Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain effectively tied even after three of the most tumultuous months in recent American political history.Eduardo Munoz/Reuters
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat for the popular vote, 48 per cent to 48 per cent, the final national poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found, as the Vice-President struggles for an edge over the former president with an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided.
The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House. They have been looking to Harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Harris and Trump remain effectively tied even after three of the most tumultuous months in recent American political history. A high-profile debate, two attempts on Trump’s life, dozens of rallies across seven battlefield states and hundreds of millions spent on advertisements have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race.
Harris’ position, if anything, may have declined among likely voters since the last Times/Siena College poll, taken early this month. At the time, she had a slight lead over Trump, 49 per cent to 46 per cent. The change is within the margin of error, but the Times’ national polling average has registered a tightening in polls over the past few weeks as well, suggesting at the very least that this contest has drawn even closer.
Although this latest Times/Siena College poll offers a glimpse into national sentiment, the presidential election will be decided in the seven battleground states where Harris and Trump have devoted the overwhelming amount of their time and resources. Most polls in those states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin – suggest the contest is equally close.
There are glimmers of hope in this final national poll for both Trump and Harris. For Trump, it is immigration: Fifteen per cent of respondents named immigration as their top issue, up from 12 per cent.
Trump has hammered Harris on the Biden administration’s record on the issue – he has pledged to undertake “the largest deportation in American history” – as a closing message in his campaign speeches and advertisements. Voters by an 11-point margin said they trusted Trump more than Harris to deal with immigration.
“I’m sorry, I do not agree with the illegals and the refugees coming in the country,” said Sandra Remiker, 51, a Republican from Barron, Wisconsin, who said she was planning to vote for Trump. She added: “I mean, if we can’t help our own people, our own veterans that are living on the streets, we shouldn’t be helping other countries.”
And voters continue to be pessimistic about the direction of the country, a measure that historically has been a danger sign for the party in power. Just 28 per cent of respondents said the country was heading in the right direction. Trump has repeatedly painted a dark picture of the nation under President Joe Biden and Harris.
The percentage of Americans who said that Trump, 78, is too old to be president remained at 41 per cent, essentially unchanged from July even after a series of rambling campaign speeches and appearances led to a swell of questions, including direct criticism from Harris, about the former president’s mental acuity and fitness.
The poll included some encouraging signs for Harris. She has narrowed the gap with Trump on the economy, which remains the top issue for voters. Trump had a 13-point edge over Harris on which candidate could better manage the economy in the poll last month. That has shrunk to 6 points.
This latest poll, as most of the polls done by Times/Siena over the past three months, is evidence of a U.S. electorate that is both polarized and frozen.The New York Times News Service
“She does have a little bit more experience in the government at least,” said Luis Mata, an independent in San Antonio who said he changed his mind and decided to support Harris after watching her debate with Trump. “I know Donald Trump was our president for one term, but, before that, I don’t think he really had too much experience aside from being a businessman.”
Harris also has a 16-point lead over Trump on which candidate would do a better job in protecting abortion access, a central theme of her campaign, as she seeks to build up support among female voters.
And Harris still has room to grow. About 15 per cent of voters described themselves as not fully decided, and Harris is leading with that group, 42 per cent to 32 per cent. Two weeks ago, Trump had a minute edge with undecided or persuadable voters, 36 per cent to 35 per cent.
“Both are not great candidates, and I’m on the fence if I’m going to vote at all – I don’t like either of them,” said Christopher Morgan, 33, an independent from Atlanta. But, he added: “If I had to, I’d probably vote for Kamala Harris. I don’t like Trump because I feel like he violated democracy. He should be accountable for what happened on Jan. 6.”
The poll found that the 9 per cent of Americans who said they already had voted leaned heavily toward Harris, 59 per cent to 40 per cent. That is consistent with the advantage Democrats have historically had in early voting and mail voting, although there are signs this year that Republicans, unlike in 2020, are casting early ballots in unusually heavy numbers.
This latest poll, as most of the polls done by Times/Siena over the past three months, is evidence of an electorate that is both polarized and frozen. There has been little change on some of the key questions used to measure voter sentiment.
Harris was viewed favourably by 46 per cent of the electorate after Biden dropped out; she is seen favourably by 48% in this latest poll. Trump was viewed favourably by 47 per cent of respondents after Biden dropped out; he is now viewed favourably by 48% of respondents.
The gender gap is as stark as ever. Harris leads Trump among women, 54 per cent to 42 per cent, while Trump leads Harris among men, 55 per cent to 41 per cent. There was essentially no change in those numbers over the course of this short contest.
Larrissa Alexander, 27, a Republican in Atlanta, said she voted for Biden in 2020, but decided to oppose Harris this time because of the way Harris handled immigration as Biden’s vice president.
“I was very, extremely disappointed in her response to our immigration issue,” she said. “And when she was first elected, that was one of the things that she was tasked with handling. And she accepted that responsibility. And then every time she was asked about it or pressed about it, it just was attitude-giving in return.”
The poll found that voters are just as divided over congressional races as they are in the presidential race: Forty-eight per cent said they were planning to vote for a Republican for Congress in their district, while 48% said they would support a Democrat. The House, currently under narrow Republican control, is up for grabs in this election.
This question is a rough measure of the fight for control; the question of which party controls the House of Representatives will come down to the outcome in a small number of swing congressional districts.
How this poll was conducted
Here are the key things to know about this poll from The New York Times and Siena College:
- Interviewers spoke with 2,516 voters nationwide Sunday through Wednesday.
- Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Overall, 98% of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.
- Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, interviewers placed more than 260,000 calls to more than 80,000 voters.
- To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, such as people without a college degree.
- The margin of sampling error among likely voters is about plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, although many other challenges create additional sources of error. When the difference between two values is computed – such as a candidate’s lead in a race – the margin of error is twice as large.