Panamanian-registered cargo ship Namura Queen, owned by a Japanese firm, anchored in the coast of Ciftlikkoy district in Yalova, Turkey, on Feb. 28. The ship was hit by a missile off the coast of Ukraine in the Black Sea.Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey will not abandon its ties with either Russia or Ukraine, but it will implement an international pact that will prevent warships from entering the Black Sea through the Turkish Straits.
On Sunday, Turkey called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “war,” paving the way for the country to use parts of the Montreux Convention, a 1936 international pact that allows Turkey to limit transit of warships in the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits when there is war in the region or when Turkey feels threatened. However, a clause allows ships to return to their registered base.
After a cabinet meeting Monday, Mr. Erdogan said Turkey, a NATO member, will not compromise its commitments to its alliances, but will not turn back from Ukraine or Russia. He also criticized Western countries’ response to Moscow, including the use of sanctions, while calling Russia’s invasion “unacceptable” and a “heavy blow” to security of the region.
State news agency Anadolu reported Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu as saying Turkey has warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. “We implemented what Montreux says, and we will do so from now on. There has been no request for passage through the straits until today,” Mr. Cavusoglu said according to Anadolu.
Yoruk Isik, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute and a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul, where he runs the Bosphorus Observer, a maritime consultancy, said he believes about four Russian ships are waiting on Turkey’s decision to cross from the Mediterranean.
Mr. Isik said that by closing the straits to all maritime traffic, Turkey is “bending backwards not to offend Russia. ”They could have very easily just targeted Russia, they chose not to do it. … But I see why they’re doing it and it is understandable,” he said, adding that Turkey is facing an economic crisis, so Turkish authorities likely did not want to escalate with Russia.
Mr. Isik told The Globe and Mail in an interview that Turkey’s decision to close the straits to warships is significant: “It is actually extremely important for psychological reasons, for political reasons, but also in very practical terms. It will hamper Russian efforts on multiple fronts. So it is vitally important.”
He pointed out that ships need maintenance, and with the waterways closed, Russia will not be able to bring vessels in to replace the current ships. He said Russia is “terrorizing the Black Sea.”
Last week, as Russia began invading, Ukraine’s government asked Turkey to prevent more Russian ships from entering the Black Sea. At least six Russian warships and a submarine have passed through Turkey’s straits this month.
Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar with Carnegie Europe, said because Turkey recognized the conflict as war, it has to close the straits to additional warships. “That article essentially obligates Turkey to close the straits. It does not give any room for discretion,” he said.
“This should not be seen, and Turkey would not portray it as such, as a sanction against Russia, because there is no political decision here,” he said. “This is Turkey complying with its obligations under the treaty. The only assessment that Turkey has had to make was to decide whether the current conflict can be categorized as a war.”
He added that it is a legalistic interpretation, and that is what defines Turkey’s approach.
Mr. Ulgen said he does not suspect the move will have much immediate impact militarily, because Russia has already amassed enough of its navy in the Black Sea. However, he said, it would be viewed politically as Turkey standing firm, because closing the straits would be detrimental to Russia over the medium and long term.
“In the medium term, if they had a plan to bring additional forces to the Black Sea, then those plans will be impeded,” he said.
Mr. Ulgen could not predict how Russia would react, but said perhaps it will understand that Turkey was obliged to do this. Moscow will challenge, however, Turkey’s description of the conflict as war, Mr. Ulgen said.
Turkey will be one of the countries detrimentally affected by the war in Ukraine, he said, because of economic ties to both countries.
With reports from Reuters
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