Here are Friday’s updates and key things to know about the U.S. election

When is the U.S. election?
Who is leading in the polls?
Swing states and Electoral College explained
Divided over democracy
Key background on the issues

This story is no longer being updated. For our latest news on the U.S. election, visit tgam.ca/us-election-updates.

What you need to know

Latest updates

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump hosted dueling rallies Friday night in Milwaukee, as part of a fevered final push for votes in swing-state Wisconsin’s largest county.
False claims about voter fraud in Pennsylvania have raised concerns that Mr. Trump may once again seek to overturn the vote there or in other battleground states, likely to determine the winner next Tuesday.
Arizona‘s top prosecutor, a Democrat, said that her office was investigating whether Mr. Trump violated state law for suggesting prominent critic Liz Cheney should have rifles “shooting at her.” Ms. Cheney responded by calling the former U.S. president a “cruel, unstable man.”
Election officials in Georgia’s third-largest county said they’re late in mailing more than 3,000 absentee ballots to voters just a few days before the election.
Staff at U.S. voting machine companies have removed public information about themselves from the internet and have made contingency plans with local law enforcement, according to industry representatives.

Go deeper

The still-deadlocked U.S. election means control of the White House is likely to be decided by voter turnout, particularly which candidate is better able to get both their support base and low-propensity voters to cast ballots.
The old way of conducting presidential campaigns is dead. The two candidates are pioneering new ways of campaigning, sometimes through podcasts that reach narrow but important voter groups, sometimes with public appearances designed to reach voters far beyond those in attendance.
In Florida, it’s illegal to have an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, but this year, an amendment on the ballot could undo that. Erin Anderssen met the young activists organizing for their rights in a post-Roe world.
U.S. pollsters underestimated the Trump vote in the past two elections. Have they found a way to get it right in 2024? Nathan VanderKlippe looks at how surveys and statistics are trying to keep up with a changing electorate.

Commentary

Is MAGA the logical outcome of 20th-century Evangelicalism? To answer that, look to the aesthetics of the pro-Trump faction within the Christian right, not just its politics or faith, Brandon Ambrosino writes.
No matter who wins the election, the United States seems destined to enter a period of chaos and upheaval, Andrew Coyne writes. The only real question is for how long.
Canada is on the precipice of a new relationship with a partner yet unknown, Robyn Urback writes. All we can do is get our own affairs in order and brace for whoever it is.
Five years ago, if you told Republicans that Liz Cheney would one day be endorsing a Democrat for president they would have laughed. She is the last true hero of the party, Gary Mason writes.
Don’t forget about the Senate and House races, Debra Thompson writes: No matter who wins the presidency, Congress has the power to help or hurt them.
For women, there is so much at stake with this election – far beyond the chance to make history with a first female president, Marsha Lederman writes. This is a critical moment that could see women’s rights built back into the safe fortress of government protection, or melt away into the MAGA mire.

When is the U.S. election? When do we know results?

Polling hours on Nov. 5 will vary state by state, with the earliest ones opening at 6 a.m. (ET). Polls generally close between 6 to 9 p.m. local time, but governments can ask the courts for extensions. Once the counting of in-person and mail-in ballots starts, it’s anyone’s guess how long it will take to get a result: In 2020, logistical problems, disputes and recounts left the outcome uncertain for days. Until then, Globe readers can get the latest news in their inboxes through the Morning Update newsletter, or subscribe to the U.S. election topic page.

Who is leading in the polls?

Nationally, the main presidential candidates are effectively deadlocked, according to the latest tracking by FiveThirtyEight, a poll-aggregation service owned by the ABC news network. Kamala Harris and the Democrats are slightly ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s national averages, but still within the margin of error. All but a few states (more on those later) are solidly behind either Ms. Harris or Donald Trump and the Republicans.

Where Kamala Harris stands

Ms. Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, must see the Democrats through a turbulent campaign that, until late July, centred on President Joe Biden, who agreed not to run again after a poor debate performance and questions about the 81-year-old’s mental fitness. The party and its donors united quickly behind Ms. Harris, 60, an unprecedented process that, in a country with long election cycles, left her with less time than other candidates to win over the public. While she is already a known quantity to Americans – she ran for the Democratic nomination in 2016, and as Vice-President, handled challenging files from foreign policy to immigration – that also means she must win over constituencies skeptical of that record, such as Arab American voters angry over her support for Israel, and working-class voters unhappy with rising inflation.

Where Donald Trump stands

Since losing the 2020 election, Mr. Trump, 78, has been convicted in a felony fraud case and found liable for sexual abuse, and is still fighting in court against other allegations of serious crimes during his presidency. Through rallies, interviews and the social-media platform he owns, he continues to spread conspiracy theories and threats of retribution against prosecutors and law enforcement. Anti-immigrant rhetoric is, as in 2020, central to his campaign, and promises of mass deportations and border walls still resonate with his die-hard MAGA base in border states.

Students dance at a get-out-the-vote event at North Carolina A&T State University, the largest historically Black campus in the state. Black voters turned out in record numbers in North Carolina in 2020, when Donald Trump only narrowly won a normally reliable red state that Kamala Harris now hopes to flip blue. Jonathan Drake/Reuters

North Carolinians lost much this fall to Hurricane Helene, which wrecked this couple’s motor home in Asheville. The state ordered storm-damaged counties to open more ballot sites, and party organizers are going the extra mile: Republicans considered using mules or ATVs to carry people, Reuters reported. Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images

Mr. Trump has an ally in GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, but his abortion views give Democrats much fodder for campaign ads. Mr. Robinson said last year that, if he were in charge, ‘we could pass a bill saying you can’t have an abortion in North Carolina for any reason.’ Jonathan Drake/Reuters

Map of the swing states, and the Electoral College explained

Swing states – sometimes called purple states, for their split loyalties between Democratic blue and Republican red – can make all the difference in close races such as this one.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are purple because they chose Mr. Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020; so is Nevada, whose Democratic wins were close both times. North Carolina may also be in play for Ms. Harris because of shifting demographics and a gubernatorial scandal, among other factors. To see what happens if each of these states swings red or blue, use our interactive tool to explore the different scenarios.

Swing states would matter a lot less if not for the Electoral College that Americans have used since the late 1700s. Nobody wins the presidency simply by getting the most votes nationwide: Instead, those votes determine a list of 538 people called electors, whom the states assign to pick the president. Some states have more electors than others, and different rules for choosing who they are: Some are party officials, but many are regular citizens.

In all but two states, the Democrats or Republicans get electors on a winner-take-all basis. If, for instance, Ms. Harris wins California’s popular vote, she gets all 54 electors. That’s not how it works in Maine and Nebraska, which can pick mixed groups of electors based on congressional and popular votes.

If the college’s vote results in a Harris-Trump tie, the new House of Representatives breaks it via a process that hasn’t been used since 1825. The legislative blocs from each state pick one candidate, and whoever gets 26 or more states wins. “Contingent elections” like these give disproportionate voting power to less populous red states, which are numerous enough that the House would likely pick Mr. Trump.

Ms. Harris chose the Ellipse park in Washington as the site of an Oct. 29 rally billed as her closing argument to voters. It was here where, on Jan. 6, 2021, Mr. Trump rallied supporters who then stormed the nearby Capitol to stop lawmakers from finalizing Joe Biden's election victory.Carlos Barria/Reuters

Divided over democracy

Each candidate is, in their own way, framing this election as a battle for the future of democracy itself. Ms. Harris has called Mr. Trump a “fascist,” pointing to Project 2025 – a think tank’s proposal to stack the public service with GOP loyalists – and warning that, if re-elected, he would seek “unchecked power” and a military loyal only to him. Mr. Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, but has spent months proposing his own purges of U.S. institutions, and casting doubt on the integrity of the voting process. In polls over the past year, a majority of Republicans say they believe his false claims that the 2020 election was illegitimate, and are heeding his baseless warnings of more fraud to come.

Fact checks from The Globe’s Patrick Dell

Trump repeated false election claims in podcast with Joe Rogan

Progress 2028 isn’t tied to Harris campaign, plus claims about missing migrant children and EV spending debunked

Examining ‘grossly exaggerated’ claims about Venezuelan gang activity in a Colorado city

Key background on the issues

With reports from Associated Press, Reuters and Globe staff

Table of contents

What you need to know

Latest updates

Go deeper

Commentary