After decades of support, Israel now finds itself with few allies

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In the Gaza Strip, Israel clearly has the upper hand in its military campaign against Hamas. But in the wider arena of international opinion, that putative victory is increasingly starting to resemble a defeat.

It’s a startling reversal for Israel, which had near-universal support in the wake of the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. Analysts say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has squandered nearly all of that goodwill – and aggravated key allies, including the United States – by refusing to lay out a postwar plan for the governance of Gaza, which most of the international community believes should be made part of a future Palestinian state.

The damage done to Hamas and Gaza can be measured in physical terms. More than 60 per cent of Gaza’s buildings have been damaged, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The Palestinian Ministry of Health says more than 35,000 people have been killed, and the World Health Organization says a famine has begun in the shattered north of the strip. Israel has been accused by Egypt and others of cutting off the main corridor for humanitarian aid as part of its assault on the city of Rafah, in the south. (Israel has in turn blamed Egypt for the closing.)

Israel’s losses are harder to quantify, but could prove just as hard to recover from. After receiving decades of almost unquestioning support from the U.S. and much of the West, the government, led by Mr. Netanyahu, finds itself with few allies who support the military campaign.

A January ruling by the International Court of Justice, ordering Israel to “take all reasonable measures within their power to prevent genocide” in Gaza, was followed by the outbreak of pro-Palestinian protests at campuses across North America and Europe. Then came U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to pause the shipment of bombs and artillery shells to Israel as a way of signalling his displeasure with Mr. Netanyahu’s decision to green light the assault on Rafah.

The past week alone has seen the United Nations General Assembly vote – by a 143-to-9 margin, with 25 abstentions – in favour of admitting Palestine as an independent state. A day after that May 10 vote, the Israeli entrant at the Eurovision song contest, Eden Golan, faced loud boos and chants of “Free Palestine!” even as she finished fifth in the 37-country event.

The International Criminal Court may soon deepen Israel’s problems, if prosecutor Karim Khan moves ahead with anticipated indictments against Mr. Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials. Mr. Khan has been investigating the Israeli and Hamas leadership since 2021.

“I don’t remember a time when Israelis have felt more embattled,” said Shalom Lipner, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former adviser to several Israeli prime ministers, including Mr. Netanyahu. “There is a pervasive sense of siege.”

While the U.S. was among the dissenting voices in the General Assembly – meaning the resolution will almost certainly be quashed by Washington’s veto at the Security Council – even Israel’s biggest ally has begun to distance itself from Mr. Netanyahu and how the country has conducted the war in Gaza.

Mr. Biden is a self-declared Zionist, but has made his discontent with Mr. Netanyahu public as fears mount that Muslim voters who supported the Democrats in 2020 will seek to punish the President for backing Israel.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is buffeted by similar electoral winds, shifted Canada from its historic position of supporting Israel on nearly all matters at the UN to abstaining on May 10. In explaining that move, Global Affairs Canada hinted it could go further and recognize a Palestinian state before a final-status peace deal – which has been under negotiations for 30 years – is reached.

The mood is also changing in Europe, where Spain, Ireland, Slovakia and Malta have signalled their intention to jointly recognize a Palestinian state as early as next week.

All of this seemed impossible back in October, as the scope of the atrocities committed by Hamas during its rampage across southern Israel became clear. More than 1,100 Israelis and foreigners were killed on Oct. 7, and more than 200 others were taken hostage back to Gaza.

Western leaders raced to Israel to show their solidarity with Mr. Netanyahu. Each spoke of their country’s “full support” for Israel.

But that support has faded with each passing week, as the death toll in Gaza has skyrocketed. Meanwhile, the Hamas leadership apparently remains intact and the 100-plus remaining hostages – dozens of whom are believed to have died in custody – are unreturned.

Concern about Israel’s lack of care in choosing its targets in Gaza grew into outrage after an April 1 air strike that killed seven aid workers from World Central Kitchen.

In the background, both in Israel and abroad, is the spreading belief that Mr. Netanyahu is keeping the war going in part because it helps him maintain his coalition government and avoid elections that polls suggest his Likud Party would convincingly lose. He has stood resolutely opposed to any kind of postwar planning that includes a peace process intended to bring about a Palestinian state – a position that has drawn criticism from even Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who said Wednesday that Mr. Netanyahu has Israel on “a dangerous course” that could see it assume full military and civilian control of Gaza and its 2.3 million citizens.

Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based pollster, said that Israel’s actions in Gaza were accepted by Western governments earlier in the war, “on the assumption that Israel had an aim that it was trying to achieve, that could be achieved, and then those things would stop.” But eventually, she said, it became clear that Israel has no workable plan for the day after the war ends.

The invasion of Rafah, which Mr. Biden had said was a “red line” for him, and which scuppered U.S-and-Egyptian-mediated ceasefire talks, became the moment many of Israel’s friends decided they could no longer be seen supporting the military campaign in Gaza. Mr. Biden said assaulting Rafah without having a plan in place to protect the more than one million people living there was “just wrong.”

Mr. Netanyahu claims to be unperturbed. “If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone,” he told Israelis the day after Mr. Biden said he was slowing the flow of weapons.

Critics say the Israel-against-the-world narrative works in the Prime Minister’s favour. “He will never say, ‘I’m trying not to end the war,’” said Yossi Alpher, a former Mossad agent who later became a prominent peace activist. “But he’s not unhappy to let the war continue.”