First round of Indonesia’s election shows former general Prabowo ahead in race to succeed Jokowi

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Tens of millions of Indonesians voted Wednesday in one of the world’s largest and most complex elections, spanning thousands of islands and three time zones, to choose a successor to President Joko Widodo and some 20,000 other office holders.

Final results will be released in March, but early counts suggest a first-round victory for Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, running on a ticket with Mr. Joko’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka. To avoid a runoff, which would be held in June, Mr. Prabowo needs to win more than 50 per cent of the national vote in a three-way race against former governors Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.

In a rousing victory speech to supporters Wednesday, Mr. Prabowo promised to create a government consisting of “the best Indonesians.” Rival campaigns have warned, without providing evidence, of widespread fraud and vowed to contest the result.

A disgraced special forces commander once banned from entering the United States because of alleged human-rights violations during the Suharto dictatorship, 72-year-old Mr. Prabowo has pursued the presidency for decades, through means both fair and foul.

B.J. Habibie, who helmed a transitional government following Suharto’s resignation in 1998, once accused Mr. Prabowo of trying to overthrow him in a coup. Many feared a similar situation in 2019, when the former general refused to accept defeat in that year’s presidential election and his supporters rioted in Jakarta and elsewhere.

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The Constitutional Court upheld Mr. Joko’s victory however, and he subsequently appointed Mr. Prabowo to his cabinet. Since then, there has been a remarkable rapprochement between the rivals, and Mr. Joko – better known as Jokowi – has supported Mr. Prabowo’s 2024 campaign, allowing the older man to coast off of some of his immense popularity.

This has not been without controversy. In tacitly endorsing Mr. Prabowo, Jokowi broke with his ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, likely costing candidate Ganjar Pranowo any chance of victory, a move widely seen as an attempt to maintain influence beyond his constitutionally limited two terms.

Mr. Prabowo’s running mate, Jokowi’s son Mr. Gibran, has never held national office and at 36 was too young to be eligible for the vice-presidency. The age requirement was overthrown by Indonesia’s top court last year, with Jokowi’s brother-in-law, then-chief justice Anwar Usman, casting the deciding vote.

This manoeuvring has damaged the reputation of a man once called “Indonesia’s Obama.” A furniture exporter born in a slum in Surakarta, Jokowi became the central Javan city’s mayor in 2005, then ran the capital Jakarta, before being elected president in 2014, promising to stamp out corruption and reduce the influence of political dynasties.

Critics of Jokowi see his support for Mr. Prabowo – who was once married to Suharto’s daughter and maintains close ties with the military – as opposing what he purported to stand for. A documentary released days before the election even accused Jokowi of illicitly using state resources to support Mr. Prabowo, something his campaign said was “hateful slander.”

“It seems likely that his actions have dramatically altered the race and possibly even decided it – to the detriment of Indonesian democracy,” said Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“Although Jokowi secured re-election in 2019 – largely due to his successful economic policy – he has failed in virtually every other policy area,” Mr. Kurlantzick wrote this week. “Indonesia has backslid on upholding democratic rights, and he also has allowed the army, notorious in the Suharto era for its brutality and involvement in national politics, to meddle extensively in domestic affairs, taking greater control of many critical ministries. Additionally, he has undermined the anticorruption watchdog and made alliances with some of the country’s most venal and archaic politicians.”

But the outgoing president remains hugely popular, particularly among younger voters, who make up around half of the 205-million-strong electorate.

Under Jokowi, Indonesia’s economy has grown 4 to 5 per cent annually, and his government has invested heavily in infrastructure, building roads and new airports and breaking ground on a new capital city, Nusantara, designed to replace the sinking, heavily-polluted Jakarta.

While youth unemployment is relatively high and many Indonesians depend on low-paying jobs, there is widespread satisfaction with Jokowi’s approach to the economy, and the candidates to replace him all promised to maintain it. A recent survey of 28 developed and developing nations by Edelman found that 73 per cent of Indonesians believed they would be better off in five years, more than any other country but Kenya.

Entrepreneur Novan Maradona said he wanted a candidate who would keep current policies.

“If we start over from zero, it will take time,” the 42-year-old said.

This desire for continuity has benefited Mr. Prabowo, who has spent the years since 2019 swapping his strongman image for that of a cuddly grandfather, with videos on social media targeting voters born after Indonesia’s transition to democracy.

“I like Prabowo because he is aggressive but can also be gentle,” said Keko Iyeres, a 25-year-old student. “We need a leader like that. And I see that Jokowi also supports him.”

With major reserves of coal, palm oil, pulp and nickel, Indonesia plays an important role in the global economy, and particularly in the green transition. Jokowi has sought to onshore the mining and processing of nickel ore, to give Indonesia a key position in the electric-vehicle supply chain.

The fourth-most populous country and largest Muslim nation, Indonesia is a major player in the so-called “Global South.” Jokowi was praised for his handling of the G20 summit in Bali in 2022, and has also maintained a delicate balance in relations with China and the U.S.

Mr. Prabowo has vowed to continue this approach, though he is seen as closer to Washington than Jokowi and has in the past taken a more nationalist stance on Indonesia’s territorial disputes with China, which could cause tensions with Beijing.

With reports from Reuters.