German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (centre left) and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (centre right) listen to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky (centre) on June 13, in Fasano, Italy.Supplied/Getty Images
One day before the start of a summit in Switzerland aimed at advancing a plan to end the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he is still seeking Kyiv’s capitulation, not a negotiated peace deal.
A weekend meeting at the Bürgenstock Resort, near Lucerne, which many Western leaders are attending, but Russia wasn’t invited to participate in, is expected to end with the endorsement of parts of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan, which calls for a complete Russian withdrawal to pre-2014 borders – before Russia seized and illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.
On Friday, Mr. Putin repeated his stand that peace will only come when Ukrainian troops withdraw from the southeastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – four Ukrainian provinces that he claims are now part of the Russian Federation, even though his troops only control parts of each. He also demanded yet again that Kyiv formally abandon its bid to join the NATO military alliance.
“As soon as Kyiv announces that it is ready for such a resolution and begins the actual withdrawal of troops from these regions, as well as makes an official notification that it has renounced plans to join NATO, our side will immediately issue an order to cease fire and begin negotiations, literally at that very moment,” Mr. Putin said in a speech to Russian diplomats.
His statements were immediately dismissed by Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Mr. Zelensky. “There is no novelty in this, no real peace proposals and no desire to end the war,” Mr. Podolyak wrote on X.
Mr. Putin’s statements seemed designed to rattle the Bürgenstock gathering, which was already shaping up to be something of a disappointment for Ukraine. While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are among the leaders expected to attend, the number of countries sending a delegation has been in flux, with Russia and its ally China accused of putting pressure on countries to skip the summit.
The Swiss Foreign Affairs Department said Friday that 92 countries and eight international organizations would take part in the meeting.
Mr. Zelensky has expressed personal disappointment that U.S. President Joe Biden will not take part, saying “Putin will personally applaud” his absence. Instead, the U.S. is sending a delegation headed by Vice-President Kamala Harris.
China is the most notable country to reject its invitation outright, and Kyiv has accused Beijing of pressing its allies not to attend. Among the BRICS group of countries, Brazil has said its ambassador to Switzerland will take part, while India has said it will attend but has not specified what level of delegation it will send. South Africa has not yet confirmed its attendance.
Ukraine initially hoped the conference would demonstrate global support for its peace terms – which would also see Russia pay reparations and the establishment of a special international tribunal to prosecute war crimes committed during the invasion. The summit will instead likely endorse only three parts of Mr. Zelensky’s 10-point plan, known as the Peace Formula.
Participants will work toward a communiqué on the issues of nuclear security, food security and the return of all prisoners of war, including Ukrainian children abducted by Russia since the start of the conflict.
While Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba said last week that “Ukraine will in no way deviate from the Peace Formula and will not agree to any decisions that would undermine it,” the trimmed agenda should make it easier to keep the backing of countries, including many from the Global South, that have been lukewarm in their support for Ukraine.
In another unsubtle message to the summit, nuclear-capable Russian warships arrived off the coast of Cuba this week. The deployment is seen as a show of force, intended to undermine the summit in Switzerland by raising the threat of a global conflagration if NATO and the West continue to support Ukraine.
While it’s hardly a rerun of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis – the Russian flotilla comprises just four ships, including a nuclear submarine and a frigate carrying hypersonic missiles – the timing of its mission is no accident.
Just as the 1962 deployment of Soviet missiles to Cuba was a response to the U.S. positioning nuclear weapons too close to the borders of the former Soviet Union, the Russian ships arrived in Havana less than two weeks after Mr. Biden authorized the Ukrainian military to use U.S.-made weapons to strike Russian territory, lifting a prohibition that had been in place since the start of the 27-month-old war.
After five days of exercises with the Cuban navy, the Russian ships – which also include an armoured tugboat and a refuelling ship – are then expected to visit Venezuela, another of Moscow’s allies in Latin America. U.S warships have shadowed the movements of the Russian vessels since their arrival in the region.
Cold War historian Sergey Radchenko said that while the Soviet Union initially sought to deny and then downplay its deployments to Cuba, Mr. Putin’s Kremlin has taken the opposite tack. “This time, Moscow is eager to parade its presence,” Prof. Radchenko said.
The Russian deployment to Cuba may also assist the presidential campaign of Donald Trump, who has told supporters that he alone can “prevent World War Three.” Mr. Trump has in the past expressed admiration for Mr. Putin and has said he would press Ukraine to accept a peace deal – by threatening to withhold U.S. military support – if he returns to the White House.