A fighter of the ethnic rebel group Ta'ang National Liberation Army walks past a police station in the town of Namhkam, in northern Shan state, Myanmar, on Nov. 9.MAI NYI/AFP/Getty Images
For much of the time since Myanmar was plunged into civil war by a military coup in February, 2021, the conflict has been in a bloody stalemate. Rebel forces hold large swaths of the country, but have proven unable to shift the junta’s control over the major cities and much of the interior.
But in recent weeks there has been a transformation, after three northern ethnic armies that had been sitting out the conflict launched a devastating surprise offensive, overrunning junta positions and seizing weapons, equipment and, most importantly, border posts along the frontier with Myanmar’s major ally and trading partner, China.
“The pace of developments has been extraordinary,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who oversees the Myanmar Conflict Map, an online data platform. “This offensive keeps moving, they keep taking more towns.”
The United States Institute of Peace, a Washington-based think tank, estimates the Brotherhood Alliance – as the three ethnic armies are called – has taken control of more than 100 military outposts across northern Shan state in central Myanmar. The so-called 10.27 offensive, named for the date on which it was launched, has disrupted as much as 40 per cent of cross-border trade, a vital source of tax revenue for the junta.
The junta appears to be rattled: Myint Swe, a former general who is now Myanmar’s military-appointed president, warned that the country could break apart if the offensive cannot be stopped. The government has imposed martial law on parts of Shan, the largest state in Myanmar, and junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has said the military will do anything it takes to “counter these acts of terror.”
Beyond Shan state, the military’s rout there has inspired new offensives across the country, by ethnic militias and People’s Defence Forces, or PDFs, linked to the parallel National Unity Government, formed by members of the deposed administration. In a statement after the Oct. 27 offensive, the NUG said, “the moment has arrived for all ethnic revolutionary organizations, the forces of the Spring Revolution, and the people to fully engage in the elimination of the military dictatorship and wholeheartedly commit to the establishment of a Federal Democratic Union.”
“Military operations around the country are interconnected,” NUG defence minister U Yee Mon said, adding that revolutionary forces were engaged in a “whole country strategy.”
Opposition unites against Myanmar junta
Unprecedented co-operation between the shadow National Unity
Government of pro-democracy politicians and ethnic armed groups
is posing the biggest threat yet to the military dictatorship
Area of armed clashes
(Region in bold)
BANGLADESH
CHINA
Sagaing
INDIA
Chin
Shan
Mandalay
MYANMAR
LAOS
Rakhine
Naypyitaw
Chiang Mai
Chiang Mai
Kayah
Yangon
THAILAND
Kayin
Bay of Bengal
Mon
Bangkok
graphic news, Source: UNOCHA; Reuters
Opposition unites against Myanmar junta
Unprecedented co-operation between the shadow National Unity
Government of pro-democracy politicians and ethnic armed groups
is posing the biggest threat yet to the military dictatorship
Area of armed clashes
(Region in bold)
BANGLADESH
CHINA
Sagaing
INDIA
Chin
Shan
Mandalay
MYANMAR
LAOS
Rakhine
Naypyitaw
Chiang Mai
Chiang Mai
Kayah
Yangon
THAILAND
Kayin
Bay of Bengal
Mon
Bangkok
graphic news, Source: UNOCHA; Reuters
Opposition unites against Myanmar junta
Unprecedented co-operation between the shadow National Unity Government of pro-democracy
politicians and ethnic armed groups is posing the biggest threat yet to the military dictatorship
Area of armed clashes
(Region in bold)
CHINA
BANGLADESH
Sagaing
INDIA
Shan
Chin
Mandalay
MYANMAR
LAOS
Rakhine
Naypyitaw
Chiang Mai
Chiang Mai
Kayah
Bay of Bengal
Yangon
THAILAND
Kayin
Mon
Bangkok
graphic news, Source: UNOCHA; Reuters
While the NUG and anti-junta forces have been pushing for just such an offensive since the coup, many ethnic groups that have fought successive Myanmar governments for autonomy or independence had avoided fighting the Tatmadaw, as Myanmar’s experienced, well-equipped and notoriously brutal military is known. Parts of Shan have long been essentially independent from government control, most notably territory held by the United Wa State Army, or UWSA, the largest and most professional ethnic military in the country, with some 20,000 troops.
So far, the UWSA is still maintaining neutrality, but the Brotherhood’s successful offensive seems to have inspired another ethnic militia, the Arakan Army, to break its ceasefire with the junta and strike positions in western Rakhine state.
An outbreak of full conflict in Rakhine would “open a significant new front for the regime, which is already overstretched,” said Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser with the International Crisis Group.
“Regime forces have considerable experience fighting the Arakan Army in Rakhine and have reportedly already shut down travel across the state,” he added. “But facing major difficulties in northern Shan state alongside attacks from anti-regime forces probing for military weaknesses elsewhere, it will be hard for the regime to focus their efforts across all fronts.”
While Mr. Michaels noted that the conflict was still very much in flux, he said the military government could find itself in serious jeopardy if it can’t stall the momentum of the fighting.
A Newly arrived Rohingya refugee walks to the beach after the local community decided to temporarily allow them to land for water and food in Ulee Madon, Aceh province, Indonesia.AMANDA JUFRIAN/AFP/Getty Images
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Key indicators to look out for, he said, are unit-level surrenders or desertions, as seen in Afghanistan during the Taliban’s advance, when demoralized government forces melted away rather than fight. So far, there has been no indication of this, and Mr. Michaels noted that while the Brotherhood Alliance has seized significant territory, it has done so largely because junta forces have retreated.
“These forces have regrouped and they’re still there,” he said. “And at this point, mostly it seems that the regime’s forces are still willing to fight.”
Another key factor will be China. All the groups involved in the Shan offensive are believed to have ties to Beijing, which has been frustrated with the Myanmar regime’s inability or refusal to tackle widespread scam call centres operating near the Chinese border. One of the first actions of the Brotherhood was to raid several of those and shut them down.
Mr. Michaels said the 10.27 offensive was probably intended to be relatively contained, focused largely on the regions where the call centres operate, “but as they pushed on the door and the door swung open the objectives likely began to expand as they realized they could basically steamroll over the whole area.”
Amid continuing disruption to cross-border trade and instability on its border, China may decide to intervene in order to tamp things down, he added.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Beijing was “closely following the conflict in northern Myanmar.”
“We urge parties to immediately stop the fighting, settle differences peacefully through dialogue and consultation, avoid escalation of the situation and take effective measures to ensure security and stability at the China-Myanmar border,” she added.
Even if the regime is able to claw back some territory and stabilize one of the fronts it is fighting on, the 10.27 offensive has humiliated and weakened the junta at a time when it is already dealing with foreign exchange shortages and economic difficulties as a result of sanctions, and a corruption scandal involving several allies of Min Aung Hlaing.
On Oct. 31, Canada, along with Britain and United States, imposed new sanctions against junta leaders and entities, seeking to cut off the supply of arms to the military.
That move followed a visit by NUG leaders to Ottawa, where they met with lawmakers and officials from Global Affairs Canada. Speaking to The Globe and Mail after the trip, NUG presidential spokesperson U Kyaw Zaw said it had been a great success, and praised Canada’s support for democratic forces in Myanmar.
“We encourage our friends in Canada to continue to strengthen co-ordinated sanctions and end the regime’s impunity,” he said.