U.S. support for Ukraine may be in peril under a Trump presidency

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Donald Trump’s looming return to the White House is seen as a major gain for Russia and a potentially disastrous turn of events for Ukraine. But neither of the two warring sides wanted to say so out loud on Wednesday.

The Kremlin reacted cautiously – at least in public – to news of Mr. Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was among the foreign leaders racing to congratulate Mr. Trump even before the vote counting was finished.

Mr. Trump has spoken repeatedly in the past of his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and hinted at ending the massive U.S. military aid to Ukraine that has allowed the country to defend itself against the full-scale invasion Mr. Putin ordered 2 ½ years ago.

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Mr. Putin had no immediate plans to congratulate the U.S. president-elect. “Let us not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country, which is both directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state,” Mr. Peskov told reporters in Moscow.

After a series of defeats early in the war, Russian troops now occupy about 20 per cent of Ukraine and have been relentlessly grinding forward and capturing more land in recent months, primarily in Ukraine’s southeastern Donbas region. Kyiv’s ability to resist its larger neighbour has been largely owing to tens of billions of dollars of military support – including advanced tanks and rocket systems, as well as intelligence sharing – that it received from President Joe Biden’s administration.

Though the future of that assistance is now in question, Mr. Zelensky was quick to try and put a positive spin on Mr. Trump’s return to the White House.

“Congratulations to Donald Trump on his impressive election victory!” the Ukrainian leader wrote on social media shortly after Mr. Trump claimed victory in a speech to supporters. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.”

Mr. Trump made no mention of Russia or Ukraine during his speech, but said, “I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop the wars.”

Ukrainians fear that Mr. Trump – who said on the campaign trail that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war “in 24 hours” – could use the threat of ending U.S. military support to force Kyiv to accept a peace deal largely on Mr. Putin’s terms. Mr. Trump’s running mate JD Vance, now the vice-president elect, has spoken in vague terms of a plan that would freeze the conflict along its current front lines, representing a major territorial concession to Moscow, while making Ukraine a permanently neutral state by guaranteeing it would never join the NATO military alliance.

Mr. Vance’s formula would be bitter for Mr. Zelensky and Ukrainian society to accept, even as opinion polls show growing exhaustion with a war that has killed tens of thousands of people and seen entire cities destroyed. But it also would be very difficult for Ukraine to fight on without U.S. backing.

Vadym Prystaiko, a former Ukrainian foreign minister and ambassador to Canada, said that while the Kremlin was being coy about recognizing Mr. Trump’s victory, there was no question that Mr. Putin and his entourage would be delighted with the election result.

“I’m sure they’ve opened so many champagne bottles already,” Mr. Prystaiko said in an interview in Kyiv. By not congratulating Mr. Trump on his win, the Kremlin was “raising the bar,” Mr. Prystaiko added. “Now Trump will have to jump to reach this bar, this big Russian leader who is not recognizing him yet.”

Mr. Trump’s inauguration is also still more than 10 weeks away. Mykhailo Samus, a military analyst who prepares reports for the Ukrainian government, said he expected the Jan. 20 inauguration date would now become something of an informal deadline for Russian forces to seize as much land as they could, before the start of any possible negotiations.

At a minimum, Russian troops are expected to try and capture the remaining parts of the Donbas region still in Ukrainian hands, including the cities of Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Mr. Putin also claims the southern Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as Russian territory, though the capital cities of both regions are under firm Ukrainian control.

Valeriy Chaliy, a former Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., told a conference in Kyiv on Wednesday that he hoped Mr. Biden would provide as much support to Ukraine as he could during his remaining time in office.

“Joseph Biden remains President of the United States until Jan. 20 – and do not forget that right now every week and every month is important for Ukraine.”

With a report from Kateryna Hatsenko.