Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum speaks during a news conference at the National Palace, in Mexico City, on Nov. 6.ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP/Getty Images
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed a reassuring tone after Donald Trump’s re-election, even as the incoming U.S. president threatens tariffs, mass deportations and unilateral action against drug cartels.
In her first news conference following the announcement of Mr. Trump’s win she emphasized Mexico’s longstanding alliance with the U.S.
“Mexico always comes out ahead. We are an independent, free, sovereign country. There will be a good relationship with the United States, I am convinced of that,” she said on Wednesday. “There’s no reason to worry.” The president demurred on congratulating Mr. Trump, but posted congratulations on X later in the day.
In subsequent post on Thursday, Ms. Sheinbaum said she spoke with Mr. Trump that morning. She described the first telephone call between the leaders since Tuesday’s U.S. election as “very cordial,” adding that she and Trump spoke about the “good relations that we’ll have between Mexico and the United States.”
Mr. Trump has threatened and denigrated Mexico repeatedly on his three runs for the U.S. presidency, promising to terminate trade deals, pledging to build a border wall and accusing the country of “not sending their best,” a reference to Mexican migrants residing in the U.S.
The 2024 election was no different, though Mexico played a less prominent role. Mr. Trump described Ms. Sheinbaum as “a very, very nice woman,” then promised 25 per cent tariffs if “they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country.”
Ms. Sheinbaum responded Tuesday to Trump’s latest threats by pointing to 75 per cent fewer migrants arriving at the U.S. border since December, 2023 – the product of robust Mexican enforcement and U.S. asylum restrictions.
The threats are causing alarm in business and diplomatic circles, however: the country sends more than 80 per cent of its exports to the United States and the auto industry has flourished with continental free trade. The Sheinbaum administration also hopes to leverage “nearshoring,” in which supply chains move from China to countries with access to the U.S. market.
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“Few nations were more exposed to a second Trump term than Mexico and Canada. Both rely heavily on the U.S. market, with over a third of each country’s GDP tied to exports,” said Diego Marroquín Bitar, the Bersin-Foster North America scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. “Mexico is particularly exposed, as underscored by the peso’s sharp drop against the U.S. dollar.”
The peso sank as Mr. Trump came closer to winning, but on Wednesday regained what it lost on election night, though the currency’s recent woes have been tied to domestic policies spooking investors – such as a judicial overhaul putting all judges to popular vote in 2025 and 2027. Still, “it’s subject to the whims and tantrums” of Trump, said Manuel Molano, an economist and analyst.
Mexico endured a similar rollercoaster during Mr. Trump’s first administration. President Enrique Peña Nieto signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement prior to leaving office in December, 2018.
His successor, president Andrés Manuel López Obrador – who supported the trade deal’s signing – struck up an unlikely relationship with Mr. Trump. He was a fellow populist, who, the Mexican leader repeatedly said, treated Mexico with “respect” – even after the U.S. president threatened Mexico with escalating tariffs if migration wasn’t halted.
“The agenda between López Obrador and Trump concentrated basically on only two issues, which were the negotiation and rectification of the USMCA and migration,” said Martha Bárcena, a former Mexican ambassador in Washington from 2019 to 2021.
She cautions that restoring such an arrangement is unlikely. “If our bilateral relationship was complex, it gets even more complex.”
Whether Mr. Trump and Ms. Sheinbaum can hit it off remains to be seen. Mr. Trump and other Republicans have spoken ominously of deploying U.S. military assets against drug cartels and designating them “foreign terrorist organizations.” But both Mr. López Obrador, known as “AMLO,” and Ms. Sheinbaum have criticized the U.S. for arresting cartel boss Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada – which they blame for triggering violence in Sinaloa state amid armed conflict in the eponymous drug cartel.
“Mexico is the main loser with Trump’s victory,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a political analyst in Mexico City. “The way that he governs adds a lot of complexity.”
Difficulties with Mr. Trump doesn’t mean ruling party supporters would have preferred Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, however. AMLO supporters often boasted that Mr. López Obrador “tamed” his U.S. counterpart while in office.
“They think that AMLO got along with Trump and it will be the same with Claudia Sheinbaum,” said Bárbara González, a political analyst in Monterrey. “He has them up against the wall. And there will be no scruples like with the Democrats and their policies of at least maintaining the appearance of being good and empathetic neighbours.”
With a file from Reuters
Donald Trump will face far fewer limits on his power when he is sworn in once more as U.S. president in January, returning to Washington as the head of a Republican Party that has been remade in his image over the last eight years.
Reuters