People, most of them expatriate Ukrainians, hold mirrors to symbolize the spiritual hole left by the deaths of Ukrainian children in the current war as they gather to mark Ukrainian independence day on Aug. 24, in Berlin.Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, Poland has been seen as the epicentre of the Ukrainian refugee crisis, as hundreds of thousands of people fled across the border seeking refuge. But a new study from researchers in Warsaw has found that a growing number of Ukrainians have left Poland for Germany.
In fact, Germany has surpassed Poland as the country hosting the most Ukrainian refugees, and the researchers said that by next year Ukrainians could comprise the largest ethnic group in Germany.
The number of Ukrainian citizens registered in Germany has climbed by more than 410,000 since August, 2022, and has fallen by 350,000 in Poland, said the study, released Tuesday by the University of Warsaw and EWL Group, a Polish employment agency.
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Germany was home to 1.1 million Ukrainian refugees as of June, 2023, compared with 975,000 in Poland, according to Eurostat, the statistics branch of the European Union. Those figures don’t include the smaller number of non-Ukrainian citizens who also fled Ukraine.
Prior to the war, Germany was not considered a prime destination for Ukrainians because of cultural and linguistic differences. About 150,000 Ukrainians lived in Germany as of December, 2021, representing just 1.3 per cent of the population.
“However, in just a year and a half this number increased sixfold, presenting a real challenge, but also an opportunity, for the German labour market,” said Michalina Sielewicz, one of the authors of the study. “If the war continues and current migration trends stay at a similar level, in 2024 Ukrainian citizens could become the largest group of foreigners in Germany.”
The researchers interviewed 400 Ukrainians who had left Poland for Germany. They found that most went on the recommendation of friends and to find better-paying jobs. Only 13 per cent said they would consider returning to Poland.
“Germany is able to offer more attractive social benefits and higher pay, as well as the possibility to accumulate more savings when living in that country, which directly influences the decision of Ukrainian refugees,” the study said.
The Polish government has reduced the financial support it offers refugees, and there has been growing resentment toward Ukrainians in Poland. “Too many emotions surrounding this issue may, to some extent, discourage refugees from staying in Poland, especially now that the whole EU is welcoming Ukrainian migrants,” said Jan Malicki, the director of the Centre for East European Studies at the University of Warsaw and a co-author of the study.
The researchers added that the loss of so many refugees could affect Polish businesses, which have relied for years on Ukrainians as a source of labour. “After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the opening of EU countries to refugees, the advantages of Poland as a first-choice country for migrants from Ukraine ceased to be unique,” said Andrzej Korkus, EWL Group’s chair. “Furthermore, in terms of remuneration, Poland still cannot compete with West European countries.”
Germany’s total population increased by 1.1 million last year, driven largely by the arrival of Ukrainians, according to the country’s statistics office. The uptick was even stronger than in 2015, when Germany opened its doors to an influx of Syrian refugees.
Many of those in Germany are hoping to stay a while. Forty-four per cent of Ukrainian refugees are planning to remain in Germany for a few more years or settle there permanently, an increase of five percentage points from last year, according to survey results published in July by DIW Berlin, a research institute.
Just under 20 per cent of Ukrainian refugees of working age (18 to 64) were employed in Germany as of early 2023, according to the DIW report. However, the vast majority of respondents – 75 per cent – were taking or had completed German-language courses, a critical step on the path to integration.
“These are people who arrived here without language skills,” said Yuliya Kosyakova, one of the researchers involved in the DIW survey. “They had to change their lives from yesterday to today. And in my view, actually, even an 18-per-cent employment rate, one year after the outbreak of the war, is good.”
But while more people are planning to settle in Germany, others’ lives are very much in flux, Dr. Kosyakova said.
A large portion of the refugees are mothers of young children, with partners back in Ukraine. Most children three to six years of age are enrolled in daycare, but not all families have managed to find spaces. This makes it challenging for mothers to secure employment or take German classes.
Ukrainians are able to stay in the European Union under a special protection status until March, 2024. The European Commission has said it is ready to extend that deadline by another year. Still, this hazy timeline makes it difficult for Ukrainian refugees to plan for the long term, Dr. Kosyakova said.
“They don’t know whether they will be able to stay. It creates a lot of uncertainties and stress.”