Hope flickers as Iran elects moderate president and Israel-Hamas talks inch closer to ceasefire

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Hope, a rare commodity in this region, flickered across the Middle East over the weekend as Hamas accepted a U.S.-backed ceasefire plan for Gaza and Iran elected a president who favours better ties with the West.

Peace isn’t yet around the corner. Israeli negotiators have said there are still “gaps” between their position and that of Hamas that will likely require weeks of talks to close. And Iran’s foreign policy remains in the hands of the country’s stern Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has given his country’s backing to both Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia in their deadly battles with Israel.

But the surprise victory of Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate, in Iran’s presidential election on Friday has the potential to change the shape of Iran’s dangerous confrontation with Israel and its main backer, the United States.

Mr. Pezeshkian, the lone reformist allowed into the race, triumphed over hardliner Saeed Jalili with 53.7 per cent of the vote in a second-round runoff. Turnout, which hit a record low of just under 40 per cent in the first round of voting on June 28, when four candidates were on the ballot, rose to 50 per cent once the race narrowed to the two front runners.

A 69-year-old cardiac surgeon, Mr. Pezeshkian was an almost-unknown political figure until he entered the snap election that followed the May 19 death of his arch-conservative predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi. In speeches, he said he favours negotiations with the West aimed at lifting economic sanctions and ending Iran’s international isolation. His campaign was supported by the heavyweights of Iran’s reformist movement, including former president Mohammad Khatami and ex-foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

In a victory speech delivered Saturday in Tehran, Mr. Pezeshkian said he would “seek lasting peace and tranquillity and co-operation in the region, as well as dialogue and constructive interaction with the world.”

That will be up to Ayatollah Khamenei, not Mr. Pezeshkian. The president-elect, who takes office in early August, will have more control over the tone of Iran’s foreign policy – through choosing a foreign minister and appointing ambassadors – than its content, said Abas Aslani, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran.

But Kim Ghattas, a Beirut-based analyst of regional politics, said the fact that Mr. Pezeshkian was allowed to run in, and win, the election suggested Ayatollah Khamenei and his inner circle were interested in “a softer face” for the country’s international relations.

“I suspect that if the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards did not suspect that it will work for them, Pezeshkian would not be president today,” Ms. Ghattas said. “I think what it means is we will not have escalation by Iran.”

Even the regime’s hardliners will have heard the plea from Iran’s voters, who made it clear on Friday they are tired of the wars and economic hardship.

Israelis have repeatedly delivered a similar message to Mr. Netanyahu, who has been accused of prolonging the war in Gaza out of fears that far-right members of his government will quit and force an election if he accepts a ceasefire.

Saturday saw the latest in a series of huge demonstrations in Tel Aviv calling on Mr. Netanyahu to accept a deal that would bring the remaining hostages home. On Sunday, protesters marked nine months of war by blocking roads and highways across Israel.

Meanwhile, fighting continued to rage in Gaza and across the Israel-Lebanon border. The Palestinian Health Ministry reported Sunday that 55 Gazans had been killed over the previous 24 hours, including 16 people who were killed Saturday when the United Nations-run school they were sheltering in was struck by an Israeli air strike. The Israeli military said the school was being used by Hamas as a base, something the militant group denied.

Hezbollah fired 60 rockets into Israel on Sunday, a day after one of its members, Mayssam Moustapha Attar, was killed in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa region by a missile fired from an Israeli drone. The Israeli military said Mr. Attar had been a “key operative” in Hezbollah’s air defence unit.

The Hezbollah barrage caused fires in northern Israel, injuring at least two people, and Israel retaliated by striking several villages in south Lebanon with artillery.

Even as the death toll in Gaza rose past 38,000 – and fears remained high that a miscalculation could tip the Israel-Hezbollah conflict into another all-out war – there were hints of possible de-escalation.

Hamas has reportedly dropped its demand for an immediate and complete halt in the fighting, and accepted a U.S. proposal that would see ceasefire negotiations continue over the first phase of the deal, during which the group would begin releasing the women, elderly and sick among the 120 Israeli hostages it is holding.

It’s unclear what a pause in the Gaza war might mean for the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has killed at least 430 Lebanese and 25 Israelis and has driven tens of thousands of people from their homes on both sides of the border. The fighting has thus far remained carefully calibrated, with both sides seeking to avoid a major escalation.

Mr. Aslani said Iran favoured a ceasefire in Gaza, and along the Israel-Lebanon border, as soon as possible. “The status quo has its own risks. Things can get out of control,” he said. “But a ceasefire cannot happen one way, or just from one side.”