A soldier in a Karenni resistance force fires from a hotel room in Loikaw, capital of Myanmar's Karenni state, in a battle for control of a nearby police station. Ethnic militias like these have been waging war against Myanmar's military junta, which seized power in a coup on Feb. 1, 2021.Siegfried Modola/The Globe and Mail
Three years after Myanmar’s military seized power in a coup, resistance groups have urged the junta to come to the table and talk peace, after a series of stunning victories for rebel forces.
On Wednesday, the opposition National Unity Government and three allied ethnic militias published a joint declaration calling for the “annihilation of the military dictatorship and establishment of a federal democratic union.”
The document demands an end to military involvement in politics, the scrapping of the 2008 constitution drafted by the junta and the establishment of a system of transitional justice, among other objectives. If all parties agree to the terms, the NUG said, it would negotiate “with the responsible leadership of the Myanmar military” for a “peaceful transition of power.”
After a surprise attack by resistance groups in northern Myanmar in late October, the military has suffered an unprecedented string of defeats, ceding territory across the country and losing control of key trade links and towns.
On Wednesday, the junta extended a state of emergency that has been in place since the coup for another six months.
“The gains of some of the armed groups who oppose the Myanmar military have been quite astounding,” said Richard Horsey, a senior adviser for Myanmar at International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organization. “They have also revealed a historic level of weakness in the military that has motivated other groups across the country to go on the offensive as well.”
But Mr. Horsey cautioned this was not a “fall of Kabul moment” and said predictions the regime might collapse imminently were premature. The junta has responded to the recent loss of territory with characteristic brutality, bombarding towns with artillery and air strikes.
A man looks at destroyed homes in Laiza, Myanmar, this past October after air and artillery strikes in a camp for displaced people.The Associated Press
In a statement this week, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said the military has “consistently focused on the punishment of civilians who they view as supporting their enemies.” He called on member states to “take appropriate measures to address this crisis,” including further sanctions to constrain the junta’s “ability to commit serious violations and disregard international law, limiting access to weapons, jet fuel and foreign currency.”
The shifting web of control over Myanmar has complicated the delivery of humanitarian assistance, with international agencies struggling to reach those in opposition-held territories. NUG presidential spokesman U Kyaw Zaw urged the international community to work with his group to co-ordinate aid delivery and help displaced people.
“Anything that goes to Naypyidaw is just a photo op,” he said, referring to the military capital. “That will never reach the most vulnerable people.”
Made up largely of former members of the ousted civilian government, the NUG is the only group with any legitimate claim to represent the opposition at large, and ethnic armies generally defer to it as such. But it can be hard to gauge how much influence and support the NUG actually has across the country.
Myanmar has been in various states of civil war since it gained independence from Britain in 1948, and many ethnic armies have fought successive governments, both civilian and military. The junta’s recent setbacks have left some eyeing a level of autonomy and even de facto independence they could previously never dream of.
“None of these groups aspire to state control. This war is not about seizing power at the centre, it’s about ensuring they have political control of their homeland,” Mr. Horsey said. “A future Myanmar where the military is much weaker but doesn’t fall is also a Myanmar where non-state armed groups control a lot more territory. That’s going to be a problem for any future federalist government as well.”
Members of the Mandalay People's Defence Forces head to the front lines in Shan state in December.AFP via Getty Images
Mr. Kyaw Zaw insisted there was broad support among ethnic armies for the NUG’s federal vision. But the plan put forward this week was only endorsed by three groups that have long been allied with the NUG and does not appear to have the backing of the Arakan Army or other members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which launched the October offensive that transformed the conflict.
Recent advances have thoroughly rattled the junta, however, leaving it scrambling to shore up what support it has. They have also thrown into doubt the future of coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, who has faced criticism from nationalist figures and from within the military, as well as public calls to step down.
On Wednesday the junta announced a tweaking of election rules, an apparent signal that it plans to push ahead with a vote originally scheduled for last August. With the military only in control of roughly half the country and opposition parties such as the National League of Democracy barred from taking part, such an election has no chance of being free and fair.
Members of Myanmar's diaspora in Bangkok rally outside the country's embassy on Feb. 1, 2021, with posters denouncing coup leader Min Aung Hlaing.Sakchai Lalit/The Associated Press
Earlier this week, NUG president Duwa Lashi La said he expected the military would “mark Feb. 1 with an empty gesture aimed at appeasing the international community” and urged countries not to be taken in by such a move. He appeared to rule out some kind of hybrid government like the one that existed in Myanmar prior to the coup – with a partial democracy but the military retaining significant political power.
“The military has no place in our politics,” Mr. Lashi La said. “It must be made permanently subservient to a civilian government. Now is where the dictatorship ends.”
Western countries, which have imposed sanctions on the military, have already said they will not recognize the results of any election run by the junta, but a nominal shift to civilian rule may be a more successful gambit with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which has barred Myanmar from official participation since the coup.
Mr. Horsey said the West has largely delegated the situation in Myanmar to ASEAN, which “you don’t do if you expect it to be fixed.” This week, at a meeting of the bloc’s foreign affairs ministers, they reiterated a call for peace and said there should be a “Myanmar-owned and led solution” to the crisis.
Saleumxay Kommasith, foreign minister of Laos, shakes hands with Myanmar permanent secretary Marlar Than Htaik at an ASEAN retreat in Luang Prabang, on Jan. 29.TANG CHHIN SOTHY/AFP via Getty Images
Saleumxay Kommasith, the Foreign Affairs Minister of current ASEAN chair Laos, said he was “a little bit optimistic” that the junta had sent a non-official representative to the meeting after boycotting previous summits.
“Engagement may work, although we have to admit that the issues that are happening in Myanmar will not resolve overnight,” Mr. Saleumxay told reporters. “I think there is probably a small light at the end of the tunnel.”
In Wednesday’s joint declaration, the NUG and its allies said “our commitment to peaceful coexistence with neighbours shall stand as a cornerstone for regional peace and stability.” They also pledged to “engage constructively” with ASEAN “in seeking viable solutions for Myanmar.”
Students in Myanmar's capital wave flags ahead of a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2020, a year before the coup.Ann Wang/Reuters
China is perhaps the most important outside player in Myanmar. Beijing’s frustration with the junta’s unwillingness or inability to crack down on scam call centres operating near the Chinese border may have emboldened ethnic armies with ties to China to launch recent offensives.
Since October, the junta has been attempting to repair relations with Beijing, and on Tuesday China’s Ministry of Public Security said Myanmar had handed over 10 “major criminal suspects,” adding to the more than 44,000 scammers deported from Myanmar to China since 2023.
Su Hao, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University, said the scam call centres are Beijing’s “first priority” in its bilateral relations with Myanmar. “This is an issue that affects China’s interests and stability.”
But like most analysts, Prof. Su was skeptical of any imminent end to the fighting, pointing to the large political gulf between the various parties.
With reports from Reuters, Associated Press and Alexandra Li
Civil war in Myanmar: More from The Globe and Mail
Photojournalist Siegfried Modola has been to Myanmar several times for The Globe and Mail, following some of the battles that resistance forces are fighting, with increasing success, against a military junta. He spoke with The Decibel about the conflict's toll on people in the South Asian nation. Subscribe for more episodes.