Ko Wen-je, presidential candidate of Taiwan People's Party (TPP), speaks during a press conference ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections, in Taipei, Taiwan January 12, 2024.CARLOS GARCIA RAWLINS/Reuters
If Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party fails to win a third term in Saturday’s presidential election, it will be due in large part to one man. A former medical professor known for his gaffes and combative political style, Ko Wen-je has led his Taiwan People’s Party to a historic level of support, establishing it as a genuine third force in the island’s politics and threatening both the DPP and opposition Kuomintang.
“The people of Taiwan have grown tired of the incessant blue-green political strife,” Mr. Ko said Friday, referring to the colours associated with the KMT and DPP respectively. “They only look after the interests of their parties and ignore the rights and interests of the people. This political status quo has led to an increasing wave of people hoping for reform.”
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen raises the arm of her vice-president, Lai Ching-te, at a rally in Taipei on Thursday, January 11, 2024. Mr. Lai is running to succeed Ms. Tsai in Taiwan's presidential election on Saturday.james griffiths/The Globe and Mail
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice-president, has struggled to recapture the energy that surrounded incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, who was elected with strong majorities in 2016 and 2020. He has hovered around 35 per cent in the polls, enough for victory with the opposition vote split, but also close enough for a potential upset, particularly if Mr. Ko wins over enough traditional DPP supporters.
Mr. Ko was once aligned with the DPP, endorsed by the party when he mounted a successful independent campaign to become Taipei’s mayor in 2014. But he has since become a fierce critic, accusing the incumbent government of being corrupt and failing to deliver on promises.
On domestic issues, which have dominated the election along with longstanding concerns over China – which claims Taiwan as its territory and has threatened to invade – Mr. Ko has attacked the DPP from the left, promising to do more to share the benefits of Taiwan’s economic growth, build more housing and increase wages for young people struggling to cope with inflation.
When it comes to foreign policy however, Mr. Ko has often sounded more like the conservative KMT, which supports eventual unification with mainland China and is typically more conciliatory toward Beijing. As Taipei mayor, Mr. Ko led delegations to Shanghai, and said both sides of the Taiwan Strait “are one family,” language some saw as echoing that of the Chinese government.
But he has also refused to endorse Beijing’s prerequisite for cross-Strait interaction: an acknowledgement there is only “one China” that both Taiwan and the mainland are part of. Mr. Ko has said the so-called 1992 consensus is a non-starter in Taiwan and a new formulation is needed.
Speaking to reporters on the eve of the election, Mr. Ko said “the relationship between Taiwan and China boils down to two words: deterrence and communication.”
“No one bases the security of their country on the goodwill of others,” he said, adding that Taiwan’s security cannot be trusted to Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the island needs “our own capacity for self-protection.”
The issue of China, which has taken a backseat in much of the campaign, has returned to the fore after recent comments by former KMT president Ma Ying-jeou, who said in an interview that Taiwan could “never win” in a war with China.
“No matter how much you defend yourself, you can never fight a war with the mainland,” he told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle. “They are too large, too much stronger than us.”
In the same interview, Mr. Ma was asked whether Mr. Xi could be trusted, and replied “as far as cross-Strait relations, you have to.”
Supporters wave banners at a rally for the Democratic Progressive Party in central Taipei, Taiwan, on January 11, 2024.james griffiths
Those comments were quickly seized upon by the DPP, with speaker after speaker at a rally in central Taipei Thursday asking the crowd if they trusted either Xi or Ma, to a resounding “no.”
Mr. Ma, who led Taiwan from 2008-2016, was reportedly not invited to the KMT’s final rally Friday, an apparent snub that shows how much his remarks may have damaged candidate Hou Yu-ih’s attempts to present a moderate approach on cross-Strait issues. On Thursday, Mr. Hou said if elected he would not touch on “the unification issue.”
China sent a tough message to voters on the island Friday, with Defence Ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang saying the People’s Liberation Army would “smash” any movement toward Taiwan independence.
Tom Chou, general secretary of the TPP, told The Globe and Mail voters were tired of the “politics of hate” pushed by both the KMT and DPP, who regularly scaremonger about how the other will handle relations with China.
Outside powers too, may be ready for a third approach, Mr. Ko said Friday, describing himself as “the only person who is acceptable to both China and the U.S.”
Whether enough voters agree remains to be seen, but what is clear is that Mr. Ko has exposed a deep dissatisfaction with politics as normal in Taiwan, especially among younger people.
Supporters wave flags at a rally for the Democratic Progressive Party in central Taipei, Taiwan, on January 11, 2024.james griffiths
The DPP was once the party of the youth, attracting support not only for its approach to China but also progressive achievements like becoming the first government in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage. But at the party’s final Taipei rally Thursday, the crowd was notably older than in the past, and the energy felt lacking, with Mr. Xi’s name coming up far more than that of either Mr. Lai or Ms. Tsai.
Introducing her putative successor at the rally, Ms. Tsai seemed to acknowledge the threat the DPP was facing from Mr. Ko, saying she understood a lot of young people wanted change.
“But just like driving a car, you would not want some novice in control of the steering wheel when you are on a road that is complicated, narrow and twisting,” she said, before listing DPP achievements such as increasing wages, cutting taxes and improving access to housing.
Mr. Lai said if voters “think that during the past eight years we performed well,” then they should back the DPP, promising to “be even better.” But well before he was finished speaking, many supporters were already headed for the exits.
With files from Reuters