Here are Sunday’s updates and key things to know about the U.S. election

When is the U.S. election?
Who is leading in the polls?
Swing states and Electoral College explained
Divided over democracy
Key background on the issues

This story is no longer being updated. For our latest news on the U.S. election, visit tgam.ca/us-election-updates.

What you need to know

Latest updates

Donald Trump made off-the-cuff remarks at a rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania where he denounced polls showing movement for Harris and called Democrats a “demonic party.” He later spoke in Kinston, North Carolina, and in Macon, Georgia, where he seized on last week’s jobs report that showed the U.S. economy only produced 12,000 jobs last month.
Kamala Harris urged people to vote in a speech at a historically Black church in Detroit. At a later rally in East Lansing, Michigan, Ms. Harris addressed the state’s Arab American residents, starting her speech with a nod to civilian victims of Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Michigan is a crucial state for Ms. Harris, and one where some are frustrated that the current administration has not done more to help end the war in Gaza and scale back aid to Israel.
On Saturday, Ms. Harris appeared on the “Saturday Night Live” TV comedy show, her first appearance on the show that has hosted other political candidates in the past, including Mr. Trump during his first run for president in 2015. Harris played herself opposite Maya Rudolph, the actor who plays Ms. Harris on the show. The two traded variations on Ms. Harris’s first name, saying Americans want to “end the drama-la” in politics “with a cool new stepmom-ala.”

Go deeper

Mr. Trump’s new way of doing politics has inspired a raft of imitators, but in swing state North Carolina, Republican candidate for governor Mark Robinson proves Trump-style politics are difficult to replicate.
Economics is complicated, but Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump each have charts to choose from that give voters a simpler, more persuasive story about their fiscal plans. Our business reporters focused on 12 critical ones.
Pro-choice Floridians have a chance on Nov. 5 to reverse the state’s abortion ban and restore Roe v. Wade-era rights in the state constitution. In Orlando, Erin Anderssen asked activists how they’re organizing.

Commentary

An extraordinary number of elements still remain in play as election day approaches, each one a vital question that political analysts are weighing and that campaign strategists are seeking to influence, David Shribman writes.
Feature writer Ian Brown took a bus trip through America last summer. Again and again, he ran smack into the cognitive dissonance that characterizes the 2024 U.S. election.
The Evangelical right’s love of “weirdness” – standing apart from the rest of society – can help explain its attraction to a less-than-godly man like Donald Trump, Brandon Ambrosino writes.
Most Americans have no political ideology. So what are they fighting about? Psychology professor Keith Paine looks at the mental gymnastics of modern partisanship.

When is the U.S. election? When do we know results?

Polling hours on Nov. 5 will vary state by state, with the earliest ones opening at 6 a.m. (ET). Polls generally close between 6 to 9 p.m. local time, but governments can ask the courts for extensions. Once the counting of in-person and mail-in ballots starts, it’s anyone’s guess how long it will take to get a result: In 2020, logistical problems, disputes and recounts left the outcome uncertain for days. Until then, Globe readers can get the latest news in their inboxes through the Morning Update newsletter, or subscribe to the U.S. election topic page.

Who is leading in the polls?

Nationally, the main presidential candidates are effectively deadlocked, according to the latest tracking by FiveThirtyEight, a poll-aggregation service owned by the ABC news network. Kamala Harris and the Democrats are slightly ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s national averages, but still within the margin of error. All but a few states (more on those later) are solidly behind either Ms. Harris or Donald Trump and the Republicans.

Where Kamala Harris stands

Ms. Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, must see the Democrats through a turbulent campaign that, until late July, centred on President Joe Biden, who agreed not to run again after a poor debate performance and questions about the 81-year-old’s mental fitness. The party and its donors united quickly behind Ms. Harris, 60, an unprecedented process that, in a country with long election cycles, left her with less time than other candidates to win over the public. While she is already a known quantity to Americans – she ran for the Democratic nomination in 2016, and as Vice-President, handled challenging files from foreign policy to immigration – that also means she must win over constituencies skeptical of that record, such as Arab American voters angry over her support for Israel, and working-class voters unhappy with rising inflation.

Where Donald Trump stands

Since losing the 2020 election, Mr. Trump, 78, has been convicted in a felony fraud case and found liable for sexual abuse, and is still fighting in court against other allegations of serious crimes during his presidency. Through rallies, interviews and the social-media platform he owns, he continues to spread conspiracy theories and threats of retribution against prosecutors and law enforcement. Anti-immigrant rhetoric is, as in 2020, central to his campaign, and promises of mass deportations and border walls still resonate with his die-hard MAGA base in border states.

Dancers wait to perform at a get-out-the-vote event in Fort Defiance, Ariz., on Navajo Nation territory. About 5.2 per cent of Arizonans are Native American, and they are often credited for flipping the Republican state to Joe Biden in 2020, when he won by 10,457 votes. Rodrigo Abd/The Associated Press

This woman is campaigning for Kamala Harris at the Western Navajo Fair in Tuba City. Ms. Harris, Mr. Biden and vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz have all paid visits to the reservation, the largest in the United States. The GOP, meanwhile, is trying to capitalize on economic malaise to win over Navajo. Rodrigo Abd/The Associated Press

Goat herder Richard Begay begins his day at 6 a.m. in Dilkon, Ariz., to listen to conservative radio and drink coffee from a mug reading ‘TRUMP. Best President Ever.’ Rising gas and food prices squeeze Mr. Begay’s finances, and he blames Mr. Biden, hoping deregulation by Donald Trump could improve things. Rodrigo Abd/The Associated Press

Map of the swing states, and the Electoral College explained

Swing states – sometimes called purple states, for their split loyalties between Democratic blue and Republican red – can make all the difference in close races such as this one.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are purple because they chose Mr. Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020; so is Nevada, whose Democratic wins were close both times. North Carolina may also be in play for Ms. Harris because of shifting demographics and a gubernatorial scandal, among other factors. To see what happens if each of these states swings red or blue, use our interactive tool to explore the different scenarios.

Swing states would matter a lot less if not for the Electoral College that Americans have used since the late 1700s. Nobody wins the presidency simply by getting the most votes nationwide: Instead, those votes determine a list of 538 people called electors, whom the states assign to pick the president. Some states have more electors than others, and different rules for choosing who they are: Some are party officials, but many are regular citizens.

In all but two states, the Democrats or Republicans get electors on a winner-take-all basis. If, for instance, Ms. Harris wins California’s popular vote, she gets all 54 electors. That’s not how it works in Maine and Nebraska, which can pick mixed groups of electors based on congressional and popular votes.

If the college’s vote results in a Harris-Trump tie, the new House of Representatives breaks it via a process that hasn’t been used since 1825. The legislative blocs from each state pick one candidate, and whoever gets 26 or more states wins. “Contingent elections” like these give disproportionate voting power to less populous red states, which are numerous enough that the House would likely pick Mr. Trump.

One of this Pennsylvania Trump supporter's buttons commemorates the candidate's return to Butler, Pa., months after the July rally where a would-be assassin with an AR-15 rifle grazed his ear. Republican and Democrat leaders alike denounced the attempted killing, calling for calm in a heated climate of U.S. politics.Jeenah Moon/Reuters

Divided over democracy

Each candidate is, in their own way, framing this election as a battle for the future of democracy itself. Ms. Harris has called Mr. Trump a “fascist,” pointing to Project 2025 – a think tank’s proposal to stack the public service with GOP loyalists – and warning that, if re-elected, he would seek “unchecked power” and a military loyal only to him. Mr. Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, but has spent months proposing his own purges of U.S. institutions, and casting doubt on the integrity of the voting process. In polls over the past year, a majority of Republicans say they believe his false claims that the 2020 election was illegitimate, and are heeding his baseless warnings of more fraud to come.

Fact checks from The Globe’s Patrick Dell

Trump repeated false election claims in podcast with Joe Rogan

Progress 2028 isn’t tied to Harris campaign, plus claims about missing migrant children and EV spending debunked

Examining ‘grossly exaggerated’ claims about Venezuelan gang activity in a Colorado city

Key background on the issues

With reports from Associated Press, Reuters and Globe staff

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What you need to know

Latest updates

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