A Somali soldier controls the crowd as thousands of people attend a protest rally in Mogadishu, Somalia, Jan. 3, after being angry with an agreement signed between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland to give landlocked Ethiopia access to its shoreline.Farah Abdi Warsameh/The Associated Press
An exchange of threats by Egypt and Ethiopia, following a weapons shipment and a reported troop deployment by Cairo in nearby Somalia, is sparking fears of war between two of Africa’s most populous countries.
Ethiopia and Egypt have been feuding for years after failing to resolve their dispute over an Ethiopian dam on the Nile River. But their conflict has escalated in recent days as Egypt forges closer military links with Ethiopia’s neighbour, Somalia.
Egypt sent a shipment of guns and ammunition to Somalia last week, and it plans to deploy 10,000 troops in Somalia by the end of this year under a new agreement to fight the Islamist militia al-Shabab in the country, according to Somali media outlets. Hundreds of Egyptian commandoes have already arrived in Somalia, a newspaper in the United Arab Emirates reported.
The deployment, which would replace Ethiopian troops in an African peacekeeping force in Somalia, would be Egypt’s biggest foreign military mission in decades. It threatens to push Ethiopia out of its traditional role as the Western proxy and guardian of stability in the Horn of Africa – a role already jeopardized by several regional wars in Ethiopia in recent years.
Ethiopia’s foreign ministry responded to the Egypt-Somalia deal by warning that Ethiopia “cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilize the region.” It vowed there would be “grave ramifications” for “forces trying to inflame tensions.”
Egypt has said little officially about its Somalia deployment, but it has issued its own threats against Ethiopia.
In a letter to the United Nations Security Council this weekend, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said his country was “prepared to take all measures” to defend its interests in the dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile River dam.
He voiced frustration at the protracted negotiations that have failed to end the dispute after 13 years. The latest construction at the dam is “a continuation of Ethiopia’s provocative approach towards its neighbours” and “threatens the stability of the region,” he said in the letter.
If a conflict erupts between the two countries, the likely battlefront is Somalia, which has turned to Egypt for military support after furiously denouncing Ethiopia for its agreement with Somalia’s breakaway region, Somaliland, earlier this year.
Ethiopia is landlocked and has made it a priority to gain a naval base on the Red Sea. Under the controversial deal, it would provide diplomatic recognition of Somaliland’s independence in exchange for access to a seaport in the breakaway region, which Somalia considers to be part of its territory.
This weekend, Somalia’s state television channel SNTV began broadcasting martial songs and posting messages that explicitly recalled a 1977 war in which Somalia invaded Ethiopia and fought its army for eight months.
“A throwback to 1977 as our National Armed Forces stand ready to protect and defend our country’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity,” SNTV said in a social-media post on Sunday. The post featured a video of marching Somali soldiers in 1977 and martial songs from the era.
The television channel also urged the Somali people to “respond to the unattainable ambitions of external forces” – another clear reference to Ethiopia.
Some analysts recalled the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006, when its forces entered the country to depose an Islamic government in the capital, Mogadishu. A similar scenario is possible again now, some said.
Ethiopia still has several thousand troops in Somalia under various security agreements and peacekeeping missions, but the Somali government has said that Ethiopia must withdraw those troops.
Somalia’s decision to allow Egyptian troops on its territory is widely seen as a sign of the growing anti-Ethiopian mood in both countries. The African Union will face a tough challenge “to prevent war over the Nile,” according to Martin Kimani, a former Kenyan ambassador to the UN, in a social-media post on Sunday.
Egypt sees the Ethiopian dam on the Nile River as an existential threat to its water supply, but Ethiopia is determined to complete the dam to bolster its much-needed electricity-generating capacity.
Egyptian journalist and political analyst Khaled Mahmoud, speaking on Al Arabiya television, said Cairo is considering “all options” in its dealings with Ethiopia.
“The transition from diplomatic to military tools could mean that Egypt might be forced to resort to military action due to Ethiopia’s intransigence,” he said in a social-media message on Monday.
“Egypt’s message to the UN Security Council reflects a shift from a strategy of containing Ethiopia to a phase of applying pressure before moving to deterrence. This is a strongly worded message aimed at conveying to the international community that the time has come to end the fruitless negotiations that have lasted for 13 years. Otherwise, Cairo will be compelled to protect its interests in the way it deems necessary.”