A supporter of the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) poses during a campaign rally in Kaohsiung on January 10, 2024.YASUYOSHI CHIBA/Getty Images
The past 10 days of Taiwan’s presidential election campaign have been dominated by gaffes, mud-slinging and accusations of Chinese interference, such that the ruling party’s candidate may have lost much of his relatively slim lead.
Not that anyone can say with certainty. In the last 10 days before an election in Taiwan, no opinion polls can be published. This is designed to give voters a chance to make up their own minds, but it also means a result that seemed predictable only weeks ago can feel like it’s on a knife edge.
The final polls, in late December and early January, showed Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) headed for victory with about 33 per cent of the vote, several points ahead of his closest rival, Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih. This is in keeping with the general consensus throughout the campaign that it has been Mr. Lai’s to lose: The opposition vote is split, and while there is widespread dissatisfaction with the DPP, which has been in power since 2016, it’s mostly over deliverables rather than policy disagreements.
“This election has become very scandalous, libelous and dirty, and that’s unfortunate because it distracts away from the very real issues that need to be discussed,” said Vincent Chao, a spokesman for Mr. Lai.
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's Vice-President and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate, arrives to an election campaign event in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, December 22, 2023.ANN WANG/Reuters
On Tuesday, opposition parties accused the government of fear-mongering after a pair of emergency alerts were sent to every phone in Taiwan, warning of a Chinese satellite launch. The English-language text in the notification referred to it as a “missile,” something officials later said was a mistranslation.
Jaw Shaw-kong, the KMT vice-presidential candidate, told reporters “there are strong grounds to suspect that, at times, it’s not the Chinese Communists attempting to meddle in the elections but rather the DPP engaging in such interference.”
Mr. Lai has said Chinese interference in this election was “the most serious we have ever seen,” with the DPP claiming China is using propaganda, cyberattacks and military intimidation to favour the KMT, which is typically more conciliatory toward Beijing.
In the past, aggressive actions by Beijing have resulted in a swing toward the DPP, and Mr. Hou’s foreign policy adviser, James Chen, said he doubted China would meddle too much for fear of repeating this.
“The DPP’s main theme in this campaign is to focus on China,” said Mr. Chen, a professor at Taiwan’s Tamkang University. “But China is not the primary issue. Voters care more about domestic problems.”
He said there was a broad consensus among the main parties on how to deal with China, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has vowed to seize the island by force if necessary. Only around 10 per cent of voters support reunification with China, while some 50 per cent favour eventual formal independence for Taiwan, which has been governed separately from China since 1949.
While the KMT supports reunification at some point in the future – though not under Communist rule – Mr. Hou has set out a moderate approach and repeatedly rejected the Hong Kong model of “one country, two systems,” which Beijing hoped to roll out one day in Taiwan.
Hou Yu-ih (C), presidential candidate of the Kuomintang (KMT), visits the Sanhe Market during his campaign rally in Kaohsiung on January 10, 2024.YASUYOSHI CHIBA/Getty Images
“Hou Yu-ih is one of the least traditional KMT leaders,” Mr. Chen said. “He wants to restore suspended channels of communication between Taipei and Beijing and promote mutual trust, but there will be no political engagement [with China] beyond that.”
Mr. Lai has accused the KMT of “aligning with China” and says Taiwan’s democracy and freedoms are at stake in this election. But while there is broad popular support for the DPP’s position on China, polling shows voters are primarily concerned about the economy.
Taiwan has enjoyed strong economic growth under the DPP, but income inequality has become an issue, and young people in particular have struggled with inflation and the cost of housing.
“The DPP has a lot of beautiful slogans and promises,” said Tom Chou, secretary-general of the opposition Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). “But the DPP government of the last four years has been a failure.”
The TPP, founded in 2019 by former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, is the wild card in this election. Polls show between 20 and 30 per cent of voters back Mr. Ko, the first third-party candidate to mount a serious challenge to the KMT and DPP. His focus has been on economic and social issues rather than China policy.
In some polls, Mr. Ko has even led Mr. Hou, and late last year the KMT and TPP entered negotiations for a joint campaign. Many TPP supporters, who are generally more progressive and pro-independence than the conservative KMT, expressed concerns over this plan, however, and the talks eventually collapsed over disagreements about who should top the ticket.
Support for Mr. Ko appeared to plateau or even sink after this, but Mr. Chou said his candidate cannot be counted out, pointing to raucous TPP rallies and widespread dissatisfaction with the two main parties. Mr. Ko is particularly popular with younger voters, who would traditionally favour the DPP, and Mr. Chou said that if the party can encourage a strong youth turnout it can still win on Saturday.
“After the election, the big business will be in selling glasses, because people won’t be able to believe their eyes,” he said.