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Swing states played pivotal roles in all three of Trump‘s consecutive presidential runs, but the battlegrounds have changed significantly

On Wednesday morning, President-elect Donald Trump surpassed 270 electoral college votes to win the White House after a tight race with Vice-President Kamala Harris. All eyes were on the seven swing states that experts said would determine the results of the election – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

This was Trump’s third consecutive time running for president. Here’s how the swing-state results compared with his win in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, and his 2020 loss to Joe Biden.

Arizona

Traditionally a red state, Arizona has begun to turn purple with recent Democratic gains. Though the state has yet to be officially called – voters could wait the better part of two weeks for all ballots to be tabulated – the divide currently looks similar to Trump’s 2016 win. Back in 2020, Biden was able to attract a wave of moderate voters in the state to close the gap.

Georgia

After narrowly losing the state to Biden in 2020 – the first time Republicans have lost the presidential vote in Georgia since 1996 – Trump returned its 16 electoral votes to the Republican column. Trump tried to overturn his 2020 loss in Georgia, setting off a political and legal struggle that led to his indictment in the state. Exit polls showed a decrease of several points in Black support for Democrats, roughly parallel with Trump’s margin over Harris.

Michigan

The battleground state was part of the “blue wall” of swing states that Harris’s team said would lead to her path to victory. However, Trump reclaimed Michigan and its 15 electoral votes for the Republicans after Biden flipped it in 2020 on his way to the White House. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by just over 10,000 votes, marking the first time a Republican presidential candidate had secured the state in nearly three decades.

Ahead of the vote, it was evident that some political realignments had occurred throughout the state, affecting both parties. While Democrats grew their support of college-educated women and men, they lost the support of men without college degrees, who strongly turned to Trump. Michigan’s large Arab-American population shifted away from the Democrats this election, in part because of anger over the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza war.

Nevada

While it could be days before the final results are known in Nevada, Trump is currently leading the state – which he hadn’t been able to do in either of his past two elections. The state has flipped back and forth between the parties several times since the 1990s, usually on margins of a few percentage points.

North Carolina

In nine of the past 10 elections, the state has voted for the Republican candidate – with Barack Obama narrowly winning there in 2008. And ever since Obama’s close win, Democrats have dreamt of adding North Carolina to the blue block of states that stretches down the U.S. East Coast. However, Trump won the battleground state, beating Harris with a wider margin than against Biden in 2020.

Pennsylvania

The once-reliable Democratic stronghold was carried by Trump when he first won the White House in 2016 and then flipped back to Democrats in 2020. Trump was able to take the swing state again on election night, further cementing his victory. Pennsylvania was a must-win for Harris: No Democrat has captured the presidency without carrying the state since Harry Truman in 1948.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin followed a similar path to Pennsylvania in the past three elections, with much tighter margins. The state stands at the crossroads of the Rust Belt, the north woods and western farm country, with Democratic centres in Milwaukee and Madison, and Republican bastions in between. The Republican National Convention met this summer in Milwaukee, a sign of the importance the party places on the state.

With reports from Andrea Woo, Nathan VanderKlippe, Adam Radwanski and The Associated Press

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