How Kamala Harris defines her position on the Israel-Hamas war could make an outsized difference at the polls

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With just over three months left until the U.S. presidential election, Kamala Harris is poised to take Joe Biden’s place at the top of the Democratic ticket. Along with that, she will inherit one of his most enduring electoral headaches: the Israel-Hamas war.

The conflict has scrambled the electoral math for a significant minority within the Democratic tent, some of whom have said they will withhold their votes as a way of protesting against their country’s support for Israel.

But until now the focus of much of their ire has been Mr. Biden, who earlier this summer was being branded “Genocide Joe” by pro-Palestinian campus demonstrators for not cutting off shipments of arms and funding to Israel, a long-time U.S. ally.

Mr. Biden’s announcement that he would no longer seek the Democratic nomination thrust Ms. Harris, his Vice-President, into the political spotlight. Although in the past she has called for a ceasefire and expressed concern about the dire humanitarian conditions that the fighting has created in the Gaza Strip, she has faced pressure to further define her position on the issue.

While polling shows that the conflict is far less important to U.S. voters than domestic issues, such as the economy and immigration, even a slight change of enthusiasm among a small number of voters in some swing states could make an outsized difference, experts say. And opposition to the war has found traction with younger voters, traditionally a Democratic constituency. Yet it remains an open question whether anything she can say will change the minds of voters.

On Thursday, in Ms. Harris’s first comments on foreign policy since becoming the likely Democratic presidential nominee, she marked a slight shift from the tone set by Mr. Biden.

In remarks after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, she expressed deep concern for the people of Israel, and told reporters that while Israel has a right to defend itself, how it does so matters. She said she “will not be silent” about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and called for an end to the war.

Mr. Biden’s administration has sought to broker a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, but a deal remains elusive after almost nine months of war that has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities. Israeli authorities say roughly 1,200 people were killed during the Hamas assault on Israel that sparked the fighting.

Some of the thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters who gathered in Washington during Mr. Netanyahu’s visit last week said the new name on the ballot could change the way they think about their vote.

Ron Ashford, a retired public-housing services director from Hyattsville, Md., said he marked his ballot “uncommitted” during the Democratic primaries, making him one of hundreds of thousands of primary voters who likewise refused to support Mr. Biden’s renomination bid. But he said he was feeling more enthusiastic about voting for Ms. Harris than he had about backing Mr. Biden.

“Kamala doesn’t have the best position on this issue, but I’m going to take the chance that she will come around,” he said. “I understand why some Arab Americans may say they want to abstain in the general election, but I hope that when they get into that voting booth, they have second thoughts and vote Democrat.”

Alaine Duncan, from Silver Springs, Md., said she feels that those who abstain in the general election are “misguided.” She said her impression is that Ms. Harris has been more supportive of Palestinians than Mr. Biden. “My view is that she has been more empathetic,” Ms. Duncan said.

Another protester, Mohamed Habouh, an engineer from Miami, said that he doesn’t plan to vote in the election, because he feels both parties have the same approach to supporting Israel. But he said he was open to hearing what Ms. Harris has to say. “It might make me feel better about giving her my vote,” he added.

More than a few voters may be willing to give Ms. Harris more credit than they might have given Mr. Biden, said Gordon Gray, a retired U.S. ambassador to Tunisia and professor of international affairs at George Washington University.

“First of all, even though it was certainly a Biden-Harris administration policy, Biden was very much the face of it. Second of all, he made a number of statements that were widely perceived to be unsympathetic to the Palestinian community. Third, Kamala Harris called for a ceasefire early on,” Prof. Gray said.

Of all the swing states in question, Prof. Gray said, Michigan might be the most sensitive to the issue, as it is home to a large Arab-American constituency that has been particularly critical of Mr. Biden’s approach to Gaza.

“If the Democrats don’t win Michigan, it’s very difficult to see their path to victory in the electoral college. The margins are so thin. That’s where it’s going to be won or lost,” he said.

A Fox News poll published Friday found that Ms. Harris and Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, were tied in Michigan with 49-per-cent support each. And a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Friday said that Ms. Harris had opened a two-percentage-point lead over Mr. Trump nationwide, up from a two-point Democratic deficit in a poll taken before Mr. Biden withdrew.

On the Georgetown University campus last week, some students said the change on the ballot has re-engaged young voters in a frustrating political environment.

Bea Cullingan, a third-year university student from Los Angeles working in Washington for the summer, said she is now feeling more enthusiastic about the election.

“I’m excited about Kamala,” she said. “She’s young, she’s smart, she’s personable. She seems like a real person.”

Sam Sieck, who is studying government at Georgetown, said Ms. Harris has given young people a reason to be interested in the vote.

“Trump and Biden in 2020 was exhausting, and now they’re four years older and nothing has really changed. I definitely heard a lot of apathy about the whole thing,” Mr. Sieck said. “Having Harris will breathe new life into this election. I think she is the kind of nominee that young Democrats have been clamouring for.”