Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Shigeru Ishiba arrives for a news conference a day after Japan's lower house election, in Tokyo, on Oct. 28.Pool/Getty Images
Japanese politics was in a state of flux Monday after voters punished Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s scandal-tainted ruling coalition in a weekend election, costing the Liberal Democratic Party and its partners their parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years.
But the fractured nature of the opposition means the LDP, which has ruled Japan almost continuously since its formation in 1955, remains most likely to form the next government, either with a minority or by cobbling together some sort of grand coalition.
Mr. Ishiba was defiant Monday, saying that despite the “exceptionally harsh judgment from the public,” the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, will seek to stay in power.
“We are not thinking of instantly forming a new coalition at this point,” he said, according to public broadcaster NHK. “I think we need to start by discussing how to introduce each party’s policies with a humble attitude. In the process, we will work to build a relationship of trust with other parties, so that people will have faith in us that we are working together for the sake of the people.”
The LDP and Komeito took 215 seats in the lower house, down from 279 and short of the 233 needed for a majority. Two cabinet ministers and Komeito’s leader, Keiichi Ishii, lost their seats.
The biggest winner of the night, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), won 148 seats, up from 98.
Support from smaller parties such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) or the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which won 28 and 38 seats respectively, could now be key for the LDP.
DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki and JIP leader Nobuyuki Baba have both ruled out joining the coalition but have said they are open to ad hoc co-operation on certain issues. Both are also being courted by the CDPJ, but long-standing disputes mean coming to an agreement may be difficult.
The constitution gives parties 30 days to hash out a grouping that can govern, but Mr. Ishiba’s party will try to rush this by convening a special parliamentary session to select the prime minister on Nov. 11, according to Kyodo News.
Tobias Harris, the founder of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory firm, said it is unlikely Mr. Ishiba “will survive to lead a new government as prime minister,” though he could stay on in a caretaker role while the LDP picks a new leader.
Mr. Ishiba was himself selected as party leader only a month ago and had been counting on a honeymoon bump in popularity to carry him through the election.
Unfortunately, said Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations, public frustration with the ruling party “has been obvious for some time.”
The LDP has been tainted by twin funding scandals, which burst into view after the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2022. Mr. Abe’s killer, Tetsuya Yamagami, was motivated by the former LDP leader’s ties to the Unification Church. Numerous LDP parliamentarians and government officials had to acknowledge receiving money or support from the church, which was stripped of its tax-protected status last year.
Making things worse were subsequent revelations of a slush fund linked to Mr. Abe’s wing of the party. Of 46 party members involved in the scandal, 28 lost their seats in this weekend’s election, NHK reported.
With both the LDP and CDPJ reaching out to potential partners, Mr. Ishiba warned that a protracted period of uncertainty could be damaging.
“We cannot allow not even a moment of stagnation, as we face very difficult situations both in our security and economic environments,” he said.
Masakazu Tokura, the head of Keidanren, Japan’s most powerful business federation, said the country is facing severe challenges, such as boosting energy security. The political chaos could also force the Bank of Japan to backtrack on plans to raise interest rates and wean the country off decades of monetary stimulus, a policy that was criticized by multiple parties during the election.
Writing in The Japan Times, Michael MacArthur Bosack, a special adviser for government relations at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, said the blame for the election result sits squarely on Mr. Ishiba’s shoulders.
“Despite promising a new type of government, his choices for ministers reflected old school politics as he awarded longtime allies and punished opponents,” Mr. MacArthur Bosack said. “Only four ministers were younger than 60 and only two women earned senior appointments. It was not the sort of Cabinet that a prime minister promising modern politics would put together.”
With files from Reuters.