Here are Tuesday’s updates and key things to know about the U.S. election

When is the U.S. election?
Who is leading in the polls?
Swing states and Electoral College explained
Divided over democracy
Key background on the issues

This story is no longer being updated. For our latest news on the U.S. election, visit tgam.ca/us-election-updates.

What you need to know

Latest updates

Kamala Harris delivered her presidential campaign’s closing argument at the same spot where Donald Trump spoke on Jan. 6, 2021, to supporters who then attacked the U.S. Capitol. Mr. Trump spoke at Mar-a-Lago, before visiting a heavily Latino city in Pennsylvania, two days after his rally at Madison Square Garden in New York was criticized because of a speaker’s vulgar remarks about Latinos.
Former Trump aide Steve Bannon was released early from prison on Tuesday in Danbury, Ct., where he served four months for contempt of Congress. Mr. Bannon had refused a subpoena from the Jan. 6 inquiry.
Over the summer, Globe feature writer Ian Brown and photographer Barbara Davidson travelled from California to New York, stopping in several swing states. On today’s episode of The Decibel, Mr. Brown explains what they saw.

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U.S. citizens overseas can vote thanks to a law called UOCAVA, which Republicans are targeting with false claims about electoral fraud. The Globe’s Patrick Dell analyzed some of the common misinformation on social media.

Commentary

Sunday’s Trump rally at Madison Square Garden was horrifying on its own, writes Marsha Lederman. By trying to find parallels to 1939, well-meaning critics invite accusations of hyperbole, overreach, and hysteria.
Globe columnist Doug Saunders spent more than a year following the perilous travels of Kerli Vasquez, a Venezuelan migrant who, in New York, is now watching an election that could decide her family’s fate.
How did billionaire tech titan Elon Musk become such a loyal Trumpist, and how could he shape the election’s outcome? Lawrence Martin takes a look.

When is the U.S. election? When do we know results?

Polling hours on Nov. 5 will vary state by state, with the earliest ones opening at 6 a.m. (ET). Polls generally close between 6 to 9 p.m. local time, but governments can ask the courts for extensions. Once the counting of in-person and mail-in ballots starts, it’s anyone’s guess how long it will take to get a result: In 2020, logistical problems, disputes and recounts left the outcome uncertain for days. Until then, Globe readers can get the latest news in their inboxes through the Morning Update newsletter, or subscribe to the U.S. election topic page.

Who is leading in the polls?

Nationally, the main presidential candidates are effectively deadlocked, according to the latest tracking by FiveThirtyEight, a poll-aggregation service owned by the ABC news network. Kamala Harris and the Democrats are slightly ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s national averages, but still within the margin of error. All but a few states (more on those later) are solidly behind either Ms. Harris or Donald Trump and the Republicans.

Where Kamala Harris stands

Ms. Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, must see the Democrats through a turbulent campaign that, until late July, centred on President Joe Biden, who agreed not to run again after a poor debate performance and questions about the 81-year-old’s mental fitness. The party and its donors united quickly behind Ms. Harris, 60, an unprecedented process that, in a country with long election cycles, left her with less time than other candidates to win over the public. While she is already a known quantity to Americans – she ran for the Democratic nomination in 2016, and as Vice-President, handled challenging files from foreign policy to immigration – that also means she must win over constituencies skeptical of that record, such as Arab American voters angry over her support for Israel, and working-class voters unhappy with rising inflation.

Where Donald Trump stands

Since losing the 2020 election, Mr. Trump, 78, has been convicted in a felony fraud case and found liable for sexual abuse, and is still fighting in court against other allegations of serious crimes during his presidency. Through rallies, interviews and the social-media platform he owns, he continues to spread conspiracy theories and threats of retribution against prosecutors and law enforcement. Anti-immigrant rhetoric is, as in 2020, central to his campaign, and promises of mass deportations and border walls still resonate with his die-hard MAGA base in border states.

Atlanta has been a busy stop for the candidates because Georgia, which the Democrats only narrowly won in 2020, is a swing state. Eight of the past 10 elections have been Republican victories; before Mr. Biden, the last Democratic winner here was Bill Clinton, a southerner from Arkansas, in 1992. Andrew Kelly/Reuters

In the South, this election year is significant as the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act, the beginning of the end of Jim Crow segregation and vote-suppression laws. Johnny Newson of Clarksdale, Miss., recalls his father attending a community meeting at church in the mid-1960s – possibly to discuss voting – when an unknown assailant’s firebomb hit him in the leg, but did not explode. Kevin Wurm/Reuters

At Big Bethel Baptist Church in Atlanta, Paulyne Morgan White, a 95-year-old who uses a walker, spoke at one Sunday service about her plans to cast a ballot in person on Nov. 5: ‘I like the activity. And I don't have to wait in line.’ She also attended a church discussion about Project 2025, the conservative Heritage Foundation's plans for a more powerful right-wing presidency. Kevin Wurm/Reuters

Map of the swing states, and the Electoral College explained

Swing states – sometimes called purple states, for their split loyalties between Democratic blue and Republican red – can make all the difference in close races such as this one.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are purple because they chose Mr. Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020; so is Nevada, whose Democratic wins were close both times. North Carolina may also be in play for Ms. Harris because of shifting demographics and a gubernatorial scandal, among other factors. To see what happens if each of these states swings red or blue, use our interactive tool to explore the different scenarios.

Swing states would matter a lot less if not for the Electoral College that Americans have used since the late 1700s. Nobody wins the presidency simply by getting the most votes nationwide: Instead, those votes determine a list of 538 people called electors, whom the states assign to pick the president. Some states have more electors than others, and different rules for choosing who they are: Some are party officials, but many are regular citizens.

In all but two states, the Democrats or Republicans get electors on a winner-take-all basis. If, for instance, Ms. Harris wins California’s popular vote, she gets all 54 electors. That’s not how it works in Maine and Nebraska, which can pick mixed groups of electors based on congressional and popular votes.

If the college’s vote results in a Harris-Trump tie, the new House of Representatives breaks it via a process that hasn’t been used since 1825. The legislative blocs from each state pick one candidate, and whoever gets 26 or more states wins. “Contingent elections” like these give disproportionate voting power to less populous red states, which are numerous enough that the House would likely pick Mr. Trump.

Through the slogan 'we're not going back,' the Harris campaign seeks to present itself as forward-looking and Mr. Trump as a reactionary who endangers civil liberties.Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Divided over democracy

Each candidate is, in their own way, framing this election as a battle for the future of democracy itself. Ms. Harris has called Mr. Trump a “fascist,” pointing to Project 2025 – a think tank’s proposal to stack the public service with GOP loyalists – and warning that, if re-elected, he would seek “unchecked power” and a military loyal only to him. Mr. Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, but has spent months proposing his own purges of U.S. institutions, and casting doubt on the integrity of the voting process. In polls over the past year, a majority of Republicans say they believe his false claims that the 2020 election was illegitimate, and are heeding his baseless warnings of more fraud to come.

Fact checks from The Globe’s Patrick Dell

Trump repeated false election claims in podcast with Joe Rogan

Progress 2028 isn’t tied to Harris campaign, plus claims about missing migrant children and EV spending debunked

Examining ‘grossly exaggerated’ claims about Venezuelan gang activity in a Colorado city

Key background on the issues

With reports from Associated Press, Reuters and Globe staff

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What you need to know

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