Myanmar faces renewed exodus as military seeks to conscript thousands

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There was a time, after a 2021 military coup plunged Myanmar into civil war, that Yangon returned to relative normality. The mass protests had been brutally suppressed, the exodus of young people and foreigners slowed to a trickle, the international sanctions were absorbed by a shrunken and weakened economy, and life in Myanmar’s largest city went on. The war raged in the countryside, but it felt a long way away.

That reality was brutally shattered this month, when the junta, after months of military setbacks, passed a new conscription law that will come into force in April, when 60,000 young men and women will be recruited in waves of 5,000 at a time.

“It’s shaken the whole country, even upper class families,” said a Yangon education worker. The Globe and Mail is not naming him or other civilians interviewed for this report because of fears for their safety.

He said his social media feeds and group chats had been filled with discussion of the conscription law since it was first announced, with people sharing tips on how to leave the country, or debating how large a bribe might be required to dodge the draft.

A new exodus is already under way. More than 1,000 people lined up at the Thai embassy in Yangon on Friday, some sleeping on the streets overnight to secure a visa. Others have fled for the countryside, hoping to cross the border by foot or seek shelter with the many rebel groups fighting the junta.

A Yangon businessman interviewed by the Globe said there was panic among his friends, with those that could afford it doing everything they can to get their children out of the country, such as sending them to study overseas.

“They are from wealthy families. What about people from poor communities? They don’t have the money to escape, they are just worried and waiting,” he said. “My staff said they would join the revolutionary forces instead.”

In a statement, the opposition National Unity Government said the conscription push was “unlawful.” It urged the public to defy the draft, which the NUG said was indicative of the military’s desperation, “having suffered significant and humiliating defeats across the country.”

Rebel groups have been on the advance since October, when a surprise offensive in northern Shan State sparked intensified fighting across the country, forcing junta forces to retreat from many border areas and leaving the military government cut off from key trade links and allies.

Speaking to state broadcaster MRTV last week, military spokesman Major-General Zaw Min Tun said “the responsibility of national defence is not only the responsibility of the soldier.”

“National security is everyone’s responsibility,” he said. “That is why I would like to tell everyone to serve with pride under the enacted law of people’s military service.”

More fighting is on the way. On the third anniversary of the coup this month, the NUG and three allied ethnic militias published a joint declaration calling for the “annihilation of the military dictatorship and establishment of a federal democratic union” and vowing more assaults if the junta will not talk surrender.

A document shared with The Globe by a representative of one of those militias, the Karen National Union, calls for the targeting of junta air force bases, which have been “a major obstacle to the revolution.” The military has bombarded towns and cities lost in recent fighting, and hit rebel camps in the jungle, often with little consideration for civilian casualties, human rights groups say.

KNU officer Hay Win said the draft announcement has emboldened rebel groups, who see it as evidence their advances are shaking the military. He added there has been an uptick in urban residents fleeing to border areas in the past week.

“People are suffering and living in panic, especially the younger generation,” Hay Win said.

Many cannot escape, however. Some do not have valid passports, and fear applying may make them a target for conscription, while tight controls on internal travel make it difficult to cross into rebel-held areas, where the fighting is intense.

“If you’re from an area where travel is already restricted, how can you bypass the armed conflict and get to Yangon and get a passport?” the education worker said. “It’s next to impossible.”

His work regularly takes him to Thailand, where there are an estimated two million Burmese migrants living in various degrees of legality, some long established, others having fled since the coup. He said there was concern in Mae Sot, the closest major Thai city to the border, that another wave of refugees will overwhelm an economy already struggling, further driving down wages and increasing the cost of bribing Thai police to look the other way.

A European businessperson in Yangon said many of their younger employees had already resigned since the draft announcement, while others were openly considering doing so. The Globe is not identifying this person in order to protect them from potential reprisals.

Many were hesitating, they said, not because they don’t want to leave, but that they fear not being able to support themselves if they do, with little prospect for employment in Thailand and considerable difficulty making it to another country.

They said those who remain in Yangon are gambling they will not be in the first wave of recruits, or that they will be able to pay a bribe to avoid conscription. Another longtime Western observer based in Myanmar suggested this could be a secondary reason for the draft, providing another source of funds for the increasingly stretched military budget.

Obvious corruption could backfire, however. There are already rumblings of dissatisfaction within the military following recent battlefield setbacks, which could be exacerbated if wealthy families buy their way out of fighting.

Rebel forces say thousands of soldiers have defected or surrendered since October. Such numbers cannot be independently confirmed, but Myanmar Witness, a Western-funded NGO which uses open-source information to document the conflict, said it has tracked five mass surrenders and weapon seizures in recent months, which were likely just “the tip of the iceberg of the military’s losses.”

Defectors have spoken of a culture of fear and paranoia within the military, with those caught trying to flee being beaten or tortured.

Conscripts may face similar treatment. While the military has said it will train draftees, observers doubt many will be trusted to carry weapons and the expectation is most will be used as porters, hauling equipment and supplies to the frontlines.

Such work can be brutal and deadly. For decades, human rights groups have documented abuses by the military against porters, many forcibly recruited in ethnic minority areas, tortured if they resist, and ordered to walk ahead of soldiers to set off mines and other traps.

According to the Karen Human Rights Group, during fighting last month in southern Mon State, junta forces “arrested any villagers they encountered on the way and in the villages to use them as human shields, while claiming to use them as navigators.”

Such testimonies speak to how forced recruitment has been taking place long before the recent conscription law, but without impacting the educated, wealthier urban population now seeking to flee the country.

And it is not just the military that is guilty. While ethnic militias and “people’s defence forces” allied with the NUG can fill their ranks with volunteers, other armed groups have been accused of snatching people off the streets, or using conscription as a punishment for minor offences such as drug possession.