An electric billboard displays a temperature of 117 degrees Fahrenheit to motorists as they travel in Phoenix, Ariz., on July 18. July is on track to break all temperature records for any month, scientists say, as the planet enters an extended period of exceptional warmth.ASH PONDERS/The New York Times News Service
Consider a place with a relentless procession of scorching days, where daytime pavement is hot enough to deliver second-degree burns and even nighttime temperatures hold above 32 C. Add to that acute water shortages that make it hard to count on sufficient hydration.
It’s difficult to imagine anyone flocking to such a place.
But they do. The place is Maricopa County, which encompasses Phoenix and last year saw the arrival of more people than any other county in the United States.
It is no outlier. Harris County, which encompasses downtown Houston and saw heat index ratings reach 44 degrees this week, was second in population gain. Of the 10 U.S. counties that grew the most in the past year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, only two did not rank among those expected to see the worst rises in heat, according to a Rhodium Group analysis conducted in 2021. Three are in Florida, where more than a dozen insurers have already stopped writing new home insurance policies.
Around the world, rising temperatures have raised fears of climate migration, with people fleeing homes rendered less livable by a changing climate. But in the U.S., people aren’t moving away from places that are likely to catch fire or drown. They are moving toward them.
Misters blow water over an outdoor patio in Phoenix, Ariz. amid the city's worst heat wave on record, on July 25.Mario Tama/Getty Images
Forty-three per cent of all houses built between 1990 and 2010 were in places near wildland, where wildfire risks are highest, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2018. Earlier this year, another analysis found that counties across the U.S. with the highest climate risk from droughts, river floods, hail and other disasters also show the highest growth rates. That’s true even inside the bounds of individual counties, where higher-risk areas attract more people.
“This is a big concern for us,” said Agustin Indaco, an economist at Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar who co-authored that study.
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It means that as warming grows more intense, so too does what geographers call the trapped population, “a very vulnerable population in these high-risk zones that can’t afford to migrate and are suffering the worst parts of climate change,” Prof. Indaco said.
Often, economic reasons are cited for why people move to places at greater climate risk, leaving expensive northeastern cities for more modest property prices in the southwest. But one of the most climate-secure regions in the U.S., the Midwest, also boasts relatively modest home costs. “So that should seem an attractive place to move. But if anything, we found that people are moving away from those regions.”
The heat is on for growing counties
Of the 10 U.S. counties that saw the most population growth in the past year, only two did not rank among those expected to see the worst rises in heat, according to an analysis conducted in 2021. In the top spot was Arizona’s Maricopa County (which includes Phoenix), where nighttime temperatures are regularly above 32 C. Second in population gain was Harris County, which encompasses downtown Houston and saw heat index ratings reach 44 this week. Three are in Florida, where some insurers have already stopped writing new home insurance policies.
Top 10 counties by population growth
2022 estimates, in thousands
Maricopa, Ariz.
Harris, Texas
Collin, Texas
Denton, Texas
Polk, Fla.
Lee, Fla.
Fort Bend, Texas
Hillsborough, Fla.
Bexar, Texas
Montgomery, Texas
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Climate Impact Map
Average June, July, Aug. temperatures, mid-century 2040-2059
16
17
18
19
20
21
23
26
28
29
32
35
38
Temperature ˚C
UNITED STATES
Maricopa Co.
Collin Co.
Dentonn Co.
Montgomery Co.
Bexar Co.
Polk Co.
Harris Co.
Lee Co.
Fort Bend Co.
Hillsborough Co.
john sopinski/the globe and mail, source: u.s. census bureau;
rhodium group climate impact lab
The heat is on for growing counties
Of the 10 U.S. counties that saw the most population growth in the past year, only two did not rank among those expected to see the worst rises in heat, according to an analysis conducted in 2021. In the top spot was Arizona’s Maricopa County (which includes Phoenix), where nighttime temperatures are regularly above 32 C. Second in population gain was Harris County, which encompasses downtown Houston and saw heat index ratings reach 44 this week. Three are in Florida, where some insurers have already stopped writing new home insurance policies.
Top 10 counties by population growth
2022 estimates, in thousands
Maricopa, Ariz.
Harris, Texas
Collin, Texas
Denton, Texas
Polk, Fla.
Lee, Fla.
Fort Bend, Texas
Hillsborough, Fla.
Bexar, Texas
Montgomery, Texas
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Climate Impact Map
Average June, July, Aug. temperatures, mid-century 2040-2059
16
17
18
19
20
21
23
26
28
29
32
35
38
Temperature ˚C
UNITED STATES
Maricopa Co.
Collin Co.
Dentonn Co.
Montgomery Co.
Bexar Co.
Polk Co.
Harris Co.
Lee Co.
Fort Bend Co.
Hillsborough Co.
john sopinski/the globe and mail, source: u.s. census bureau;
rhodium group climate impact lab
The heat is on for growing counties
Of the 10 U.S. counties that saw the most population growth in the past year, only two did not rank among those expected to see the worst rises in heat, according to an analysis conducted in 2021. In the top spot was Arizona’s Maricopa County (which includes Phoenix), where nighttime temperatures are regularly above 32 C. Second in population gain was Harris County, which encompasses downtown Houston and saw heat index ratings reach 44 this week. Three are in Florida, where some insurers have already stopped writing new home insurance policies.
Top 10 counties by population growth
Climate Impact Map
2022 estimates, in thousands
Average June, July, Aug. temperatures, mid-century 2040-2059
16
18
26
35
17
19
20
21
23
28
29
32
38
Maricopa, Ariz.
Temperature ˚C
Harris, Texas
Collin, Texas
Denton, Texas
Polk, Fla.
UNITED STATES
Lee, Fla.
Maricopa Co.
Fort Bend, Texas
Collin Co.
Dentonn Co.
Hillsborough, Fla.
Montgomery Co.
Bexar Co.
Bexar, Texas
Polk Co.
Montgomery,
Texas
10
Harris Co.
Lee Co.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Fort Bend Co.
Hillsborough Co.
john sopinski/the globe and mail, source: u.s. census bureau; rhodium group climate impact lab
Instead, the reasons are more complex, rooted partly in the ways people have been drawn to regions that have become desirable places to live and work despite their potential for future climate-related trouble. Economic incentives have not tended to favour climate caution. No city wants to shrink, and municipalities in the U.S. south have proven particularly effective at pursuing economic growth.
“I don’t think there’s many policy-makers in Houston that are trying to discourage migration to Houston – if any,” said Kevin Smiley, an environmental sociologist at Louisiana State University.
Firefighter EMT William Dorsey lifts a migrant woman suffering from heat exhaustion onto a stretcher in the border community of Eagle Pass, Tex. on June 26.KAYLEE GREENLEE BEAL/Reuters
Growth can compound climate vulnerabilities, too, he said. Pave more farmland and flood risks rise. Add more people to a desert city and demand increases for already-scarce water.
Climate risk has also, for much of the past few decades, come with little cost. U.S. insurers have only recently begun to factor climate change projections into the way they calculate premiums.
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In theory, insurers “are the messengers of risk,” said Birny Birnbaum, a critic of the insurance industry who is executive director for the Center for Economic Justice. “But when it comes to climate change, where have they been? The institution that should have been the leading advocate for addressing ongoing climate risk was simply missing in action, for decades.”
He added: “If you’re a bystander in this era of climate risk, you’re not neutral. You’re a part of the problem.”
Government policies haven’t helped. Federal flood insurance in the U.S. “continues to pay for claims for the same properties again and again,” Mr. Birnbaum said. “That’s one example of how not to do it.”
A sign reading 'Today's High: 115' is posted in South Mountain Park in Phoenix, on July 25.Mario Tama/Getty Images
For insurers, however, change is under way. They are refusing to write policies in some fire-prone areas of California and Colorado. Others are abandoning entire states. Since 2015, home insurance premiums have risen by 40 per cent in Texas, 41 per cent in Colorado and 57 per cent in Florida – more than double the 21 per cent national average increase, according to figures tracked by LexisNexis Risk Solutions.
But populations have continued to swell in each of those states.
It is human nature to discount long-term considerations.
“Most people live for today and don’t worry as much about tomorrow,” said Laurie Lavine, a real-estate agent who grew up in Winnipeg and built a career in Calgary before moving to Phoenix in 2009.
People work on the bell tower and roof of a church in Phoenix, on July 26.Mario Tama/Getty Images
The Arizona property market is not immune to the extremes of summer heat: A recent record streak of days in the mid-40s has “killed open houses. Showings are diminished,” Mr. Lavine said.
But such a pause is likely temporary. Phoenix still boasts what he calls “eight perfect months” of weather and for buyers, including the Canadians he often works with, the heat is “generally not a concern. It doesn’t dissuade them. We’ve always had hot months, so a few extra degrees isn’t going to make much of a difference.” Better, he said, to endure 40 above than 40 below.
Kinshasa Qualls moved with her family to Phoenix from Memphis at the beginning of July, just as the heat wave was starting, to take a job as a special educator. The heat worried her – it’s so intense, “if you’re not careful, it’s very easy to pass out” – but others assured her it was manageable, particularly compared with Tennessee’s oppressive humidity.
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The Phoenix area has come with other virtues. More plentiful jobs meant her fiancé found work quickly. Higher pay has balanced out higher living costs. “And honestly, I feel a lot safer here than back home,” she said.
“Actually, some of my family are considering moving here.”
Yet the intensity of this summer’s heat has raised new questions, even for those accustomed to singing Arizona’s virtues.
“You don’t have to shovel the heat,” Bruce Leiber, the president of Phoenix Realtors, likes to say. Recently, though, it’s been so hot that even common refuges offer little respite. Mr. Leiber’s pool thermometer hit 44 this week.
“At what point does Phoenix become unlivable?” he wonders.
The City of Phoenix Heat Response Program team volunteers Natalie Boyd, left, and David Coughenour, right, prepare heat relief kits for the public in need on July 20.Ross D. Franklin/The Associated Press
As best he can tell, that point remains years off. He hopes “scientists will figure it out – they’ll figure out the giant city umbrella or some way of managing temperature.”
Experience elsewhere shows people are only likely to reconsider their location if catastrophe strikes. New Orleans, for example, remains about a fifth less populous than it was before Hurricane Katrina. Indeed, hurricane-prone areas were the sole exception to the climate-risky places that have attracted migration in Prof. Indaco’s analysis.
The majority of homebuyers today remember the devastation of Katrina and, more recently, Irma and Michael. Not only is the possibility of hurricane flooding apparent to most people when assessing a coastal property, but so are ways to find a home with a lower likelihood of flooding.
“You know very clearly in which direction you need to move to reduce that risk,” Prof. Indaco said.
It’s time, he said, to ensure other climate risks are more clearly communicated. Governments can play a role, although he is hopeful that rising insurance rates will also “at least change the information signal – and maybe, through that, decisions.”