Here are Saturday’s updates and key things to know about the U.S. election

When is the U.S. election?
Who is leading in the polls?
Swing states and Electoral College explained
Divided over democracy
Key background on the issues

This story is no longer being updated. For our latest news on the U.S. election, visit tgam.ca/us-election-updates.

What you need to know

Latest updates

Kamala Harris unexpectedly flew to New York City to appear on the final episode of “Saturday Night Live” before Tuesday’s election, sources said. Earlier, Ms. Harris and Donald Trump headed to North Carolina to try to clinch support in the southeastern battleground state. Ms. Harris planned appearances with Jon Bon Jovi in Charlotte, North Carolina, while Mr. Trump held a rally in Gastonia, west of Charlotte.
Mr. Trump also visited Salem, Virginia, on Saturday despite polls showing a clear lead there for Ms. Harris. Ms. Harris, meanwhile, made a stop in the swing state of Georgia on Saturday.
Delayed vote-counting in Warren, in the battleground state of Michigan, is causing worry for Democrats. The city opted not to allow the preprocessing of absentee ballots and instead will wait until Election Day to tabulate more than 20,000 mail-in ballots. The potential delay from Warren has worried some Democratic leaders that it could leave the results appearing artificially high for Mr. Trump on election night, and could lead him to falsely declare victory in the state before all votes were in.

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In the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, election officials in North Carolina are scrambling to make sure voting runs smoothly, making allowances for people to vote outside their home counties and situating some voting sites in federal emergency tents equipped with generators.
With the presidential race still deadlocked, control of the White House in the Nov. 5 election is likely to be decided by turnout, particularly which side is better able to get both its support base and low-propensity voters to cast ballots. Adrian Morrow explains.
The outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election will have implications around the globe, writes Mark MacKinnon. A Harris presidency likely means stability in Kyiv’s most important relationship, while a Trump win means four years of dealing with a U.S. leader who openly admires Russian President Vladimir Putin.
A misleading video posted on X alongside claims that “illegal Haitian immigrants” had voted multiple times in Georgia has been debunked by officials and linked to Russian disinformation efforts.

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This election is not about issues. It’s not even about personalities or character, writes Ken Dryden. It’s about world views, about understandings of humanity, about the big picture in its biggest sense. And on these, the people have made up their minds.
Whoever wins, there’s a good chance the economic backdrop facing the next president will turn markedly less favourable during his or her term, writes John Rapley.
An April poll found that 81 per cent of white evangelicals said they would vote for Mr. Trump if the election were held the day they answered. The question is: why? Brandon Ambrosino explores that query.
The vast majority of Americans have no political ideology, writes Keith Payne. So, what are they fighting over anyway?

When is the U.S. election? When do we know results?

Polling hours on Nov. 5 will vary state by state, with the earliest ones opening at 6 a.m. (ET). Polls generally close between 6 to 9 p.m. local time, but governments can ask the courts for extensions. Once the counting of in-person and mail-in ballots starts, it’s anyone’s guess how long it will take to get a result: In 2020, logistical problems, disputes and recounts left the outcome uncertain for days. Until then, Globe readers can get the latest news in their inboxes through the Morning Update newsletter, or subscribe to the U.S. election topic page.

Who is leading in the polls?

Nationally, the main presidential candidates are effectively deadlocked, according to the latest tracking by FiveThirtyEight, a poll-aggregation service owned by the ABC news network. Kamala Harris and the Democrats are slightly ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s national averages, but still within the margin of error. All but a few states (more on those later) are solidly behind either Ms. Harris or Donald Trump and the Republicans.

Where Kamala Harris stands

Ms. Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, must see the Democrats through a turbulent campaign that, until late July, centred on President Joe Biden, who agreed not to run again after a poor debate performance and questions about the 81-year-old’s mental fitness. The party and its donors united quickly behind Ms. Harris, 60, an unprecedented process that, in a country with long election cycles, left her with less time than other candidates to win over the public. While she is already a known quantity to Americans – she ran for the Democratic nomination in 2016, and as Vice-President, handled challenging files from foreign policy to immigration – that also means she must win over constituencies skeptical of that record, such as Arab American voters angry over her support for Israel, and working-class voters unhappy with rising inflation.

Where Donald Trump stands

Since losing the 2020 election, Mr. Trump, 78, has been convicted in a felony fraud case and found liable for sexual abuse, and is still fighting in court against other allegations of serious crimes during his presidency. Through rallies, interviews and the social-media platform he owns, he continues to spread conspiracy theories and threats of retribution against prosecutors and law enforcement. Anti-immigrant rhetoric is, as in 2020, central to his campaign, and promises of mass deportations and border walls still resonate with his die-hard MAGA base in border states.

To win votes in Michigan and its main city, Detroit, candidates must play by stricter rules than in decades past. Since 2018, the swing state has become a leader in electoral reform, making it easier to vote early and harder to skew results via gerrymandering or meddling in the certification process. Andrew Kelly/Reuters

Kamala Harris is counting on Michigan’s manufacturing sector, and the unions representing it, to help the Democrats. At this rally in Flint, the United Auto Workers leader wore a ‘Trump is a scab’ T-shirt, as he did at Chicago’s Democratic convention in August. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Michigan is home to large Arab American diasporas, like the worshippers at this mosque in Dearborn Heights. The conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon have split voters who are unhappy with Ms. Harris’s support for Israel, but fear what a re-elected Donald Trump would do instead. Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images

Map of the swing states, and the Electoral College explained

Swing states – sometimes called purple states, for their split loyalties between Democratic blue and Republican red – can make all the difference in close races such as this one.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are purple because they chose Mr. Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020; so is Nevada, whose Democratic wins were close both times. North Carolina may also be in play for Ms. Harris because of shifting demographics and a gubernatorial scandal, among other factors. To see what happens if each of these states swings red or blue, use our interactive tool to explore the different scenarios.

Swing states would matter a lot less if not for the Electoral College that Americans have used since the late 1700s. Nobody wins the presidency simply by getting the most votes nationwide: Instead, those votes determine a list of 538 people called electors, whom the states assign to pick the president. Some states have more electors than others, and different rules for choosing who they are: Some are party officials, but many are regular citizens.

In all but two states, the Democrats or Republicans get electors on a winner-take-all basis. If, for instance, Ms. Harris wins California’s popular vote, she gets all 54 electors. That’s not how it works in Maine and Nebraska, which can pick mixed groups of electors based on congressional and popular votes.

If the college’s vote results in a Harris-Trump tie, the new House of Representatives breaks it via a process that hasn’t been used since 1825. The legislative blocs from each state pick one candidate, and whoever gets 26 or more states wins. “Contingent elections” like these give disproportionate voting power to less populous red states, which are numerous enough that the House would likely pick Mr. Trump.

Images of 2021's Capitol Hill insurrection play on the screens at August's Democratic convention in Chicago. The Harris campaign has regularly evoked that attack – and Mr. Trump's incendiary speech to the mob at a nearby rally – to argue that the ex-president is too unstable to govern again.Cheney Orr/Reuters

Divided over democracy

Each candidate is, in their own way, framing this election as a battle for the future of democracy itself. Ms. Harris has called Mr. Trump a “fascist,” pointing to Project 2025 – a think tank’s proposal to stack the public service with GOP loyalists – and warning that, if re-elected, he would seek “unchecked power” and a military loyal only to him. Mr. Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, but has spent months proposing his own purges of U.S. institutions, and casting doubt on the integrity of the voting process. In polls over the past year, a majority of Republicans say they believe his false claims that the 2020 election was illegitimate, and are heeding his baseless warnings of more fraud to come.

Fact checks from The Globe’s Patrick Dell

Trump repeated false election claims in podcast with Joe Rogan

Progress 2028 isn’t tied to Harris campaign, plus claims about missing migrant children and EV spending debunked

Examining ‘grossly exaggerated’ claims about Venezuelan gang activity in a Colorado city

Key background on the issues

With reports from Associated Press, Reuters and Globe staff

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What you need to know

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