A smoke plume erupts after an Israeli airstrike targeted the outskirts of the village of Ibl al-Saqi in southern Lebanon on Sept. 30, 2024.RABIH DAHER/AFP/Getty Images
Two weeks of unprecedented attacks targeting Iranian-backed militias in Lebanon and Yemen have not only restored Israel’s reputation as the most powerful military force in the Middle East, they appear to have refreshed the Israeli public’s confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Beforehand, Mr. Netanyahu’s political future looked so bleak that one analyst described him as being in a “political hospice.” He was the face of Israel’s controversial war in the Gaza Strip, which has left more than 41,600 Palestinians dead while achieving neither of Israel’s war aims of destroying Hamas – which killed more than 1,100 Israelis in a shocking invasion of southern Israel last Oct. 7 – and returning the more than 100 Israelis and foreigners the militant group still holds hostage.
Israel makes commando-style incursions into Lebanon as leaders hint invasion is imminent
Mr. Netanyahu was blamed – by families of the hostages, as well as a growing number of foreign governments – for scuppering internationally backed attempts to negotiate a ceasefire that would see the remaining hostages freed in exchange for a halt in the fighting. Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, has been seeking a warrant for Mr. Netanyahu’s arrest since May in connection with alleged war crimes, including the intentional targeting of civilians in Gaza.
Mr. Netanyahu, who also faces domestic prosecutions related to alleged corruption, was viewed by many as intentionally prolonging the conflict in order to avoid facing an electoral and judicial reckoning. Opinion polls showed as recently as Sept. 5 that he would face defeat if he were forced to call an election.
A month ago, Mr. Netanyahu’s political future looked so bleak that one analyst described him as being in a “political hospice.”Reuters
Public opinion started to tilt back in his favour after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia simultaneously exploded on Sept. 17 and 18. The attack, attributed to Israel’s Mossad intelligence service, killed at least 42 people and crippled Hezbollah’s internal communications network.
Israel and Hezbollah had been locked in a low-intensity conflict since Oct. 8, when Hezbollah began firing rockets and missiles into northern Israel in what it said was an act of “solidarity” with Hamas. The tit-for-tat fighting drove tens of thousands of people out of their homes on both sides of the border before the Israeli escalation, which Mr. Netanyahu said was aimed at allowing residents of northern Israel to return to their homes.
Opinion: After Hezbollah’s miscalculations, it has lost much of its power
The pager attack was followed by a series of air strikes on Hezbollah targets, culminating in Friday’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other senior members of the group in a massive bombing that destroyed his underground bunker in Beirut, as well as six apartment blocks above it. At least 33 people were killed.
It was Israel’s military and intelligence services that carried out the stunningly rapid destruction of Hezbollah’s command structure. But it was Mr. Netanyahu who gave the order to proceed – and who has been reaping the political benefits.
“People want to see strong leadership, and even though people may not agree with him or feel like he has no plan, he keeps destroying Israel’s enemies,” said Mitchell Barak, the Jerusalem-based political analyst who coined the “political hospice” line.
Analysis: For many Arabs, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was a villain, rather than a resistance hero
Mr. Barak, who worked for Mr. Netanyahu early in the Prime Minister’s political career, says his old boss is clearly on the rebound. “If there are elections tomorrow, he’s running unopposed,” he said, referring to the fact that Israel’s centre-left opposition has no candidate who can match Mr. Netanyahu’s popularity. “In a time of war, he’s a strong leader, for better or for worse.”
A poll published Friday by the Maariv newspaper – conducted after the pager attacks but before the assassination of Mr. Nasrallah – showed Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party had regained its standing as the most popular in the country, on pace to win 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared with 19 for the National Unity bloc headed by former defence minister Benny Gantz. That marked a sharp reversal from the Sept. 5 survey conducted by the same newspaper, which found National Unity had surpassed Likud, with 23 seats to 22.
Israeli tanks were seen massing near the border with Lebanon as Hezbollah's deputy said the group was ready for a ground invasion. Lebanon's government said one million of its people have now been displaced by Israel's attacks.
Reuters
Mr. Netanyahu currently heads an eight-party coalition in the Knesset that has at times looked on the verge of dissolving over the possibility of a ceasefire deal in Gaza. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir – who lead separate far-right factions that support Mr. Netanyahu – have repeatedly threatened to pull their support from the government if it agrees to a ceasefire deal before Hamas is completely destroyed.
While opposition parties have said they will support the government if it signs a ceasefire that returns the remaining hostages (33 of whom are believed to have died in captivity), Mr. Netanyahu has thus far stuck with his coalition partners.
His hold on power received a boost Sunday when Gideon Saar and his centre-right New Hope party joined the government, bolstering the coalition by four Knesset seats, to 68, and making it harder for any of the other coalition members to collapse the government on their own.
An Israeli air strike hits central Beirut for the first time in nearly a year of conflict
Another poll, conducted by the Tel Aviv-based Israel Democracy Institute, was in the field even as Mr. Nasrallah was assassinated – meaning some of the 850 respondents replied to questions Friday, while the Hezbollah leader was alive, while others replied Saturday and Sunday, after it was known he had been killed. Tamar Hermann, senior research fellow at the IDI, said she noted two key differences between those who responded to the poll before and after the assassination.
Among those who replied afterward, there was a higher level of trust in both Mr. Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. “People think it was impossible to go on with what was happening,” Prof. Hermann said, referring to the Hezbollah rocket fire and the evacuation of northern Israel.
The other difference was how safe people felt before and after the assassination. On Friday, 59 per cent said they were worried about their safety. By Saturday or Sunday, that number was 68 per cent. “People expect a retaliation from Hezbollah or from Iran,” Prof. Hermann said.
Palestinian militant group Hamas said an Israeli strike killed its leader in Lebanon on Monday, while another Palestinian militant group said three of its leaders were killed in a strike on Beirut, the first attack within the city limits.
Reuters