades ago while the former president was loosening some of Iran’s tight restrictions, is the wild card. Many observers, however, see the inclusion of the previously little-known Mr. Pezeshkian – his candidacy was approved by the all-powerful Guardian Council – as the regime’s attempt to boost turnout by luring moderate voters.
Voter turnout – which hit a new low of 48.5 per cent in 2021 when Mr. Raisi was elected – will be monitored as closely as the race itself. After dipping again to 40.6 per cent in parliamentary elections earlier this year, the figure is seen as reflecting public disenchantment with the 45-year-old Islamic Revolution.
“Elections are always a test, but now more than ever,” Ayatollah Khamenei said in public remarks this week, adding a warning: “In every election where the turnout was low, the enemies launched their verbal attacks.”
Many Iranians felt they were disenfranchised in 2021 after the country’s 12-member Guardian Council cleared the path for Mr. Raisi’s victory by disqualifying all other serious contenders.
“Putting on what looks like a more competitive election suits the Islamic Republic for domestic reasons, but also internationally,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based foreign-policy research institute. “Certainly, the optics matter. If it can produce a higher turnout and build back a bit of legitimacy, that’s a win.”
Ms. Vakil said she expects between 40-per-cent and 50-per-cent turnout on Friday, though voter interest could rise if Mr. Pezeshkian makes it through to the second round – particularly if his opponent is the 59-year-old Mr. Jalili, the most socially conservative candidate.
The most recent poll, published Wednesday by the Iranian Students Polling Agency, suggested the country might be headed for exactly such a result, with Mr. Pezeshkian topping the first round with 33 per cent, followed by 29 per cent for Mr. Jalili. However, most of the 19 per cent who supported Mr. Qalibaf would be expected to endorse Mr. Jalili in a runoff.
The poll was also conducted before two long-shot candidates withdrew from the race, telling their supporters to back either Mr. Jalili or Mr. Qalibaf. The other candidate still on the ballot for Friday, long-time regime figure Mostafa Pourmohammadi, has less than 2-per-cent support.
Negar Mortazavi, an Iranian-American journalist who hosts The Iran Podcast, said the regime’s decision to let Mr. Pezeshkian run – while disqualifying dozens of other candidates (and continuing to bar all women) – was a surprise. “It seems the regime maybe has decided to make a slight shift back to the centre,” she said. “It could be because they are indirectly involved in a regional war … with Israel, with the U.S. They need societal support. They need more national unity. And they have the opposite right now.”
Ms. Mortazavi called the 69-year-old Mr. Pezeshkian a “mild reformist” whom the regime has decided it can work with. He has recently been drawing large crowds at his campaign rallies and has been photographed wearing green scarves in an apparent attempt to associate himself with a series of pro-democracy protests in 2009 that used the colour as a symbol.
His speeches have included calls for Iran to try again to negotiate an end to the U.S.-led sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy. A 2013 deal – signed by then-U.S. president Barack Obama – saw some sanctions lowered in exchange for Iran agreeing to curb its nuclear program. The U.S. quit the deal in 2018 as Mr. Obama’s successor, Donald Trump, opted for a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
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Despite approving Mr. Pezeshkian’s run for the presidency, Ayatollah Khamenei also appeared to warn voters not to back the reformist. “The one who has the slightest opposition to the revolution … or the Islamic system, is not useful to you,” he said Tuesday. “The person who is attached to the U.S., and imagines that without U.S. favour it is not possible to move a step in the country, he will not be a good colleague for you.”
Even if Mr. Pezeshkian makes it to the second round, Ms. Vakil predicted it will be difficult to generate the voter excitement that propelled Mr. Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, another reformer who won election, to power in 1997 and 2013, respectively. Their presidencies revealed the inability of the country’s elected leaders to push through changes while the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council retain most key powers.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, who has been jailed since 2021 for her human-rights work, released a statement this week – posted to social-media accounts managed by her family – condemning the election as a farce.
“How can you, while holding a sword, gallows, weapons and prisons against the people with one hand, place a ballot box in front of the same people with the other hand, and deceitfully and falsely call them to the polls?”