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Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), party leader of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, speaks at an election campaign event in Cottbus. The election for the Brandenburg state parliament will take place on September 22, 2024.Frank Hammerschmidt/Reuters

From a stage in Brandenburg an der Havel, an hour outside Berlin, Sahra Wagenknecht pauses for a moment, 20 minutes into her speech. The former communist and rising political leader looks out at a crowd of hundreds in the former East German city.

So far, she has already hit on her campaign-trail stalwarts: the rising cost of living for the middle class, the condescension of Berlin’s federal politicians in their “oat-milk macchiato” bubbles, and her view that Germany has been misled by “woke” ideology. But now she turns to the clincher: war and peace.

“As a teenager growing up in the eighties, I remember a time when we were all – or at least I was – afraid of nuclear war,” she says, her voice echoing off the low-lying buildings surrounding the square. “Now, the Iron Curtain is being raised again, and a new arms race is being set in motion. What kind of madness is that?”

It’s what many in the audience came to hear. The crowd erupts.

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Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) co-chairwoman Sahra Wagenknecht reacts to the first projections at the party election reception on September 1, 2024 in Erfurt, Germany.Pool/Getty Images

Anxieties about the economic costs of Germany’s role in the war in Ukraine are keenly felt in this town. Ms. Wagenknecht, as leader of a federal party she created just eight months ago, knows this well.

Her “war and peace” message helped vault her party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW, according to its German initials), to strong third-place finishes in Germany’s two state elections earlier this month, surpassing the three parties that form Germany’s federal ruling coalition. Polls suggest a strong finish here in Brandenburg, too, on Sept. 22.

But the threat of war is not the only thing attracting voters. Ms. Wagenknecht’s party is rooted in leftist economic politics, but has hit a nerve by also tapping into concerns that had previously been the near-exclusive province of the country’s resurgent far right. Those include the anti-immigrant and anti-elite sentiment strong in these ex-socialist eastern German states, as well as the feeling of being an economic underdog more than three decades after reunification with Germany’s west.

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Already, the party has garnered enough support to become king-maker in two states that just held elections. In both Thuringia and Saxony, the other parties need BSW as a coalition partner in order to shut out the far-right Alternative for Germany (or AfD), considered an extremist group by the country’s security watchdog.

AfD’s rise has made right-wing nationalism a significant force in German politics for the first time since the end of the Second World War. With the country’s fractured mainstream parties now looking for ways of countering that rise ahead of next year’s federal election, BSW represents a possible way forward, but one with its own set of potential problems.

BSW is polling nationally at around 10 per cent, and Ms. Wagenknecht seems eager to take the country’s ruling powers down.

“Those of us who still remember the end times of the German Democratic Republic have a bit of déjà vu,” Ms. Wagenknecht said to the crowd earlier his week, referencing the chaotic time before reunification. “It’s not the old GDR, but it feels like those who govern don’t have it under control any more.”

Left-right fusion

Unlike many of Germany’s top politicians – most older and male – Ms. Wagenknecht stands out: charismatic, confident and elegant, with a wardrobe of structured jackets and pumps, her hair typically pulled back into a chignon. It’s a look that Germans have come to know well through her frequent media appearances.

Ms. Wagenknecht, 55, was born in East Germany to a German mother and an Iranian father, and grew up in small-town Thuringia. She entered political life when, at 19, she joined the communist Socialist Unity Party, the ruling party of the GDR, months before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

She remained active in socialist politics after reunification, and rose through the ranks of Germany’s Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS). She entered the European Parliament in 2004, making her one of the most prominent figures on the country’s political left, and was elected as a member of the Bundestag, Germany’s national parliament, in 2009. She has held the post ever since.

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In 2007, the PDS merged with another party to form Die Linke (The Left). In 2013, it became Germany’s leading federal opposition party, and two years later, Ms. Wagenknecht became its co-leader. The party was surpassed by other opposition parties in 2017.

But over the years, her views increasingly splintered from those of Die Linke. She was critical of Germany’s response to the 2015 migrant crisis, its COVID-19 lockdowns and its funding and military support for Ukraine. She objected to what she saw as her party’s focus on identity politics.

In January, 2024, she started a new party, in her own name. To some observers, the move seemed like a natural one.

“She’s a professional, experienced and very strategic politician who is very straight in her goals. She knows what she wants,” said Antonios Souris, a political-science professor at the Freie Universität Berlin.

Some of Ms. Wagenknecht’s policies seem as though they were pulled straight from the toolbox of conservative populism.

But BSW’s rhetoric is tempered with ideas from the left: the party supports more-generous social benefits, higher minimum wages and richer pensions. It aims to tax the rich, increase wages for teachers and protect workers by strengthening collective bargaining. “Left conservatism” is among the oxymoronic terms used to describe Ms. Wagenknecht’s ideology.

Ms. Wagenknecht has said that she condemns Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but also wants to resume oil and gas purchases from Russia. She insists that Germany’s decision to shut down those purchases is primarily damaging Germany and Europe, rather than Moscow.

“When they tell us, ‘We do this to put pressure on Putin,’ I would have no objection – if it actually had the effect of ending the Ukraine war,” she told the audience in Brandenburg.

“But we have to face reality. Russia doesn’t need us as buyers for oil and gas. They have plenty of others who are happy to get cheap Russian raw materials.”

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During Ms. Wagenknecht’s speech, resident Nance Möwe was among many in attendance who said ending the war in Ukraine through diplomacy was a top priority. She strongly opposed plans to station American medium-range missiles in Germany.

“BSW is a voice for peace, which is so rarely found,” she said. “This woman is the only politician in Germany who clearly addresses these points.”

On migration, Ms. Wagenknecht often frames her perspectives in terms of support for German jobs and the welfare state, ideas usually associated with the political left. But her rhetoric has mirrored the messages of far-right parties. On Monday, she told journalists at Berlin’s parliament building that Islamist radicalization was growing in the country. She cited, without giving specifics, “11-year-olds already running around with knives.”

Among attendees in Brandenburg, concerns about the effects of migration were top of mind. “Everyone can come here as visitors. They can integrate if they want, that’s fine. But if someone doesn’t accept our way, they should go back,’ said Frank Müller, another resident.

Ms. Wagenknecht sees the country’s efforts to ban combustion engines from 2035 onward as “a nail in the coffin” for the car industry. Electric cars, she has noted, are still expensive, and infrastructure for charging them is not yet fully developed.

“Sure, the green bubble in Berlin’s inner-city districts can afford these cars, but many people across the country simply cannot,” she said in Brandenburg.

This left-right combination within a single party is not unique in Europe. Similar ideologies have found support in Eastern Europe and Scandinavian countries, where voters lean left on social supports and economic policy, but are farther right on traditional family values, as well as issues such as migration and Euroskepticism.

“Germany is not an exception, but is simply following other examples. And this is a new winning formula,” said Philip Manow, a politics professor at the University of Siegen.

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The leader of the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party Sahra Wagenknecht (C), party co-leader Amira Mohamed Ali (L) and their party's top candidates for regional elections, Saxony's Sabine Zimmermann (R) and Thuringia's Katja Wolf (L, behind Mohamed Ali) leave after giving a press conference in Berlin on September 2, 2024, a day after regional elections in the eastern federal states of Saxony and Thuringia.JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP/Getty Images

Power broker

Less than a year after its founding, BSW has attained the power to make or break state governments, twice.

In Germany, a party must win 50 per cent of the vote to form government, or put together a coalition with other parties to make up a majority. Minority governments can occur but are very rare.

Coalition negotiations after the recent state elections have not yet concluded. But political experts have projected that, by earning 15 per cent of the votes in Thuringia and 11 per cent in Saxony, BSW has made itself a crucial coalition partner if other leading parties hope not to work with AfD, which all have vowed they won’t do.

The situation exemplifies one of the most common critiques of the German electoral system: traditionally, small parties have had power hugely disproportionate to their numbers.

Speaking to journalists on Monday, Ms. Wagenknecht said BSW is open to coalition talks, but will not participate unless a coalition agreement includes foreign-policy commitments, which German states have no role in formulating. “If we can agree on that, then governments are possible, and if not, then not,” she told reporters.

This has left experts wondering how the other parties could satisfy Ms. Wagenknecht’s demands. Any agreements would likely be symbolic, said Reimut Zohlnhöfer, a political scientist at Heidelberg University. But they would send an important message ahead of next year’s federal election.

The success of parties such as AfD and BSW could force Germany’s mainstream parties to shift their policies to the right, said Randall Hansen, a professor of European politics at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.

Already, the German federal government has changed its official positions on migration, and on the war in Ukraine.

In its draft budget published in July, the government said it would halve its spending on Ukraine next year, to €4-billion from €8-billion this year, despite concerns that a Trump presidency in the U.S. would mean significantly diminished support from across the Atlantic.

This week, the federal government said it would significantly toughen border controls after a deadly knife attack in August, allegedly perpetrated by a Syrian man being sought for deportation.

“The mainstream parties will feel the need to tip their sails a bit to catch the East German wind,” Prof. Hansen said.

Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Brandenburg an der Havel is a former capital city. This version has been updated.

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