Republican presidential candidate former president Donald Trump is surrounded by U.S. Secret Service agents at a campaign rally on July 13 in Butler, Pa.Evan Vucci/The Associated Press
It wasn’t long after Donald Trump left a Pennsylvania stage bloodied and defiant – the fist-pumping survivor of an assassination attempt – that his supporters began to try out new campaign slogans.
“First they tried to silence him. Then they tried to imprison him,” Congressman Cory Mills, a Florida Republican, wrote on social media.
“Now they try to kill him.”
Mr. Trump had already built his presidential campaign on a narrative of withstanding the forces marshalled against him. After he became the first convicted criminal to run for the U.S. presidency, his campaign assembled for his rallies a video montage of his judicial battles, beginning with the search of his residence at Mar-a-Lago. “They hated him,” the narrator intoned. “They hunted him.”
Now Mr. Trump has become the hunted in a far more visceral sense, as a result of an act of political violence that stands to reshape a bitterly fought campaign, perhaps to the former president’s advantage.
One of the defining images of Saturday’s shooting showed Mr. Trump standing in a cluster of Secret Service agents, blood streaking from his ear, with his fist raised and an American flag in the background. The photograph’s triangular composition evoked the historic image of American soldiers raising the flag at Iwo Jima, an enduring icon of U.S. victory.
What we know so far about the Trump assassination attempt
On Sunday, in a fundraising appeal sent by text message, Mr. Trump’s campaign rendered the photo of its candidate in black and white, leaving only the U.S. flag in colour beneath text that said “NEVER SURRENDER.”
It’s an image that “will be the visual people remember at the polling booth when they think about election 2024,” said Frank Luntz, a prominent Republican pollster. “The 2024 presidential election is now Trump’s to lose.”
Republican consultant Jon Gilmore likened the moment to when George W. Bush, after the Sept. 11 attacks, stood on the rubble of Ground Zero with a bullhorn and declared: “The people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon.” Public approval of Mr. Bush crested to 90 per cent in the aftermath of that attack.
Nearly a quarter-century later, major events cause only minor tremors in the country’s political foundations. Polls barely budged when Mr. Trump was convicted on 34 felony fraud counts. Public opinion showed little change after Joe Biden stumbled in a debate so badly that some in his own Democratic party began to call for his ouster. That makes it difficult to predict what effect – if any – the assassination attempt will have.
“There’s no precedent for a political shooting of a former president of the United States in the middle of an election like this,” said Mike Nellis, a prominent Democratic technologist and fundraiser who is founder of the digital marketing agency Authentic. “Not in the modern era of our politics.”
Fact-checking the disinformation being spread about the Trump rally shooting
Gun culture has always been a central, violent theme of America’s political climate
Theodore Roosevelt lost in the presidential election that took place weeks after he survived an assassination attempt. But that was an unusual political moment in another age, with two conservative contenders splitting the 1912 Republican vote. Today, gerrymandering and the algorithmically created social-media communities have contributed to a political calcification in which only a few voters in a few states decide national outcomes.
Mr. Trump, meanwhile, has proven a uniquely polarizing figure, his supporters historically immune to bad news about him and his opponents unable to countenance virtue in his political approach.
Still, Mr. Trump has for many months worked to erode some of the bastions of Democratic support. Polls have shown him advancing among Black, Hispanic and younger voters. He stands to solidify those gains with his conduct under fire, Republican strategist Jai Chabria said.
“The whole reason the Trump candidacy works is because people believe he’s fighting for them,” he said. On Saturday, a bloodied Mr. Trump urged the gathered crowd to “Fight! Fight!” before leaving the stage where bullets had flown moments before.
“It’s one of those perfect moments in politics,” Mr. Chabria said.
“Has it changed everything? No,” he added. “But all of these things are making it harder and harder for Joe Biden to retain the presidency.”
Democrats may also struggle in their efforts to criticize Mr. Trump as a menace to U.S. democracy, particularly after he survived a tangible threat to the country’s democratic process.
The assassination attempt “really puts Biden’s campaign in a tough spot,” said Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based Republican political consultant. “They’re going to be really risking a backlash if they continue to talk about Trump the way they have.”
For Mr. Trump, meanwhile, security concerns may weigh against future outdoor rallies, and the waves of enthusiasm and donations their large crowds generate, Mr. Mackowiak said.
Still, Mr. Luntz, the Republican pollster, expects Mr. Trump to get a decisive lift in support, energizing supporters who may prove critical after the past two elections, which were decided by fewer than 100,000 votes.
The attempted assassination could also bolster his policy agenda, he said.
“Trump has made crime a big issue in his campaign,” Mr. Luntz added. “The fact that he could have been killed makes his case even stronger.”