Hispanic Americans have been among Democrats’ most reliable voters. But as midterms loom, there are signs of change

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Down in the southern reaches of Texas, in a neighbourhood so close to the border that its streets regularly filled with cars bearing Mexican licence plates, Debbie Garza lived in a political safe space for the country’s left.

Her home in the Rio Grande Valley was long a stronghold of Democrats in a deeply Republican state. Texas’s 15th Congressional district, where she votes, was one of the first Hispanic-majority districts in the U.S. and has not once elected a Republican representative since its formation 102 years ago.

But when then-president Donald Trump landed at the nearby McAllen airport in 2019, she gathered at the airport with other cheering supporters, waving signs: “We love you,” one read.

“He’s just phenomenal,” Ms. Garza said.

Hispanic Americans have been among the most reliable votes for Democrats. But as key November midterm elections loom, there are signs of change in a key Hispanic area of the country that may spell trouble for the Joe Biden White House.

Ms. Garza’s grandparents always voted Democrat. So did her parents. Her children do, too – and so did she for a time. In 2012, she marked a ballot for Barack Obama, like 71 per cent of Hispanics.

“We were considered poor, and the Democrats were great because they take care of you,” she recalled.

But age and wealth have shifted her perspective. She built up a retirement nest egg working as a health care administrator and watched it swell in the stock-market rally during Mr. Trump’s presidency: “Everything was great,” she said.

Now, with markets sinking, that nest egg has “been cut in half,” Ms. Garza described. She looks with suspicion, too, to the southern border that is a short drive from her house. For decades, most of the people who crossed the Rio Grande were Mexicans, like some of her own ancestors. Last year, nearly two-thirds of undocumented immigrants came from other countries. Conservative media have called it a “crisis” at the border. She faults Mr. Biden, who entered office promising a warmer reception at the border.

“The Democrats don’t seem to care what’s going on down here.”

Ms. Garza now advocates for Republicans with the fervour of a new convert. She runs a local Facebook group that trades in information – and, occasionally, misinformation – about the ills of the Biden administration and the hardships of life with high inflation. The group now has 9,300 members, and Ms. Garza is preparing for success at the polls.

National tracking firms such as the Cook Political Report say Texas’s 15th district now leans Republican. The neighbouring 34th district voted in Republican Mayra Flores in a June special election. McAllen, the largest city in the 15th district, last year elected as mayor Javier Villalobos, who had previously chaired the local Republican Party.

Local Democrat leaders question the significance of each of these shifts. The 15th district was, they say, gerrymandered to ensure Republican victory. Ms. Flores won the special election with just 7 per cent of registered voters casting ballots. And mayoral races are, officially, non-partisan.

If Hispanics are indeed flocking to the Republican Party, asked Gilberto Hinojosa, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, then why is it “so intent on passing voter suppression laws in the state of Texas that primarily discourage Hispanic voters to vote?”

But the Hispanic communities of southern Texas have been a major prize for Republicans. The party is investing heavily in ads, with Republican candidate Monica De La Cruz outspending Democrat rival Michelle Vallejo by a factor of nearly three in the 15th district.

Surveys by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, or NALEO, Education Fund in recent weeks have found that the economy and inflation – issues that typically favour Republicans – are the top concern for half of Latino voters. Four years ago, 37 per cent of Latinos described the Republican party as hostile. Today, only a quarter feel that way, the poll found.

While more than half of decided voters said they expected to vote Democrat in November, the NALEO poll found, that number is 16 points lower than four years ago.

“Republicans have gained significant ground with Latino voters,” said Arturo Vargas, chief executive of the NALEO Educational Fund, which promotes Hispanic political participation, in a statement.

Republicans, nonetheless, see reason for optimism. Many see the Hispanic community, with its higher rates of religious adherence and social conservatism, as a natural fit.

“I don’t think the Democratic Party down here even understands what has hit them,” said Roman Pérez, a political commentator and adjunct faculty at Wayland Baptist University who is vice-chair of the Cameron County Republican Party.

Elsewhere in the U.S., Democrats have won support by campaigning on abortion after Republican-nominated judges to the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision earlier this year. That message has seen less success among Hispanic voters, who have historically tended to favour making abortion illegal. In border areas, meanwhile, local communities have grown more receptive to the harder positions on immigration espoused by Republicans.

“Hispanics are basically conservative people. We really are,” said Hilda Garza DeShazo, secretary of the Hidalgo County Republican Party, which is based in McAllen. People along the Rio Grande “do not align with the wild-eyed liberals of the northeast.”

Yet Republican extremes have also caused alarm. Navy veteran Jose Garza lives a short drive from the bridge to Mexico with his family. Each of his three young daughters has disabilities.

“If they get impregnated by, God not willing, a teacher, another student or something else – you’re going to make them, at their age, have a kid?” he asked.

He also questions the militarization of the border, with its steel fences watched by uniformed troops in Humvees. As a child, he recalls swimming across the Rio Grande to enjoy time with relatives from Mexico.

“It was better before, because there was a little tolerance.”

Local Democrat organizers believe longstanding loyalties will ultimately hold.

“Let’s talk about making sure our children have access to good education, and we have access to health care,” said Kassandra Elejarza, who chairs Texas Democratic Women. She accuses the Republicans of bringing on Hispanic candidates as “political cover for their racist, far-right, extremist immigration policies.”

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has been a leader in busing undocumented immigrants to other states. But in a sign of shifting times, that project has created only modest anger. A Texas poll in late September found nearly even support and opposition for it among Hispanics and Latinos.

“The fact is is that when you have millions of immigrants taxing the local infrastructure, you need to send them to other places,” said John Villarreal Rigney, a lawyer and property developer who sought, but lost, the Democrat nomination for the Congressional race in the 15th district.

Mr. Rigney is now openly critical of the party, saying he cannot understand the “defund police” agenda espoused by some liberals and will not commit to voting Democrat himself in coming elections.

“We like hunting, we like fishing, we like the outdoors. We like our guns,” he said, referring to South Texas residents.

“So if you truly look at the values that entail a South Texas Democrat, they’re very Republican.”