Here are Thursday’s updates and key things to know about the U.S. election

When is the U.S. election?
Who is leading in the polls?
Swing states and Electoral College explained
Divided over democracy
Key background on the issues

This story is no longer being updated. For our latest news on the U.S. election, visit tgam.ca/us-election-updates.

What you need to know

Latest updates

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump courted Hispanic voters in Nevada today. Singer Jennifer Lopez spoke at Ms. Harris’s rally in Las Vegas where Mexican pop rock band Mana performed, while Mr. Trump held a rally in Henderson and also travelled to New Mexico.
Donald Trump has said that the solution to California’s parched forests and fields lies in Canada, reigniting concerns that the U.S. could press Canada to help solve its mounting water shortages.
A Pennsylvania state judge said today he would not immediately move forward with a lawsuit that seeks to stop Elon Musk’s $1-million voter giveaway

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A video clip from a conference call where U.S. President Joe Biden seemed to liken Donald Trump supporters to ‘garbage’ has triggered clarifications from the president and White House, Patrick Dell explains.
The presidential campaigns have increasingly turned to podcasters, YouTubers, streamers and social media stars as gateways to very specific segments of potential voters they are unlikely to reach through cable news or rallies.
In 2016, roughly 90 per cent of polls wrongly predicted that Mr. Trump would lose. In 2020, polls correctly predicted the outcome, but still underestimated Donald Trump’s national performance. Here’s why this time may be different.

Commentary

Tony Keller weighs in on Donald Trump’s tariff plans, and what they could mean for Canada
Whether Mr. Trump or Kamala Harris wins the election, Konrad Yakabuski writes that U.S. foreign policy is headed into uncharted territory
With barriers removed, with the judiciary in his corner, with media cowed, and with the authoritarian-styled changes he has in mind, Mr. Trump could be on the verge of becoming the most powerful president ever, with authority tantamount to that of an autocrat, Lawrence Martin writes.
From the Ukrainian port of Odesa, Michael Bociurkiw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, analyzes why a nation at war feels so cornered by the U.S. presidential election and the prospect of a Trump resurgence.
The Madison Square Garden rally was scarier than anything you’ll see this Halloween, but Nazi analogies aren’t helpful, Marsha Lederman writes.
Ms. Harris’s Tuesday evening speech on the White House Ellipse offered a modern riff on what truly makes America great, Konrad Yakabuski writes.

When is the U.S. election? When do we know results?

Polling hours on Nov. 5 will vary state by state, with the earliest ones opening at 6 a.m. (ET). Polls generally close between 6 to 9 p.m. local time, but governments can ask the courts for extensions. Once the counting of in-person and mail-in ballots starts, it’s anyone’s guess how long it will take to get a result: In 2020, logistical problems, disputes and recounts left the outcome uncertain for days. Until then, Globe readers can get the latest news in their inboxes through the Morning Update newsletter, or subscribe to the U.S. election topic page.

Who is leading in the polls?

Nationally, the main presidential candidates are effectively deadlocked, according to the latest tracking by FiveThirtyEight, a poll-aggregation service owned by the ABC news network. Kamala Harris and the Democrats are slightly ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s national averages, but still within the margin of error. All but a few states (more on those later) are solidly behind either Ms. Harris or Donald Trump and the Republicans.

Where Kamala Harris stands

Ms. Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, must see the Democrats through a turbulent campaign that, until late July, centred on President Joe Biden, who agreed not to run again after a poor debate performance and questions about the 81-year-old’s mental fitness. The party and its donors united quickly behind Ms. Harris, 60, an unprecedented process that, in a country with long election cycles, left her with less time than other candidates to win over the public. While she is already a known quantity to Americans – she ran for the Democratic nomination in 2016, and as Vice-President, handled challenging files from foreign policy to immigration – that also means she must win over constituencies skeptical of that record, such as Arab American voters angry over her support for Israel, and working-class voters unhappy with rising inflation.

Where Donald Trump stands

Since losing the 2020 election, Mr. Trump, 78, has been convicted in a felony fraud case and found liable for sexual abuse, and is still fighting in court against other allegations of serious crimes during his presidency. Through rallies, interviews and the social-media platform he owns, he continues to spread conspiracy theories and threats of retribution against prosecutors and law enforcement. Anti-immigrant rhetoric is, as in 2020, central to his campaign, and promises of mass deportations and border walls still resonate with his die-hard MAGA base in border states.

U.S. President Joe Biden, dressed as himself, and first lady Jill Biden, dressed as a panda, greet trick-or-treaters at the White House on Oct. 30. Every four years, Halloween often falls the week before a presidential election, which, by law, must be on the Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Ben Curtis/The Associated Press

New York’s Young Republican Club held its sixth annual MAGAWEEN party on Oct. 26, the night before Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally. This man recreated the fry-cook outfit Mr. Trump wore at a McDonald’s in Feasterville-Trevose, Pa., for a staged campaign stop earlier that week. Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

New York played host to a Halloween dog parade on Oct. 19, where Peppa the toy poodle rode in a carrier of fake noodles. The sign quotes Mr. Trump’s false claim about Haitian migrants eating pets in Ohio, which he made at a TV debate against Kamala Harris. Caitlin Ochs/Reuters

Map of the swing states, and the Electoral College explained

Swing states – sometimes called purple states, for their split loyalties between Democratic blue and Republican red – can make all the difference in close races such as this one.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are purple because they chose Mr. Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020; so is Nevada, whose Democratic wins were close both times. North Carolina may also be in play for Ms. Harris because of shifting demographics and a gubernatorial scandal, among other factors. To see what happens if each of these states swings red or blue, use our interactive tool to explore the different scenarios.

Swing states would matter a lot less if not for the Electoral College that Americans have used since the late 1700s. Nobody wins the presidency simply by getting the most votes nationwide: Instead, those votes determine a list of 538 people called electors, whom the states assign to pick the president. Some states have more electors than others, and different rules for choosing who they are: Some are party officials, but many are regular citizens.

In all but two states, the Democrats or Republicans get electors on a winner-take-all basis. If, for instance, Ms. Harris wins California’s popular vote, she gets all 54 electors. That’s not how it works in Maine and Nebraska, which can pick mixed groups of electors based on congressional and popular votes.

If the college’s vote results in a Harris-Trump tie, the new House of Representatives breaks it via a process that hasn’t been used since 1825. The legislative blocs from each state pick one candidate, and whoever gets 26 or more states wins. “Contingent elections” like these give disproportionate voting power to less populous red states, which are numerous enough that the House would likely pick Mr. Trump.

This Trump supporter's mask in Johnstown, Pa., has a bandaged ear and bloody chin evoking the ex-president's injuries after a gunman shot him at a rally in July. Not since 1968 has anyone come so close to assassinating a presidential candidate.Justin Merriman/Getty Images

Divided over democracy

Each candidate is, in their own way, framing this election as a battle for the future of democracy itself. Ms. Harris has called Mr. Trump a “fascist,” pointing to Project 2025 – a think tank’s proposal to stack the public service with GOP loyalists – and warning that, if re-elected, he would seek “unchecked power” and a military loyal only to him. Mr. Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, but has spent months proposing his own purges of U.S. institutions, and casting doubt on the integrity of the voting process. In polls over the past year, a majority of Republicans say they believe his false claims that the 2020 election was illegitimate, and are heeding his baseless warnings of more fraud to come.

Fact checks from The Globe’s Patrick Dell

Trump repeated false election claims in podcast with Joe Rogan

Progress 2028 isn’t tied to Harris campaign, plus claims about missing migrant children and EV spending debunked

Examining ‘grossly exaggerated’ claims about Venezuelan gang activity in a Colorado city

Key background on the issues

With reports from Associated Press, Reuters and Globe staff

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What you need to know

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