Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 16, 2022.Sergei Bobylev/The Associated Press
A week after he was sworn-in for a record-breaking fifth term as president, Vladimir Putin is travelling to China to visit another leader who seems poised to rule for life, Xi Jinping, as both men continue to face down Western pressure to end their “no limits” partnership struck ahead of the war in Ukraine.
Mr. Putin’s two-day visit – which begins on Thursday – comes amid a major Russian military advance in Ukraine, global turmoil over the conflict in Gaza and tough new U.S. tariffs against Chinese electric vehicles and other imports to which Beijing has vowed to respond with “all necessary actions.”
“It is a continuation of a long-term trend, another step towards a greater consolidation of the China-Russia strategic alignment,” said Alexander Korolev, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. “Putin’s visit is a demonstration to the rest of the world that Russia is not alone despite all the sanctions, that China is ready to stand by it and continue economic co-operation.”
Last year, bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record US$240-billion. Russia is now China’s largest supplier of oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia, while China is a key provider of technology such as telecoms equipment and microprocessors, as well as controversial “dual-use” components – non-lethal technologies that can nevertheless be used for military purposes – that Western governments say have made their way onto the battlefield in Ukraine.
During a visit to Europe earlier this month, Mr. Xi got an earful from top officials about this issue, with the EU threatening to follow the U.S. in sanctioning Chinese companies providing dual-use components to Russia.
Those measures – and the threat of further sanctions – do seem to have had an effect, with Chinese exports to Russia down 13.5 per cent in April compared to the year before. But Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, said Mr. Putin’s visit will provide an ideal “opportunity to brainstorm” ways to bypass restrictions on Chinese exports and Russia’s use of the Chinese financial system.
Mr. Putin “is expected to be accompanied by an experienced team from the central bank and finance ministry who are responsible for the Kremlin’s drive to de-dollarise the Russian financial system since 2014,” Ms. Prokopenko wrote this week. “Their bold moves enabled the country to withstand the initial shock of sanctions and then rapidly switch its financial system from dependency on the dollar and euro to dependency on the renminbi.”
RMB deposits in Russia reached US$68.7-billion in 2023, exceeding USD holdings, and the currency now accounts for more than a third of Russia’s trade with foreign partners, “from practically zero before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” Ms. Prokopenko said.
Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of the China-Russia Report newsletter, said Mr. Putin will be seeking to bolster Chinese exports to Russia in the wake of the new sanctions.
There are ways for trade to bypass these measures, such as through “the creation of shell companies, or shipment via third countries, such as Kyrgyzstan,” he told The Globe and Mail.
“Given Beijing’s continued pro-Russia neutrality throughout the conflict, the two sides will likely find a way to resume China-to-Russia shipments,” Mr. Webster added, as these have provided “critical material support to the Kremlin’s war economy.”
Mr. Korolev said it was notable that as well as visiting Beijing, Mr. Putin will also head to Harbin, capital of Heilongjiang, a province in China’s northeast, on the border with Russia.
Both sides have long talked about greater economic co-operation in that region, and that it is included in Mr. Putin’s itinerary “might be an indication that finally this strategy of joint development of Russia’s far-east and northeastern China is gaining some practical aspects,” Mr. Korolev said.
He added that with U.S. President Joe Biden retaining tariffs on China imposed during the Donald Trump administration, and adding new ones such as the electric vehicle measures this week – as well as threats the EU could follow suit – Beijing too will be looking for greater economic co-operation with Russia as it attempts to counterbalance reliance on the West.
Mr. Trump has said he will impose even tougher tariffs if he is re-elected in November, but Mr. Korolev said China likely didn’t see too much of a difference between the two men.
“I think in Beijing there is an understanding that the rivalry between China and the United States is a structural tendency,” he said. “It doesn’t fully depend on who runs the show, whether Biden or Trump or whoever.”
While in Europe this month, Mr. Xi visited two of the continent’s outliers, Hungary and Serbia, both of which have maintained relations with Moscow despite the war in Ukraine. China has also increased trade with other countries antagonistic to the U.S., including North Korea, Iran and Venezuela.
Mr. Xi has presented China – the second-largest economy on the planet – as a leader of the developing world, protecting the interests of smaller countries against Western hegemony. He has advanced a new vision of international relations, via initiatives on “global security” and “global civilization” that seeks to rewrite the post-Second World War order dominated by the U.S. and establish a more stridently anti-interventionist role for the international community and bodies such as the United Nations.
Both China and Russia have supported the expansion of BRICS, which last year agreed to add Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates, along with other alternative multilateral forums such as the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which focuses on defence. (Argentina withdrew its candidacy in December.)
During a visit to China last month to set the groundwork for Mr. Putin, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Beijing and Moscow had also begun discussions on expanding security co-operation in Europe and Asia, to counter what he said were attempts by the United States to impose its will on the region.
In an interview with Chinese state news agency Xinhua ahead of his visit this week, Mr. Putin said the West had “usurped the right to tell other nations whom they may, or must not, make friends and co-operate with, and to deny them the right to choose their own development models.”
“Needless to say, neither Russia nor its partners are happy with this state of affairs,” Mr. Putin said. “We have actively contributed to launching multilateral associations and mechanisms that are independent of the West and are successfully operating.”
China was a key ally in this effort, he added, describing the relationship between the two countries as having reached an “unprecedented level of strategic partnership.”
This article has been updated to clarify that, following the expansion announcement last year, Argentina withdrew its candidacy in December.