Ukraine, having recently received Washington’s permission to fire U.S.-made missiles into Russian territory, did so for the first time on Tuesday, the 1,000th day of war. The attacks on Bryansk region brought condemnation from Moscow, where President Vladimir Putin formally made it easier for his forces to launch nuclear weapons.
After nearly three years of conflict, and weeks of recent escalations on the Russian side, it remains to be seen how these new rules of engagement will change things. But in Western capital cities and global markets, it’s raised more alarm that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United States could be drawn into a wider conflict with the Putin regime, a scenario that the Biden administration – soon to be replaced by Donald Trump’s Republicans – has long tried to avoid.
Here’s a primer on what we know so far.
What are ATACMS?
About the missiles
The Army Tactical Missile System – known as ATACMS, pronounced “attack-ems” – was developed by U.S. aerospace and defence firm Lockheed Martin. There are several types, carrying varying amounts of cluster bomblets in ballistic missiles with nearly double the striking distance of Ukraine’s previous weapons. More precise targeting allows for pinpoint attacks up to 300 kilometres away. That’s an improvement over the domestically produced drones and other aerial weapons Ukraine has been firing at Russia: Some of those can travel up to 1,000 kilometres, but there aren’t enough of them to do serious long-term harm to weapons depots, air bases and infrastructure.
MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)
Solid fuel missile
Range:
Length:
Diameter:
Up to 300km
4m
610mm
Precision
GPS guidance
system gives
CEP (circular
error probable)
of 10-50m
Warheads
Anti-personnel
submunitions or
221kg high-explosive –
same warhead used
in Navy’s Harpoon
anti-ship missile
Flight
Missile
performs
rapid and
sudden course
corrections
to avoid
interception
Launcher
High Mobility
Artillery Rocket
System (HIMARS)
supplied to Ukraine
Source: graphic newsDefence View; Reuters; Lockheed Martin; U.S. Army
MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)
Solid fuel missile
Range:
Length:
Diameter:
Up to 300km
4m
610mm
Precision
GPS guidance
system gives
CEP (circular
error probable)
of 10-50m
Warheads
Anti-personnel
submunitions or
221kg high-explosive –
same warhead used
in Navy’s Harpoon
anti-ship missile
Flight
Missile
performs
rapid and
sudden course
corrections
to avoid
interception
Launcher
High Mobility
Artillery Rocket
System (HIMARS)
supplied to Ukraine
Source: graphic newsDefence View; Reuters; Lockheed Martin; U.S. Army
MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System
(ATACMS)
Solid fuel missile
Range:
Length:
Diameter:
Up to 300km
4m
610mm
Precision
GPS guidance
system gives
CEP (circular
error probable)
of 10-50m
Warheads
Anti-personnel
submunitions or
221kg high-explosive –
same warhead used
in Navy’s Harpoon
anti-ship missile
Flight
Missile
performs
rapid and
sudden course
corrections
to avoid
interception
Launcher
High Mobility
Artillery Rocket
System (HIMARS)
supplied to Ukraine
Source: graphic newsDefence View; Reuters; Lockheed Martin; U.S. Army
About Tuesday’s attacks
The town of Karachev is roughly 115 kilometres from the border in a Russian region called Bryansk. Ukraine said it had struck an arms depot there on Tuesday, causing secondary explosions. The Ukrainian military did not publicly specify which weapons it had used, but a Ukrainian official source and a U.S. official later confirmed to Reuters that it had used ATACMS. Russia reported its forces shot down five of the six missiles. Debris hit the facility, starting a fire that was swiftly put out and causing no casualties or damage, it said.
ATACMS vs. HIMARS
This is the second time Washington has expanded Ukraine’s authority to use U.S.-provided weapons inside Russia. In May, after Moscow’s offensive into Kharkiv threatened to stretch Ukrainian forces thin, President Joe Biden permitted the use of HIMARS – artillery rocket launchers with a range of 80 kilometres – to quell that advance. The decision helped Ukrainian soldiers stabilize the fight for a time by forcing Russia to pull back military assets.
The rules of engagement
Throughout the war, the United States has supplied Ukraine with dozens of ATACMS. They’ve been used on military targets in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, such as Crimea, but not in Russia proper. Mr. Biden lifted that restriction recently, according to a U.S. official and three other people familiar with the matter. At the G20 summit in Brazil, Mr. Biden did not comment on the policy shift.
U.S. and Ukrainian flags are marked with the names of fallen fighters at a memorial in Kyiv.Efrem Lukatsky/The Associated Press
How will Ukraine use the ATACMS?
Before the hit on Karachev, Associated Press cited a U.S. official and three other people familiar with the ATACMS development as saying the longer-range missiles are likely to be used in response to North Korea’s decision to send troops to support Kremlin forces. Pyongyang’s soldiers are apparently being deployed to help drive Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk border region, where they launched an incursion in August. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the U.S. decision publicly.
Senior U.S. defence and military leaders have argued that ATACMS won’t be a gamechanger: Russia has moved many key assets out of range, including the launching facilities for glide bombs. Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, said the U.S. decision would not alter the course of the war.
To really impose costs on Russia, Ukraine would need large stockpiles of ATACMS, which it doesn’t have and won’t receive because the United States’ own supplies are limited. Moreover, the biggest obstacle Ukraine faces is a lack of trained and ready personnel, a challenge that neither the United States nor its European allies can solve and that all the weapons in the world won’t overcome.
Russia parades some of its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launchers roll through Red Square for May's Victory Day parade. Russia, a nuclear nation since 1949, developed the world's first ICBMs during the Cold War.ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images
Putin’s new nuclear doctrine
Russia has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world, and through this war, Mr. Putin has threatened several times to use it if pushed too far. The Kremlin has rules for when it would allow the President to fire nuclear weapons, and on Tuesday, Mr. Putin loosened them.
Previously, the nuclear option was available only in case of a nuclear attack by an enemy, or a conventional attack that threatened the state’s existence. Now, nuclear strikes are allowed in response to conventional attacks that create “a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) their territorial integrity.” Any attack by a non-nuclear power supported by a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack, and any attack by one member of a military bloc would be considered an attack by the entire alliance.
The United States was not surprised by Russia lowering its threshold and does not plan to adjust its own nuclear posture in response, the White House National Security Council said Tuesday.